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Wednesday, December 9, 2015

Mnt Goat Wedn. Update - "We Must Re-focus and Pay Attention" Part 1 of 2

(Thank you George for  sending this to Dinar Recaps.)

UU6843 –“ We Must Re-focus and Pay Attention “  by Mnt Goat

Hello Everyone,

So today I am writing a short and to the point news letter. There is not a lot of new current news concerning the currency reform and the needed laws.  Until Abadi solidifies his reform coalition these last remaining needed laws will just sit there on the shelf and collect dust.   
 
Today’s News

Today is Wednesday December 9th   and yes we are now entering the second week of December already and still no RV. 

Many events seem to converge on the month of December, and in particular mid December, so let’s pay close attention to what is happening this month. I believe in retrospect we will say this was a very significant month.
Update: Currency Reform

I want to keep all of us focused on currency reform. Right now this is exactly what we should be watching in expectation of the launching of the lower denominations. Many sources have told me the plan of the CBI is to launch the lower denominations sometime before or by the end of the year. Will it occur? We can only wait and watch.

Can I scream it any louder,  again and again watch for ….CURRENCY REFORM….. CURRENCY REFORM !

So in my last news letter dated 12/7 (LINK), I had to clarify 4 points once again that many where still VERY confused over.  One of these items reviewed the currency auctions and I presented to you an article at that time topic.

Did you read the article? Did you learn anything from it?

So today we get yet another article on the same topic. 

As I keep saying – if the government or the CBI has multiple articles on the same topic all in just a matter of days it means they are concerned and thus this is where we should then focus our attention. They are about to do something in this area.

So what are they about to do with the currency auctions?

Months ago the CBI told us the currency auctions would be scaled down and by end of the year 2015 they would end. We are just weeks away.

Now we see a member of the finance ministry,  Majida al-Tamimi, being out spoken about the practices in these past auctions and how the selling of the Iraqi currency and its corruption has held back its true value from being realized.

I quote from today’s article below -  “pointed out the need to abolish auction currency called to distance his administration from quotas partisan and political” 

Tamimi also questions if other neighboring countries have currency auctions. They do not and it is a rhetorical  question.

I quote again from the article below - " stressing the necessity to run the central bank by specialists in the economy and financial sectors and not according to the quotas that have caused the destruction of the Iraq economy”.

So we see Tamami also does not like how the CBI is now being run. She feels the need for much more expertise. She sees corruption in the money auctions. So like I said I do not believe Dr Shabibi is back at the helm. He may poke his head up once in a while, give his opinion but he IS NOT RUNNING THE CBI !  This article alone is very strong evidence of it. I have presented evidence before but many still doubt what I say.

 Article Begins

TAMIMI: AUCTION CURRENCY DESTROYED IRAQ'S ECONOMY      

08/12/2015

BAGHDAD / JD / .. criticized a member of the parliamentary finance committee Majida al-Tamimi current Central Bank, as pointed out the need to abolish auction currency called to distance his administration from quotas partisan and political.

She said Tamimi, a statement posted on its official website and seen by Agency / KD / The quotas political and partisan confound the work of government institutions, particularly the economic ones, "stressing" the necessity to run the central bank by specialists economy and money, not according to the quotas that have caused the destruction of Iraq's economy.

"She said al-Tamimi said the currency auction in a large increase in spite of our pleas to the many Bank Central need to reduce the sales of hard currency, especially since these sales sometimes be covered by the reserve value negatively affect the quantity, "emphasizing" the importance of maintaining the size of the reserve and in line with international standards.

"The eye that" there is a great imbalance in the auction currency "which showed that the central bank customers from the private sector are buying the dollar at the official rate under the pretext of covering imports State and this move carry an imbalance intentional, the fact that the sale of the dollar at the official rate goes into the pockets of corrupt" .ostgrepett Tamimi of the "insistence of the central bank to hold an auction of currency", wondering "Is there in the neighboring countries of the coin auction as is the case in Iraq / end / 22


Article Ends

Article Begins

TAMIMI STRESSES THE ABOLITION OF THE CURRENCY AUCTION AND KEEP THE CENTRAL BANK FROM QUOTAS      

Baghdad-
criticized a member of the parliamentary finance committee Majida al-Tamimi current Central Bank, "stressing" the need to cancel the auction currency and the dimensions of Directors of the Bank for quotas partisan and political. "

Said al-Tamimi said in a statement received by the agency all of Iraq a copy of it, that "political and partisan quotas confused the work of government institutions, particularly the economic ones," stressing "the necessity to run the central bank by specialists economy and money, not according to the quotas that have caused the destruction of the economy Iraq.

"Tamimi said and explained," currency auction in a large increase in spite of our pleas many of the Central Bank of the need to reduce the sales of hard currency, especially since these sales sometimes be covered by the reserve value negatively affect the quantity, "stressing the" importance of maintaining the size of the reserve and in line with international standards.

"It pointed out that" there is a great imbalance in the currency auction, "noting that" the central bank customers from the private sector are buying the dollar at the official rate under the pretext of covering imports State and this move carry an imbalance intentional, the fact that the sale of the dollar at the official rate goes into the pockets corrupt.

"and was amazed Tamimi of the" insistence of the central bank to hold an auction of the currency, "she wondered," Is there in the neighboring countries, an auction of the coin as is the case in Iraq.

"and raised suspicions of corruption and operations of laundering money through the central bank auction where announced, specialized issues of integrity and crime a misdemeanor court Economic and money laundering, on 20 August issued sentences of imprisonment and a fine against officials in the Rafidain and North after being convicted on charges of corruption and money laundering, a banner earlier in the presence of 20 defendants in this some issues largely chairman.

"The Federal Court Supreme, announced on the sixth of July, several articles unconstitutional in budget 2015 law, including Article 50, the judge to "compel the Central Bank identifies sales of hard currency [the dollar] in its daily auction ceiling does not exceed $ 75 million a day."

with the exception of the Governor Central Bank and the Agency on the Keywords, the court's decision as "came in accordance with the Constitution and the Law on the Central Bank, which is a great importance because of its impact in promoting and supporting the independence of the Bank and remove him from influencing the policies and decisions."

The relationships declared in 20 of the month of November last that the bank reserves foreign exchange of 60 billion dollars, "adding that" enough for six months, "noting that" the Central Bank is working on the application of parallel policy to maintain the overall stability of prices and curb inflation, "


Article Ends

Article Begins

AN URGENT NEED FOR ACTION TO RAISE THE VALUE OF THE DINAR IN THE EXCHANGE      

Dec 6, 2015   

BAGHDAD - Imad emirate
There are economic convinced strong that the decline of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate with a surplus in the balance of payments reflects the fact that the national currency undervalued real value, so there is an urgent need for action to raise the value of the dinar in the exchange market through direct and constant intervention of the Central Bank Iraq to reduce the sale price of the dollar against the dinar in the currency auction.

This form-oriented basis points in the direction of strengthening the exchange value of the dinar against the dollar, by taking administrative decisions in a row by the monetary authority, this argument completely intact from the point of this analysis Aloguetsada.dmn oriented academic d said. Awad Fadhil importance of this road in the exchange rate management to be desirable high domestic inflation rate, and raise the value of national currency against the dollar from 2004 until the first quarter of 2010 was in line with the objective to be achieved, a stop the rise in the general level of prices, and strive to reduce the rate of inflation at acceptable levels economically, but who got to the monetary authority continued to approach raising the value of the dinar against the dollar (ie reduce the value of the dollar denominated in dinars) after the decline in the rate of inflation and to control it and install the official exchange rate at a level may not necessarily reflect the level of equilibrium in the market. And when you return to economic indicators easily realize that increasing the degree of intervention in the exchange market and the persistent administrative move towards the low value of the dollar or the selling price was not officially compatible with fundamentals Alkla.ooodh d.Awad when devoting the vast proportion of resources in favor of consumption this with limited capacity in the absorptive INVESTING energy, low competitiveness of industries producing goods traded (except oil), and the tyranny of service activities and the acceleration of price levels and the high level of unemployment and the decline in the relative productivity of industrial and agricultural sector and high production costs All of this leads to the effect brake on Aloguetsad.utaba development:
It is practically impossible that a single monetary tool you can achieve more than one goal has not been used other tools to achieve especially necessary adjustments both financial and structural including help to put the economy on track, the dosing sequence in adjust the exchange rate administratively was in itself incompatible with the economy as a whole as a result of this situation that eventually become the national market value of the national currency is determined in response to market forces, which in turn reflect the economic and political situation in the country is desired.

It is normal in this case to become the nominal exchange local currency denominated higher than its market value any higher than its equilibrium, reflecting the possibility of the dinar exchange in the market price moved to a lower level than the level at which settled upon by government intervention and the imposition of decision Aladarei.okhls to say:

This economic vision strengthened through the big difference between the dollar sale scheduled to price in a market auction Central Bank and its price generated in the free market by supply and demand forces of reaction, since no longer the difference confined to the rank of decimal but exceeded for up to two places decimal places, and so is no longer within the limits or economically acceptable ranges at the international level and Mahla.alomr other is that private demand for the national currency prevailing market price or the current is less than the total special offer, and that the central bank intervenes in the foreign exchange market to buy the difference in order to support the local currency internationally. This shows clearly that the Iraqi Central Bank intervenes to artificially create intentional or on the request of the national currency against the Show more foreign currency, so that the quantity purchased from the local currency, which was higher than can be purchased in normal circumstances to sustain high and stable exchange rate.


Article Ends

Discontinuing the money auctions at the end of December

So now here is the juicy part of today’s news.

More FACTS - The CBI has told us in two articles already, one of which I presented to you in my past news letter, that they will scale down the money auctions to the point of discontinuing them at the end of this year (meaning the end of 2015). Do you really understand what the auctions do for Iraq?

The CBI sells dinar at these auctions for US dollars. This helps increase the CBI reserves. Countries do not keep their own currencies in their reserves. Instead they keep valuable, stable currencies of other countries. Thus Iraq wants to collect US dollars. But the corruption in the auctions is that the currency is being sold at an undervalued rate. This is at the heart of the problem. This is what is driving down the rate.

Let’s now look at a recent article I provided below. It is from a financial expert in Iraq.   

The most interesting part of the article below is when the financial expert says and I quote – “calling on the central bank to the need to implement the project to delete the three zeroes instead of resorting to the issuance of new editions (referring to the 50k, 100k and 500 notes) may affect the trade balance in the market”.

​Link to PART 2


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