Wealthwatch Tuesday Evening Chat 12-29-15 Part 2 of 2

WEALTHWATCH 12-29-15
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Wealthwatch Tuesday Evening Chat 12-29-15   Part 2 of 2
 
chattels: Tuesday, December 29, 2015 The Liberation Of Iraq’s Ramadi And What Comes Next - Joel Wing's MUSINGS ON IRAQ
 
chattels: wealthwatch.world/showthr...
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chattels: Both the taking of Ramadi by the Islamic State and its recapture by the Iraqi forces were a long time coming. IS attacked the city for almost a year, while the operation to free it took five months. The aftermath of securing the area, re-establishing governance and services will take even longer.
 
Despite these difficulties the liberation of Ramadi was a huge setback for the militants proving that they lack the resources to hold urban areas in Iraq, and a boost for the Iraqi government that was severely criticized for losing the city in the first place.
 ~~~

rocknrollbus: Iraq PM's helicopter takes ISIL ground fire in Ramadi

http://ift.tt/1JNeiNA...
http://ift.tt/1OvVgOJ
 
 
chattels: This was a huge accomplishment for the ISF, which had been humiliated back in May. Not only was it able to liberate the city, the ISF did it largely on their own with Shiite Hashd units mostly on the periphery.
 
This helped PM Abadi as well because he could say his forces and leadership were the right way to take in the fight against IS unlike the pro-Iranian groups who quickly got bogged down in Fallujah, and worked against the Ramadi campaign from the start. Most importantly it exposed the Islamic State.
 
The group can put up a grinding defense, but it lacks the fighters to hold any city against a large and determined government force. At the same time, reaching the middle of a city is only the start of the larger battle to rid Iraq of the insurgency.
 
chattels: 80% of the city is reportedly destroyed, and a member of the Anbar Council believed that it would take 10 years worth of budgets to rebuild it. None of these issues are easy to tackle.
 
 Fighting will continue in the city and its environs and could quickly deteriorate to what it was like right before the city fell with neighborhoods under IS control. The tribal vengeance can only be deterred if the government is strong, but it may not have the forces or judicial capacity to fully deal with the situation.
 
Finally, real stability can not return to Ramadi until it is reconstructed, services are restored and the authorities have real power over the entire area. These are the challenges that lie ahead and could very well be replayed in future military operations in places like Fallujah and Mosul.
 
 If the government can’t get Ramadi right it may not be up to the task of providing real security to other cities after they are freed of IS in the future. The victory in the city therefore, brings both promise and peril that will play out in the coming months.

chattels: Good article worth reading. Note the Sources cited.

rocknrollbus: I like Joel Wing!
chattels: He is a serious and well informed observer of Iraq and Syria.
 
chattels: IMO
 
chattels: Sohaib Alrawi ‏@Sohaib_Alrawi 8h8 hours ago #Ramadi is liberated. @HaiderAlAbadi #اthe Sunni governor of Anbar province.
 
rocknrollbus: ‹@chattels› ‹@chattels› ‹@chattels› What did they ever determine with the Kurds with anything over 550,000brls of oil?
 
chattels: ‹@rocknrollbus› Budget excerpts and comments I have read say that ALL production goes through Baghdad
 
chattels: 550,000 barrels is the threshold for payment of the 17%
 
chattels: Disbursements to be made under supervision of Abadi
 
chattels: BUT, the Cabinet filed suit over " additions " made after approval by the COM
 
chattels: those " additions ", amendments or changes are unclear to me
 
chattels: See Post # 172 wealthwatch.world/showthr...
http://ift.tt/1Jfxjc8
 
 
chattels: "the appeal included all additives in the budget of the parliament and that are not listed by the government in the bill law."
 
chattels: To my knowledge President Masum has not ratified the budget bill and I have not seen an English translation of the entire budget as yet
 
chattels: Laws / Budget bill are deemed ratified 15 days after receipt by the President per the Iraqi Constitution as I recall. Budget was passed on December 16, so the earliest Masum could have received it was that same day
 
rocknrollbus: Interesting to see if both sides stick to the agreement this time...........
rocknrollbus: That's right, 15 days.
rocknrollbus: LJ used to be my mentor.........
 
chattels: 15 days would mean the 31st of this month or the first of January at the earliest by my sums

rocknrollbus: Tag........your it!!
 
chattels: ‹@rocknrollbus› :)
 chattels: Then publication in the gazette if memory serves
 
rocknrollbus: Do you also have a "Sandbox Sheepskin"?
 rocknrollbus: Yes, Gazette makes it law.
 
chattels: friction burns from the sandbox is more likely :)
 
rocknrollbus: bwaaaaahahahahaha
 
chattels: Some gurus declaring budget goes into effect on the 1st, but how can that be ? Many bills / laws state that they are effective upon the date of publication in the gazette
 
chattels: Several leaders in Iraq calling to expedite restoration of Ramadi, but where will that money come from ? Not the Iraqi budget.
 
chattels: One Sunni leader states that it will take 10 years budgeting cycles to accomplish a complete restoration
 
rocknrollbus: Saw that...........10 years!!
 
chattels: Ramadi needs more police to maintain control / security in the near term according to one observer
 
chattels: Fallujah, Sharqat, Hawiija and Mosul yet to come
 
chattels: Mosul liberation not possible without Peshmerga, says Iraqi minister

wealthwatch.world/showthr...
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rocknrollbus: Pesh=before merg=death
 
chattels: Peshmerga means "one who confronts death" or "one who faces death".
chattels: " before " may equate to " confront ", eh ?
 
rocknrollbus: Prolly
 
rocknrollbus: From all I've heard from vet friends, they're some real bad-***!!
 
chattels: they seem prepared to give " the last full measure of devotion upon the altar of freedom ", to paraphrase Mr. Lincoln
chattels: ‹@rocknrollbus› SouthWestFloridaGuy used the abbreviation " prolly ". He was a good man.

rocknrollbus: Where is he now? I remember him!
chattels: He died in his sleep a couple of years back
chattels: Very young
 
rocknrollbus: Oh, I did not know that. When I'm out on tour, I don't have time to read nearly as much. But I do remember him.
 rocknrollbus: Like Tim on IQD.
rocknrollbus: Good man!!
 rocknrollbus: Marine!!
 
rocknrollbus: Thanx again C for the schoolin'!! Gonna grab a sammich.............
 
chattels: ‹@rocknrollbus› Laterz :)
 
chattels: Is a new approach needed in the war on IS in Iraq ? Al-Monitor, THE PULSE OF THE MIDDLE EAST : wealthwatch.world/showthr...
http://ift.tt/1Jfxjca
 
chattels: Although achievements have been made on the ground and the Islamic State suffered setbacks, military experts believe other measures should be taken to completely eliminate the organization in Iraq. The war on IS launched by the US-led coalition in Iraq in September 2014 yielded positive results, with the organization losing 14% of its territory as of Dec. 14, according to estimates by the IHS Conflict Monitor team.

In spite of successive defeats with the loss of the city of Tikrit, the contested Beiji refinery complex, the transit route connecting Mosul to the city of Raqqa in Syria, and most recently Ramadi, the organization is far from being destroyed. “

IS has had debilitating setbacks from a military perspective,” retired Col. Harry Schute, consulting adviser to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) on security affairs, told Al-Monitor.
 
IS has shifted to a defensive position, as stated in a report Dec. 21 by the Institute for the Study of War.
 
The report underlined that IS had launched spoiling attacks across Iraq on multiple fronts, in Beiji, Makhoul and Sinjar in northern Iraq, as well as Hit and Ramadi in western Iraq.
 
The organization has led “diversionary and probing attacks near Tikrit, Samarra and Fallujah, to forestall any upcoming anti-IS operations elsewhere in Iraq and force anti-IS forces shift resources to re-secure targeted areas,” as per the same report.
 
Front lines in Iraq have been marked by a movement of ebb and flow, more specifically in the contested sector of Beiji, which changed hands several times in the last year.
 
chattels: Experts say that to avoid a reversal of IS losses, new measures should be introduced, some of which are already under discussion or have started being implemented.

Read more   chattels: wealthwatch.world/showthr...
http://ift.tt/1Jfxjca

 
chattels: 12-29-2015 Newshound Guru Enorrste Article: "Forthcoming meeting between Baghdad and Erbil for the application of the customs tariff law in all outlets" If they apply the tariffs then the cost of goods will go up inside Iraq since Iraq imports the vast majority of its products.
 
The tariffs will help the GOI in terms of getting them more money, but at the cost of higher prices for the people. Unless they also raise the value of the dinar in sync with the introduction of tariffs this will lead to inflation in Iraq.

Therefore one of two things will happen: they will either postpone the tariffs or they will institute the float with the introduction of tariffs. Time will tell.
 
chattels: " If they apply the tariffs ................. "

chattels: Inflation historically ( Since 2003 ) is very low in Iraq. How inflationary would the imposition of tariffs be is the question, IMO. A major factor in Shabbibi's speech to the Chamber of Commerce in D.C. years ago about influences upon a change in the value of the IQD was inflation as I recall.
 
chattels: What amount of inflation would be unacceptable to the current pricing of the IQD ?
 
chattels: Even with some inflation there is the consideration of the relative stability of Iraq, IMO.
 
chattels: We just do not know the conditions precedent or attendant to an increase in the value of the IQD. Anyone who tells you that they do is deceiving themselves and maybe you, IMO.
 
chattels: We are not supposed to be able to anticipate such an event(s). We flatter ourselves to profess to know anything with reliable certainty about our prospective liquidity event.
 
chattels: Dr. Shabibi – Video – US Chamber of Commerce in Washington DC – April 19, 2011 - Courtesy of Mr. IQD : http://ift.tt/1guhl0g...
http://ift.tt/1N599jV
  
chattels: Can tourism be revived in ancient Iraqi city? AL-DIWANIYAH, Iraq — The ancient city of Nuffar, just south of al-Diwaniyah City near Baghdad, dates back to 2500 BCE. Nuffar (or Nippur) was a holy city to the ancient Iraqis of the Sumerian and Babylonian civilizations. 

Read more: http://ift.tt/1U6ADse...
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chattels: Baghdad described the head of a coalition of law Nuri al-Maliki on Tuesday, the execution of former President Saddam Hussein as a victory for the will of the oppressed major defeat for the tyrants, as called for by what he called a "seducer them" to leave the "deviant thought" to the outlawed Baath party. 

​Read more: http://ift.tt/1PiT0Hm...
http://ift.tt/1Jfxjcc
 
chattels: Mr. Maliki reminding Iraqis of his strength and resolve, IMO.

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