Millionday Friday Roundtable 8/7/15
Welcome to dinarupdates.com for Roundtable with Millionday!!
Millionday: WELCOME TO RT HOLD YOUR HATS
Millionday: THE TITLE -- HOLD YOUR HAT
Millionday: Fitch assigns Iraq a sovereign credit rating
Millionday: WHOOPOW HERE COMES THE REPORT THIS IS GREAT NEWS
Millionday: Fitch Ratings has assigned Iraq a long-term foreign currency Issuer default rating (IDR) of 'B-' with a stable outlook. The agency has also assigned a country ceiling of 'B-' and a short-term IDR of 'B'.
~~~
Welcome to dinarupdates.com for Roundtable with Millionday!!
Millionday: WELCOME TO RT HOLD YOUR HATS
Millionday: THE TITLE -- HOLD YOUR HAT
Millionday: Fitch assigns Iraq a sovereign credit rating
Millionday: WHOOPOW HERE COMES THE REPORT THIS IS GREAT NEWS
Millionday: Fitch Ratings has assigned Iraq a long-term foreign currency Issuer default rating (IDR) of 'B-' with a stable outlook. The agency has also assigned a country ceiling of 'B-' and a short-term IDR of 'B'.
~~~
No surprise perhaps that political risk and insecurity are among the highest faced by any sovereign rated by Fitch. Sectarian conflict has raged with varying intensity since 2003, ISIS militants currently effectively hold three of the country’s 18 provinces, relations with the Kurdish regional government are volatile and governance indicators are exceptionally weak
Millionday: NOTE -- WITH A CURRENCY THAT IS NOT INTERNATIONALLY RECOGNIZED YET THEY GOT A B-
NOW UNDERSTAND THEY ARE SAYING WITH A STABLE OUTLOOK
Millionday: Iraq holds the world's fifth largest oil reserves and significant amounts of gas. Oil production has risen rapidly to 3.3m b/d in May 2015, from an average of 2.4m b/d in 2010, with Iraq becoming the world's second largest exporter in 2014.
Production costs are low. The bulk of oil production facilities and infrastructure are away from areas of domestic insecurity. Investment is under way to further raise production capacity, although infrastructure bottlenecks remain a constraint and investment plans were set back by payment arrears in 2014.
Millionday: NOTE -- THE SET BACKS WERE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT --
Millionday: Even so, Iraq's fiscal position has deteriorated rapidly since 2013 and Fitch forecasts a double-digit fiscal deficit for 2015, owing to lower oil prices, higher military spending and costs associated with civil conflict.
Savings buffers built during previous years of high oil prices have been largely eroded and the deficit will be financed by debt, likely including a eurobond and funding through an IMF rapid financing instrument that was approved in July.
Rising oil production and prices should lead to a narrowing of the budget deficit in 2016, although it will remain large and another more substantive IMF programme is likely in 2016. We forecast a small deficit for 2017. The government has cleared the USD9bn of payment arrears to international oil companies that were run up in 2014.
Millionday: NOTE -- LIKELY INCLUDING A EUROBOND AND FUNDING THROUGH THE IMF -- APPROVED IN JULY - NOTE -- LOOK AT THAT -- RISING OIL PRODUCTION AND >>>>>>PRICES SHOULD NARROW THE DEFICIT NEXT YEAR
Millionday: NOTE -- READ EVERYWORD
Millionday: Government debt is forecast by Fitch at 51% of GDP at end-2015, in line with the 'B' range median and sharply up on the end-2014 level owing to deficit financing and a contraction in nominal GDP. Debt/GDP is forecast to peak in 2016.
Debt reflects the inclusion of funds (and accumulated interest) provided by GCC countries during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war amounting to 22% of estimated 2015 GDP.
Iraq faces no pressure to repay the GCC debt, which has not been subject to a haircut of 80% in line with terms to the Paris Club (in a 2004 restructuring covering debt under the pre-2003 regime).
Millionday: NOTE -- THIS IS REFERRING TO THE MANY AGREEMENTS OF DEBT FORGIVENESS WE SAW OVER THE YEARS AND THE EXPECTED GAIN IN THE GDP---GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ---
Millionday: >>>>Commodity dependence is among the highest of all rated-sovereigns. Oil accounts for around 40% of GDP and over 90% of fiscal and current external receipts.
Despite some modest initiatives to introduce new excise and consumption taxes this year, there is little prospect of revenue diversification over our forecast period to end-2017. Limited economic policy tools complicate the response to oil price volatility.
Millionday: NOTE -- EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE PLANNING TO ADD TARIFF -- TAXATION -- THE IMPACT IS NOT EXPECTED FOR OVER A YEAR --
COMMON SENSE TELLS US WHY --- THEY BLOWN UP AND NEED EVERYTHING --
SO TO EXPECT DEBT TO BE PAID OR ANY GAINS WOULD BE SILLY WITH THE EXPENSES EXPECTED
Millionday: NOTE -- HOWEVER -- THE CREDIT RATING DETERMINES THEIR INTEREST RATE --- AND BY THE WAY IT IS B- FROM FINCH NOT 7 OR SOME NUMBER BECAUSE THAT SIMPLY IS NOT HOW IT IS RATED -- PERIOD
Millionday: Fitch estimates Iraq's net external creditor position to have totalled 22% of GDP at end-2014, reflecting current account surpluses averaging 7.5% of GDP in the decade to 2014.
However, we forecast a current account deficit of 7.4% of GDP for 2015; this should gradually narrow as oil revenues rise.
Foreign exchange reserves, at USD67bn at end-2014, were sufficient to cover over 10 months of current external payments. External debt service ratios are well below the peer median.
Millionday: NOTE -- OBVIOUSLY FROM FINAL ACCOUNTS DUE TO THIS BEING THE YEAR 2015----SO 2014 FIGURES COME FROM THAT YEAR FINAL ACCOUNTS ETC ---
BUT THEY EXPECT OBVIOUSLY -- GDP CHANGES AND OIL PRODUCTION TO GAIN SO THE REPORT OF IT GOING TO THE GLOBAL MARKET COMES TO MIND -- SMILE
Millionday:>>>> Non-oil GDP contracted by an estimated 9% in 2014 and Fitch forecasts it to decline faster in 2015, owing to the impact of the lack of security in the country. This is offsetting the boost to GDP from rising oil production. A return to growth looks possible in 2016.
Inflation is lower than peers, averaging 3.7% over the five years to end-2014, supported by the nominal anchor of the exchange rate peg to the USD. Weak domestic demand and subdued external price pressures have pulled down inflation to below 2% so far in 2015
Millionday: NOTE -- READ VERY CAREFULLY THE NEXT PART OF THIS
Millionday: The banking sector remains under-developed and fundamentally weak. Private sector credit-to-GDP was just 8.1% at end-2014, the lowest of any rated sovereign.
The two large state-owned banks Al-Rafidain and Al-Rasheed, which have high NPLs and exceptionally low capital adequacy, dominate the sector. There has been little progress in restructuring these banks; an exercise that Fitch assumes will require recapitalization by the government.
Millionday: NOTE -- THE BANKS REQUIRE MONEY -- DINAR -- FUNDS--RECAPITALIZATION -- SOME CASH
Millionday: NOTE -- WHAT IS THE PROBLEM STATED HERE???? >>>>>>
Monetary policy flexibility is constrained by the exchange rate peg, weak banking system and limited monetary and credit transmission in the economy. At times this year, a small spread between the parallel market and official exchange rate has opened up as the central bank holds limited auctions of foreign exchange.
Millionday: NOTE -- THE SPREAD THEY WORKED TO MINIMIZE HAS GOTTEN SMALLER --(PARALLEL )
Millionday: Iraq scores the worst of all Fitch-rated sovereigns on the composite World Bank governance indicator, reflecting not only insecurity and political instability but also corruption, government ineffectiveness and weak institutions.
Doing Business indicators are below the peer median, although there is outperformance in some areas. GDP per capita, at USD5,300, is almost 50% greater than the peer median, but the Human Development Index is in line.
Millionday: NOTE -- CURRENT CONDITION IS NOT A SHOCK
Millionday: Fitch forecasts Brent crude to average USD65/b in 2015, USD75/b in 2016 and USD80/b in 2017. Iraqi oil production is conservatively forecast to increase to an average of 4.2m b/d in 2017.
It also assumes that the Kurdish region will not try to break away over the forecast period and that periodic tensions will not descend into serious military confrontation with the federal government or result in serious damage to oil export infrastructure.
Moreover, the ratings agency assumes ongoing serious security threats, with large parts of the north east outside of the government's control.
Millionday: SO IN OTHER WORDS -- THEY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FORWARD - WHOOPOW
billionaire: Will Iraq be getting a rating from Moody's and S&P as well?
Millionday: THEY WILL BE EXPECTING TO I AM SURE
Bax: That crude oil average seems a tad high... it has never been at 65 this year... I read a report yesterday from Reuters... that said with the Iran embargo sanctions being lifted... the price per barrel of oil could go as low as 37 dollars by April of next year.... thats HALF of what Fitch is predicting... it is in the High 40s today
Millionday: I READ THAT REUTERS REPORT AND DIDNT REALLY THINK IT MADE MUCH SENSE BUT CANT EXPLAIN WHY FINCH IS PREDICTING
Bax: Its just that if it goes down... the ship is gonna sink
Millionday: THEY ARE EXPECTING UP
slh5282: I just came in , DID THEY GET THE CREDIT RATING YET AND IF SO WHAT IS IT?
Millionday: B-
slh5282: THAT IS NOT THE BEST NEWS IS IT?
Millionday: A CREDIT RATING WHEN THEY DIDNT HAVE ONE SHOWS CONFIDENCE IN IRAQ GOING GLOBAL
rcookie: Isnt B- Fitch's lowest possible rating on WB Governance indicator...meaning "material default risk is present"
Millionday: IT MEANS THAT THEY GAVE THEN A CREDIT RATING ON REALITY AND LITTLE HOPE INVOLVED OF GROWTH --- IMO
Millionday: THIS IS GREAT NEWS EVERYONE -- GREAT
jd: Another substantive program in 2016 does not sound like a RV anytime soon to me. Sounds like more loans from the IMF is needed next year. Maybe Fitch does not believe in a RV??
Millionday: NOTE -- WITH A CURRENCY THAT IS NOT INTERNATIONALLY RECOGNIZED YET THEY GOT A B-
NOW UNDERSTAND THEY ARE SAYING WITH A STABLE OUTLOOK
Millionday: Iraq holds the world's fifth largest oil reserves and significant amounts of gas. Oil production has risen rapidly to 3.3m b/d in May 2015, from an average of 2.4m b/d in 2010, with Iraq becoming the world's second largest exporter in 2014.
Production costs are low. The bulk of oil production facilities and infrastructure are away from areas of domestic insecurity. Investment is under way to further raise production capacity, although infrastructure bottlenecks remain a constraint and investment plans were set back by payment arrears in 2014.
Millionday: NOTE -- THE SET BACKS WERE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT --
Millionday: Even so, Iraq's fiscal position has deteriorated rapidly since 2013 and Fitch forecasts a double-digit fiscal deficit for 2015, owing to lower oil prices, higher military spending and costs associated with civil conflict.
Savings buffers built during previous years of high oil prices have been largely eroded and the deficit will be financed by debt, likely including a eurobond and funding through an IMF rapid financing instrument that was approved in July.
Rising oil production and prices should lead to a narrowing of the budget deficit in 2016, although it will remain large and another more substantive IMF programme is likely in 2016. We forecast a small deficit for 2017. The government has cleared the USD9bn of payment arrears to international oil companies that were run up in 2014.
Millionday: NOTE -- LIKELY INCLUDING A EUROBOND AND FUNDING THROUGH THE IMF -- APPROVED IN JULY - NOTE -- LOOK AT THAT -- RISING OIL PRODUCTION AND >>>>>>PRICES SHOULD NARROW THE DEFICIT NEXT YEAR
Millionday: NOTE -- READ EVERYWORD
Millionday: Government debt is forecast by Fitch at 51% of GDP at end-2015, in line with the 'B' range median and sharply up on the end-2014 level owing to deficit financing and a contraction in nominal GDP. Debt/GDP is forecast to peak in 2016.
Debt reflects the inclusion of funds (and accumulated interest) provided by GCC countries during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war amounting to 22% of estimated 2015 GDP.
Iraq faces no pressure to repay the GCC debt, which has not been subject to a haircut of 80% in line with terms to the Paris Club (in a 2004 restructuring covering debt under the pre-2003 regime).
Millionday: NOTE -- THIS IS REFERRING TO THE MANY AGREEMENTS OF DEBT FORGIVENESS WE SAW OVER THE YEARS AND THE EXPECTED GAIN IN THE GDP---GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ---
Millionday: >>>>Commodity dependence is among the highest of all rated-sovereigns. Oil accounts for around 40% of GDP and over 90% of fiscal and current external receipts.
Despite some modest initiatives to introduce new excise and consumption taxes this year, there is little prospect of revenue diversification over our forecast period to end-2017. Limited economic policy tools complicate the response to oil price volatility.
Millionday: NOTE -- EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE PLANNING TO ADD TARIFF -- TAXATION -- THE IMPACT IS NOT EXPECTED FOR OVER A YEAR --
COMMON SENSE TELLS US WHY --- THEY BLOWN UP AND NEED EVERYTHING --
SO TO EXPECT DEBT TO BE PAID OR ANY GAINS WOULD BE SILLY WITH THE EXPENSES EXPECTED
Millionday: NOTE -- HOWEVER -- THE CREDIT RATING DETERMINES THEIR INTEREST RATE --- AND BY THE WAY IT IS B- FROM FINCH NOT 7 OR SOME NUMBER BECAUSE THAT SIMPLY IS NOT HOW IT IS RATED -- PERIOD
Millionday: Fitch estimates Iraq's net external creditor position to have totalled 22% of GDP at end-2014, reflecting current account surpluses averaging 7.5% of GDP in the decade to 2014.
However, we forecast a current account deficit of 7.4% of GDP for 2015; this should gradually narrow as oil revenues rise.
Foreign exchange reserves, at USD67bn at end-2014, were sufficient to cover over 10 months of current external payments. External debt service ratios are well below the peer median.
Millionday: NOTE -- OBVIOUSLY FROM FINAL ACCOUNTS DUE TO THIS BEING THE YEAR 2015----SO 2014 FIGURES COME FROM THAT YEAR FINAL ACCOUNTS ETC ---
BUT THEY EXPECT OBVIOUSLY -- GDP CHANGES AND OIL PRODUCTION TO GAIN SO THE REPORT OF IT GOING TO THE GLOBAL MARKET COMES TO MIND -- SMILE
Millionday:>>>> Non-oil GDP contracted by an estimated 9% in 2014 and Fitch forecasts it to decline faster in 2015, owing to the impact of the lack of security in the country. This is offsetting the boost to GDP from rising oil production. A return to growth looks possible in 2016.
Inflation is lower than peers, averaging 3.7% over the five years to end-2014, supported by the nominal anchor of the exchange rate peg to the USD. Weak domestic demand and subdued external price pressures have pulled down inflation to below 2% so far in 2015
Millionday: NOTE -- READ VERY CAREFULLY THE NEXT PART OF THIS
Millionday: The banking sector remains under-developed and fundamentally weak. Private sector credit-to-GDP was just 8.1% at end-2014, the lowest of any rated sovereign.
The two large state-owned banks Al-Rafidain and Al-Rasheed, which have high NPLs and exceptionally low capital adequacy, dominate the sector. There has been little progress in restructuring these banks; an exercise that Fitch assumes will require recapitalization by the government.
Millionday: NOTE -- THE BANKS REQUIRE MONEY -- DINAR -- FUNDS--RECAPITALIZATION -- SOME CASH
Millionday: NOTE -- WHAT IS THE PROBLEM STATED HERE???? >>>>>>
Monetary policy flexibility is constrained by the exchange rate peg, weak banking system and limited monetary and credit transmission in the economy. At times this year, a small spread between the parallel market and official exchange rate has opened up as the central bank holds limited auctions of foreign exchange.
Millionday: NOTE -- THE SPREAD THEY WORKED TO MINIMIZE HAS GOTTEN SMALLER --(PARALLEL )
Millionday: Iraq scores the worst of all Fitch-rated sovereigns on the composite World Bank governance indicator, reflecting not only insecurity and political instability but also corruption, government ineffectiveness and weak institutions.
Doing Business indicators are below the peer median, although there is outperformance in some areas. GDP per capita, at USD5,300, is almost 50% greater than the peer median, but the Human Development Index is in line.
Millionday: NOTE -- CURRENT CONDITION IS NOT A SHOCK
Millionday: Fitch forecasts Brent crude to average USD65/b in 2015, USD75/b in 2016 and USD80/b in 2017. Iraqi oil production is conservatively forecast to increase to an average of 4.2m b/d in 2017.
It also assumes that the Kurdish region will not try to break away over the forecast period and that periodic tensions will not descend into serious military confrontation with the federal government or result in serious damage to oil export infrastructure.
Moreover, the ratings agency assumes ongoing serious security threats, with large parts of the north east outside of the government's control.
Millionday: SO IN OTHER WORDS -- THEY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FORWARD - WHOOPOW
billionaire: Will Iraq be getting a rating from Moody's and S&P as well?
Millionday: THEY WILL BE EXPECTING TO I AM SURE
Bax: That crude oil average seems a tad high... it has never been at 65 this year... I read a report yesterday from Reuters... that said with the Iran embargo sanctions being lifted... the price per barrel of oil could go as low as 37 dollars by April of next year.... thats HALF of what Fitch is predicting... it is in the High 40s today
Millionday: I READ THAT REUTERS REPORT AND DIDNT REALLY THINK IT MADE MUCH SENSE BUT CANT EXPLAIN WHY FINCH IS PREDICTING
Bax: Its just that if it goes down... the ship is gonna sink
Millionday: THEY ARE EXPECTING UP
slh5282: I just came in , DID THEY GET THE CREDIT RATING YET AND IF SO WHAT IS IT?
Millionday: B-
slh5282: THAT IS NOT THE BEST NEWS IS IT?
Millionday: A CREDIT RATING WHEN THEY DIDNT HAVE ONE SHOWS CONFIDENCE IN IRAQ GOING GLOBAL
rcookie: Isnt B- Fitch's lowest possible rating on WB Governance indicator...meaning "material default risk is present"
Millionday: IT MEANS THAT THEY GAVE THEN A CREDIT RATING ON REALITY AND LITTLE HOPE INVOLVED OF GROWTH --- IMO
Millionday: THIS IS GREAT NEWS EVERYONE -- GREAT
jd: Another substantive program in 2016 does not sound like a RV anytime soon to me. Sounds like more loans from the IMF is needed next year. Maybe Fitch does not believe in a RV??
Millionday: I AM VERY EXCITED OVER THIS RATING - LET ME BRING SOME MORE ON IT
itsaboutjesus (IAJ): sorry, just came in, and saw that MD you mentioned "B-" ... it Iraq' credit rating live??
Millionday: FINCH GAVE IRAQ CREDIT RATING
Millionday: a pledge from Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, the announcement of a comprehensive plan of reform and work to implement them, as called for political forces to cooperate with him in the implementation of the reform program.
Information Office of Ebadi said in a statement, that "the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, announced his commitment to the directives Value Supreme religious authority, which expressed concerns and aspirations of the Iraqi people."
Millionday: NOTE -- ABADI ANNOUNCED PLAN FOR REFORMS
Millionday: The statement added that al-Abadi pledged to announce a comprehensive plan of reform and work to implement them.
He called on Iraqi Prime Minister, the political forces to cooperate with him in the implementation of the plan.
The religious authority has called for Friday, Abbadi not hesitate to remove the administrator is not appropriate even that was supported by, and asked him to disclose the obstructionists to the reform process.
Millionday: SO WHAT WE ARE READING IS THAT ABADI IS PLEDGING TO RELEASE THE PLANS OF REFORMS
slh5282: DOES THAT ALSO MEAN HE IS PLANNING TO RELEASE THE PLANS FOR THE VALUATION OF THE DINAR, THE BONDS, AND THE BALANCE OF THE LAWS, NOT NECCESARILY IN THAT ORDER?
Millionday: THE REFORMS ARE ADMIN--ECONOMIC -- POLITICAL-BANKING ---THE NATIONAL RECONCILIATION
Millionday: EVERYONE I HAVE A VERY IMPORTANT APPOINTMENT JUST HAD TO SHOW YOU THIS GREAT NEWS
http://ift.tt/1TczJY8
itsaboutjesus (IAJ): sorry, just came in, and saw that MD you mentioned "B-" ... it Iraq' credit rating live??
Millionday: FINCH GAVE IRAQ CREDIT RATING
Millionday: a pledge from Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, the announcement of a comprehensive plan of reform and work to implement them, as called for political forces to cooperate with him in the implementation of the reform program.
Information Office of Ebadi said in a statement, that "the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, announced his commitment to the directives Value Supreme religious authority, which expressed concerns and aspirations of the Iraqi people."
Millionday: NOTE -- ABADI ANNOUNCED PLAN FOR REFORMS
Millionday: The statement added that al-Abadi pledged to announce a comprehensive plan of reform and work to implement them.
He called on Iraqi Prime Minister, the political forces to cooperate with him in the implementation of the plan.
The religious authority has called for Friday, Abbadi not hesitate to remove the administrator is not appropriate even that was supported by, and asked him to disclose the obstructionists to the reform process.
Millionday: SO WHAT WE ARE READING IS THAT ABADI IS PLEDGING TO RELEASE THE PLANS OF REFORMS
slh5282: DOES THAT ALSO MEAN HE IS PLANNING TO RELEASE THE PLANS FOR THE VALUATION OF THE DINAR, THE BONDS, AND THE BALANCE OF THE LAWS, NOT NECCESARILY IN THAT ORDER?
Millionday: THE REFORMS ARE ADMIN--ECONOMIC -- POLITICAL-BANKING ---THE NATIONAL RECONCILIATION
Millionday: EVERYONE I HAVE A VERY IMPORTANT APPOINTMENT JUST HAD TO SHOW YOU THIS GREAT NEWS
http://ift.tt/1TczJY8
via Dinar Recaps - Our Blog http://ift.tt/1JRTeVd
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