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Sunday, August 30, 2015

Mnt Goat Sunday Update - “Onward to Reform Phase III”  Part 1 of 2

(Thank you George for emailing this to Dinar Recaps.)

UU6734 – “Onward to Reform Phase III” by Mnt Goat


Hello Everyone,

Just wanted to pop in to give an overview of what we should expect from Iraq in these coming weeks and what we just experienced this week. We are now moving into September. Do you remember what I told you about September?

I told you from mid August to mid September would be a very critical time for getting these reforms accomplished. I told you Abadi would make a final push to get them completed and it would be very sudden and unexpected by most.

I told you that “if” this reform process is successful,  we would be in a great window to possibly see the currency reform project pick up momentum and maybe see a significant increase the value of the Iraqi dinar and the continuation of the “deletion of the 3 zeros” project.

In mid June Abadi attended a second Paris Conference where they discussed the progress of Iraq under the Abadi administration and what was needed yet to be accomplished. Abadi was given until mid September to complete these items (or reforms). What are these reforms?
When we arrived at mid August we were still seeing some stalling and procrastination on many of these laws necessary for the major reforms to take hold. We also did not see an end to the economic crisis for Iraq since oil prices fell sharply since June. ISIS was still a threat and still occupied many towns. Iraq also still maintained a high level of Iranian influence and we all should know by now that if this was not put in-check we could clearly see a second Iran in Iraq. The USA and UN certainly will not allow this to happen.

So what was the solution?

Article Follows:

MASOUDI: ABADI REFORMS NEED TIME TO SHOW RESULTS ON THE NATIONAL ECONOMY
     

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Baghdad: Euphrates News} MP for, Bloc citizen, Mohammed al-Masoudi that "the political and economic reforms launched by the federal government and approved by parliament need some time to show results on the Iraqi economy."

According to Masoudi in a statement the agency {Euphrates News} received a copy of it on Saturday that "the integration of ministries and cancellation of a number of positions and reducing the protections and the retrenchment process will have significant effects on the provision of liquidity to the Iraqi government, especially during the end of this year and the beginning of 2016, which is hoped to be His plan is more realistic and useful than previous years.

"He added that" the citizen run out of patience because of fiscal and monetary policies practiced by governments during the previous years, which led to a weakness and loss of Alaguetsadalaraca.
"It is said that, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi issued a series of reforms that specializes side economic in the country, including the abolition of posts of prime minister and the father of the Republic, and the integration of a range of ministries, in addition to reducing the protections Almsaolin.a


Article Ends

Today’s News

       
Today is Sunday August 30, and still no news of an RV. I will say that we are heading for a great window of opportunity for an RV come mid September and onward. Did I say it was going to RV in mid September- NO! So please do not put words in my mouth as some have done in the past. There is still much work to do in Iraq but the momentum is amazing and many things are happening very quickly.

So what makes this such a great window of opportunity? Abadi’s government had until mid September to implement the needed laws to support the necessary reforms, as these reforms are part of his promises made during the negotiations to allow him to take control of the government and to be seated as the new prime minister.

Also, resulting from a second Paris Conference in mid June, they also gave him 90 more days to complete the reforms (on corruption) and get in place other laws to support the economy (i.e Investment law and Banking laws, anti-Laundering laws, etc).

I believe that if he can be successful we may also see the currency reform finally implemented. 

So here is an article to begin today’s news. It is an article explaining the urgency of these reforms and how they must be implemented.

I also want to remind all those who have been spreading the usual misinformation and rumors every week about the accomplishment of these reforms. They said  they were all completed and we should have seen an RV any day , any time.  Really?  After reading today’s news letter you tell me if Iraq is ready for an RV……lol….

Again why in hell would they be talking about all these reforms with countless articles if they were all done?
So before many of you intel “gurus” shoot you mouth off on these conference calls maybe you should start reading more articles and first VERIFY the information you are putting out from your secret “boots – on- the ground” intel sources.

Article Begins:

August 29, 2015 - 15:56

TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Iraqi top Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Seyed Ali al-Sistani said Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s government should show that it is seeking genuine change to combat corruption and not just introduce “temporary measures” to appease the nation.

In a message delivered by a representative in a Friday sermon, Grand Ayatollah Sistani also cautioned protesters, who have staged weekly rallies to press demands for reform, that they must guard against groups seeking to hijack their movement to further other interests.
Hours later, tens of thousands of Iraqis rallied in Baghdad and a string of cities south of the capital in support of Prime Minister Abadi’s reform drive and to press demands for the dissolution of parliament and an end to corruption.

The Baghdad rally, in central Tahrir Square, was the largest by far, attracting at least 20,000, many of them waving the national flag. It was held under tight security measures but ended peacefully shortly after nightfall.
Ayatollah Sistani’s comments, delivered in Karbala, challenged the government to show that it is “truthfully and seriously” responding to demands for change.
“Citizens have experienced past promises that were never realized on the ground,” he cautioned.
“Officials must work differently this time around and win the trust of the citizens,” he said, according to an AP report.

The weekly rallies, which began last month, have been pressing for better basic services like power, water and medical care, as well as an end to corruption.

The rallies came as Iraqi Parliament Speaker Salim Al-Jabouri threatened Minister of Electricity Qassem Al-Fahdawi Tuesday with a vote of no confidence if he does not appear within four days to be quizzed over a persistent power crisis.

Prime Minister Abadi has responded to the rallies with a package of reforms that reduced the size of his cabinet, and eliminated the three vice presidencies and the three deputy prime minister posts. He has also ordered a revision of the government’s pay scale and the annulment of financial perks enjoyed by senior officials, lawmakers and consultants.

His actions raised questions about the legality of his reforms and whether they violate the constitution.
“I will not back down,” Abadi vowed in televised comments this week. “There is no going back on reforms. Our political system needs popular pressure to reform itself,” said the prime minister who has said he would seek a popular mandate to amend the constitution, which he described as “incomplete.”


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Article Ends

So next I would to summarize the overall attitude of this ongoing reform movement by Abadi. He has told us he is going to bite off parts of the broken Iraq and group his reforms and administer them his way. So far he has told us of three (3) groupings of reforms in his movement. 

Reforms I

The council of ministers devised an extensive long term plan to revise Iraq. The plan is multi phased and includes many aspects. It included cleaning up the corruption, meeting the 2015 budget, getting rid of ISIS, and dealing with Iranian influence (meaning Maliki and his goons). 

We also new that in September 2014, when Maliki officially resigned and Abadi took office and established his GOI ministries, he told them they would have a performance review a year later. He made good on the promise recently and sacked many of his ministers for incompetence, especially those that stalled the transition over to the provinces under the Decentralization effort Abadi told us in many articles this phase of reforms would be ongoing for many years. This was the first phase of the reforms those that were more related to the economy and stream lining government in the process. (nothing to do with the RV as I told you a month ago).

So we are now seeing various programs in Iraq to assist in launching these reforms to assist in building up the economy and getting the MONEY FLOWING. We also heard about a future BOND drive for the national citizens (not international). These BONDS are yet another solution to raise needed capital to fill the deficit gap.
Why the need to fill this budget deficit gap? Why not just borrow the money like the USA does? The USA and IMF are forcing double standards on Iraq and maybe they too should look at other nations in the same light.

These economic reforms are just not about SAVING money but to also disperse money into the economy to activate the private sector. What does it mean to “activate the private sector”. Many of you readers of this news letter probably are not economists so I will explain what this means. The basis of any robust economy is getting the private sector to produce and sell goods and services to the citizens and international community. Its all about money flowing. The result is there must be a surplus of funds (net profit revenues) at the end of the process to reinvest and expand the economy, thus creating yet more prosperity.

It is a cycle and each time a nations wealth builds yet even greater,  given the opportunity. Iraq government is now giving the private sector that opportunity. Also some of these surplus funds must go towards needed charities that can fill the gaps in society since they do not have the means of production. This creates yet more jobs, cleaner cities and neighborhoods. Have you traveled much? Do you see how some cities are cleaner and more developed than others? It is not coincidence and does not just happen. These cities are like this because of careful, long term planning. You are seeing the results of infusing the private sectors and priming them to succeed. 

So knowing this, can you see how the government is infusing money to “kick start” the Iraqi economy. They are  priming the pump by getting the needed capital in the hands of the private sector to create these incentives to get the economy rolling as I described above. We need a stable Iraqi economy to see any dinar revaluation.

Again I am telling you the RV is a by-product of this reform process and not the means in itself. An RV is not the solution but a product of the process. An RV at this current stage of Iraq is not the solution to all of Iraq’s problems. In fact an RV now would only ruin the economy and the currency would surely crash making the economic situation only worse. Do I need to say it again? Did you hear me this time? They desperately need these reforms prior to any RV.
Article Begins:

The launch of the “small” loans to activate the private sector and the recovery in 2016 budget      

August 26, 2015
Since 08/26/2015 20:28 pm (Baghdad time)

Special – scales News
Confirmed a member of the economic and investment commission parliamentary Najiba Najib, Wednesday, The launch of the micro-loans came to activate the private sector further and revive the financial budget for 2016.

She said Najib’s / scales News /, that “the allocation of $ 5 trillion dinars by the government and launched in the form of loans” small “for citizens came mainly the basis for activating the private sector, especially agriculture and industry sectors that promise clingy,” indicating that “activating the private sector automatically will recovery of the financial budget for 2016 “.

She said the economic and investment commission parliamentary member, said that “the launch of loans also will provide many job opportunities for the unemployed through the opening of small businesses.”
This “confirmed a member of the economic and investment commission parliamentary Najiba Najib’s / scales News /, earlier, the central bank equipped with soft loans for agricultural, industrial, and commercial banks, which in turn will launch those loans interest rate of 3% up.”

It is said that “the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, announced on Tuesday, to take immediate action to cope with the financial crisis in Iraq, including the allocation of five trillion dinars for the revitalization of agriculture, industry and housing sectors, and encourage investment and job creation” .anthy 29/9 P


Article Ends

Link to PART 2


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