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Monday, August 31, 2015

BGG Roundtable News & Chat 8-31-15

DinarUpdates.com Round Table Chat (mid-day) 8-31-15
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Loop: Demonstrators in front of the Supreme Judicial demanding the resignation of Mahmoud

08/31/2015 12:31 Dozens of people demonstrated on Monday in front of the Supreme Judicial Council building in Baghdad to demand the resignation of President of the Council Medhat al-Mahmoud and make real reforms in the judiciary. BAGHDAD / Obelisk: Dozens of people demonstrated on Monday in front of the Supreme Judicial Council building in Baghdad to demand the resignation of President of the Council Medhat al-Mahmoud and make real reforms in the judiciary.
~~~
 A source said in a statement "the Obelisk," Dozens of people demonstrated today in front of the Supreme Judicial Council building in the capital Baghdad. A source said in a statement "the Obelisk," Dozens of people demonstrated today in front of the Supreme Judicial Council building in the capital Baghdad.

The source added that the demonstrators demanded the resignation of Chief Justice Medhat al-Mahmoud and make real reforms in the judiciary.

The Federal Judicial Authority announced on Monday (17 August 2015), the refusal of the members of the Supreme Judicial Council unanimously asked President Judge Medhat al-Mahmoud transmits it to retire.

He called on Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, Friday (14 August 2015), the judiciary to carry out a series of "drastic measures" to confirm the prestige of the judiciary and its independence, pointing out that the broad reforms called for by requiring fair and firm spend. The religious reference was considered, Friday (14 August 2015), he did not repair without reform the judiciary.

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BGG: That is for sure a "biggie"

Loop: Lot's a articles in this today. The People want Mahmoud gone.

BGG: For anyone not understanding - once Medhat al-Mahmoud is gone - Maliki has ZERO fall back position. It's really, really bad news for the Shia/thug/hardliners...

BGG: these protests asking for Medhat's removal are a big deal - I guess maybe the biggest deal of the day.

BGG: I have a neat article in a minute - but this is NEWS (for sure).

mydinar100: Why is just a dozen protesters a big deal. Why not more?

BGG mydinar100: "Dozens"...
BGG mydinar100: 36 is plenty..
BGG mydinar100: and - I am not sure this isn't "cover" for Abadi to remove Medat all on his own.
BGG mydinar100: He has a lot of "organic" support - it wouldn't be hard to "gin some up" as well...

BGG mydinar100: and quite honestly - as long as it goes against Maliki - I care very little if it is "authentic" or "manufactured"...

BGG mydinar100: like they used to say - it's so close to the real thing - it might as well be a good shot.

BGG Loop: Thanks so much for that - and all your contributions to the News Forum.

Loop: Welcome. It is my pleasure to help where I can.

BGG: Here is a GREAT ARTICLE...
BGG: from Reuters

_firefly_: According to the 1st set of reforms that was passed, it gives Abadi the power to remove ANYBODY he chooses

BGG _firefly_: As I understand it - yes...

BGG _firefly_: Meet the man trying to bring Iraq back from the brink

BGG: On August 16, an Iraqi parliamentary report named Iraq’s former prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, among dozens of officials responsible for the collapse of security forces and the fall of Mosul to Islamic State militants last summer.

 In his eight years as premier, corruption thrived and Maliki repeatedly purged the Iraqi security forces of those he suspected of disloyalty.

 Iraqis now hope that Maliki and other officials will stand trial and be held to account for why militants were able to capture the northern city with so little resistance. (Maliki dismissed the parliamentary investigation as “worthless,” and he blamed Mosul’s fall on a conspiracy by Turkish and Kurdish leaders.)

BGG: This is MAINSTREAM - Iraqis now hope that Maliki and other officials will stand trial and be held to account for why militants were able to capture the northern city with so little resistance. (Maliki dismissed the parliamentary investigation as “worthless,” and he blamed Mosul’s fall on a conspiracy by Turkish and Kurdish leaders.)

BGG: they (many Iraqi's) are hopeful (we should be too...) he will stand trial...

BGG: Maliki blaming ISIS and the fall of Mosul on Erbil and Turkey is a "crack head, racially incendiary commentary" almost everyone doesn't like it - even the Shias it worked on for a while...

BGG: At the same time, Maliki is poised to lose his ceremonial post as one of Iraq’s three vice presidents under a series of reforms that the current prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, is trying to enact.

After weeks of popular protests in Baghdad and other cities against corruption and the government’s failure to provide basic services, Abadi sought to reform Iraq’s political system by eliminating several high-level positions, reigning in government spending and removing sectarian quotas in political appointments.

Most prominently, Abadi s****ped the posts of the three vice presidents and three deputy prime ministers. The positions were largely symbolic but included large budgets that allowed these officials to reward their supporters with patronage jobs.

While several other politicians lost their positions, Abadi’s measures were intended to detach his rival Maliki from the power structure in Iraq.

BGG: Or probably already has "lost his position"...
BGG: obvious what Abadi's point to the whole thing is...

BGG: further - there is NO WAY the WB/IMF will let this get overturned - Abadi will get worldwide support for this...

BGG: it shows the very character of the struggle going on in Iraq RIGHT NOW.

BGG: But Maliki is a survivor, and it’s a mistake to count him out of Iraq’s intricate politics because he is losing his post as vice president and he faces a potential trial. Maliki still has a base of support among some Shi’ite factions and militias that view Abadi as weak and too eager to offer concessions to Iraq’s Sunni minority.

Since he was forced out of office last year, Maliki has become a champion of the mainly Shi’ite volunteers and militias that are leading the fight against Islamic State under the banner of “popular mobilization units.”

Many of these volunteers answered a call to arms by Iraq’s top Shi’ite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, urging all able-bodied Iraqi men to join the security forces and stop Islamic State’s advance after Mosul’s fall. Tens of thousands of Shi’ite volunteers showed up at recruiting centers to sign up for the Iraq security forces, or the militias.

BGG: Here's where I deviate from the author (though I like the backdrop for this piece)...
BGG: I don't think Maliki will survive this onslaught...
BGG: AND
BGG: I think if anyone can "dethrone" Maliki from in front of the PMU - IT'S SISTANI!!

BGG: Who has proven recently he's not on Iran's side - OR MALIKI'S... he wants things better for the people. He's the driving force behind the support Abadi has and is the catalyst for these reforms!!

BGG: Abadi has tried to overhaul the Iraqi military and security forces, which are under his control. Last year, he announced that an initial investigation had uncovered 55,000 “ghost soldiers” in the army — nonexistent troops who were on the government’s payroll and whose salaries were collected by corrupt officers.

Abadi is now expanding his anti-corruption drive to eliminating patronage jobs and other perks provided to many government officials, including large security details.

 But Abadi risks a backlash from other power centers in Iraq, including some of the Shi’ite parties connected to militias and within the ranks of his own Dawa Party, a Shi’ite Islamist group where Maliki still has strong support.

BGG: Again - another point I take some issue with is...

BGG: Abadi is getting more support from the "interior" of the Dawa Party than this writer gives credit for - there is a genuine split there and this is good. Further –

I suspect as things get "dicier" there will be more Dawa defectors to the Abadi side... (than there already have been)...

BGG: Even as Maliki tries to undermine him, Abadi needs to assure Iraq’s Sunnis that he will be able to reverse the legacy of his divisive and sectarian predecessor.

Since Abadi took office last September, Sunni political leaders have made several demands: amnesty for tens of thousands of Sunnis imprisoned — in many cases without judicial review — by Maliki’s regime in the name of fighting terrorism; greater power in the new government;

an end to aerial bombardment of Sunni towns; and a more significant role in the Iraqi security forces, which Maliki cleansed of many senior Sunni officers.

Abadi has responded to some of these demands, releasing prisoners and ordering an end to the Iraqi air force bombings of Sunni areas. But for the most part, the Shi’ite militias are outside his control.

 Many Sunnis cringe at the memories evoked by the reestablishment of Shi’ite militias. These groups carried out widespread kidnappings, torture and killing of Sunnis during the sectarian war that raged in

BGG: Iraq from 2005 through 2008.

BGG: Here is where the National Guard Law comes into play - both allowing for more integration of "National forces" and bringing these militias under the control and authority of Baghdad. Not reporting directly to Maliki or some other "pseudo War Lord"...

BGG: Many of the Shi’ite militias depend on Iran for weapons, funding and training. Since Islamic State militants swept through northern Iraq last year, Tehran has mobilized to protect the Shi’ite-led Iraqi government from the jihadist threat.

General Qassim Suleimani, commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, traveled to Baghdad at the start of the crisis to coordinate the defense of the capital with Iraqi politicians and military officials.

Suleimani also directed Iranian-trained Shi’ite militias — including the Badr Brigade and the League of the Righteous, two notorious militias responsible for atrocities against Sunnis — in the fight against Islamic State.

When the United States invaded in 2003, Shi’ites made up nearly two-thirds of Iraq’s population of 25 million. But members of the Sunni minority had ruled Iraq since its independence in 1932. The Shi’ites had waited seven decades for their chance to rule, and it’s not surprising that they would...

BGG: ....consolidate power after the American invasion. But Maliki and other leaders manipulated a dysfunctional political system, put in place by the United States and the United Nations after 2003, to concentrate power and exclude Sunnis.

BGG: and when that didn't work Maliki just started shelling Sunni neighborhoods in Anbar... he caused a whole "electorate migration" which nearly swung the elections in his favor...

BGG: however, even such brutal tactics didn't work. He still didn't win - but he was close...

BGG: As Maliki struggled to remain in power, he became more dependent on Iran, which is the dominant external power in Iraq. Maliki was a reliable ally who allowed Iranian flights over Iraqi territory to transport weapons and manpower to Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria. Maliki also paved the way for thousands of Iraqi Shi’ites to cross the border and fight alongside the Syrian regime.

Abadi inherited this sectarian and dysfunctional political system. He must unify a fractured Iraq, by assuring Sunnis that the central government will protect their interests, while keeping rivals like Maliki in check. Abadi must also ensure that his predecessor stands trial for his corruption and the failures that helped empower Sunni extremists — and led to the catastrophe that has unfolded in Iraq.

BGG: In summation - "Abadi must also ensure that his predecessor stands trial for his corruption and the failures that helped empower Sunni extremists — and led to the catastrophe that has unfolded in Iraq".

BGG: That is the way to end it...
BGG: How does this help us??

BGG: first - with Maliki, Mahmoud and Alak gone - the true obstruction is gone and the door for Monetary and Economic reform (both critical to Iraq's very survival) is wide open!!

_firefly_: Ewwwww ........... Abadi constitute special committees to open the Central Bank of files .. and the issue of the dismissal of the former province Shabibi! 08/31/2015 14:1

BGG: just that they are looking into the "Kangaroo Court" proceedings... maybe not that they are looking into him...

diane1: IF alak is gone who now will take over the CBI, but glad to see Alak is gone

BGG: almost ANYONE is better than him... numerous OP ED pieces out about his lack of qualifications...

BGG: if accurate, what purpose does he serve there??

dale: Where does the International Court play into this picture trying Maliki instead of being tried in the Iraqi courts?

BGG: Once his non-immunity is established, then I suspect they will be handling his "crimes against humanity" issues - for instance - the Halabja massacre, the Camp Liberty massacre and maybe even some liability for the Speicher camp massacre... there are numerous things they will have to deal with...

BGG: but I am unsure whether they will allow Iraq a shot at him over the corruption and malfeasance in government.

rcookie: Abbadi formed special committees to open files of the Central Bank. The issue of the dismissal of the former county of Sinan Al-Shabibi! Date: Monday, 31-08-15 02:19 pm Worth Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar Al-Abbadi, a heavy legacy of corruption and corrupt people piled up during the reign of his predecessor, Nouri al-Maliki, making way for reforms is filled with obstacles and mines.

And observers to Iraq shows concern about the seriousness of the files you accept Abadi to open, which is linked to very serious mafia seized workshops during the eight years ago during the reign of Al-Maliki, and its predecessors, called for Al-Abbadi to handle it with caution.

Ministers said that "Al-Abadi said during the last meeting of the Council of Ministers was proceeding with reform and confront the spoilers at all costs", stating that "very serious and files linked to Mafia leaders of militias."

He said the Minister, who did not publish his name, "Al-Ibadi form special committees to open files of the Central Bank, Sinan Al-Shabibi sacked former County, and marred by charges of him by mafia corruption that dominated in that period.

 He added that "the commissions also opened a file property of the State and sold and acquired by the forces of political and partisan force in previous Governments, and open the file of oil licenses and marred by charges of corruption and deal with international oil companies."

 He stressed that "these files are the most dangerous in the country, and the file is dangerous to the draft reform, Abbadi had personally confronted Al-Abbadi, unexpected reactions by those files wemaviathm"

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BGG: WOW - that's some good stuff there!!
BGG: That seems - while mentioning the CBI - that it is more about a "broad based" corruption probe. Nice that it points out "looking into the Shabibi accusations"... GREAT!!

rcookie: and the oil licenses

BGG: slightly different translation of an excerpt of the same article -

BGG: "explained the minister, who preferred not to be named, said:" Abadi form special committees to open the Central Bank of files, and the issue of the dismissal of the former province Shabibi, and the like of the charges brought against him by the mafias of corruption that seized power in that period.

BGG: Which is a "DOUBLE WOW"...
BGG: the reason being - it is the very CORE of why we are still here.

rcookie: and committee to reassure that the entire Shabibi charges ...investigation and outcome has the same review standards applied to it that all the other corruption cases do

BGG: fix that - this thing is over.

rcookie: I totally agree...and think Abadi wants to assure that the standard of review and outcome toward Shabibibi case is beyond reproach

BGG: Great point.

diane1: IN ORDER TO MOVE FORWARD WITH ECONOMIC REFORM AKA R/V DO THEY NEED TO VOTE IN A CBI, OR CAN THEY JUST APPOINT A CBI IN PLACE.

OR ARE THEY ABLE TO BRING BACK SHABBI WHICH I TRULY BELIEVE SHABBI DESERVES TO COME BACK BUT OF COURSE IT WOULD BE HIS CHOICE.

BUT I FOR ONE WOULD LOVE TO SEE HIM COME BACK TO CBI AND FINISH WHAT HE STARTED
BGG: I highly doubt Shabibi comes back. JMHO - It would appear (especially since Alak is also an appointee) based on the context of these reforms, Abadi could replace Alak very quickly, potentially with only an agreement from the CoM.

Pablo: How long after M is gone will it be before an RV will take place?

BGG: Iraq needs value BAD!!
BGG: it can be quick...
BGG: Hey gang - Holly1 has an article - I just got a call, I have to run out immediately...

Baxter1243: Is the main problem with getting the Natl Guard law passed that the Kurds don't want baghdad controlling the Peshmarga

BGG: No - it's the Shias... (hardliners)

Holly1: Economist calls for the development of an emergency plan to stabilize the Iraqi dinar 

08/31/2015 Information / special / .. Called economic expert, Mohammed Abdul-Zahra, on Monday, the central government for an urgent financial plan to control the stability of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar. 

He said Venus told / information / that "the survival of the financial situation for what it is, especially since the country live a severe financial crisis represented delay staff salaries and delays in the implementation of projects and the lack of financial liquidity," 

noting that "those things have contributed and contribute to the instability of the Iraqi dinar against the the dollar. "Abdul-Zahra and stressed the need for "urgent government put a financial plan in order to avoid falling into a major crisis in the Iraqi economic." Finished /

Holly1: EMERGENCY 

Mrs BGG: Okay, thank you everyone for tuning in to Roundtable today!!

Mrs BGG: Thank you Holly1, Loop, and rcookie for bringing in News Articles and for your News research!! We appreciate you'all!!

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