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Thursday, June 11, 2015

Currency Chatter Member Discussion

Economic Adviser To The Prime Minister Calling For Currency Policy (Member Disussion)

G-Lin:    Baghdad: INA/Economic Adviser called for Prime Minister Mohammad Saleh appearance to amend the exchange rate by the Central Bank.

 Saleh said in a statement to the Iraqi news agency, the Central Bank sells foreign currency (dollar) low price – 1166 dinars per dollar-generating weak liquidity, exchange rate policy commensurate with the market rate "to get rid of the contradiction between the bank rate and the domestic market."

 Saleh said that "foreign currency sale prices prematurely is incorrect and signal that the Bank is dealing with reality and market fluctuations."
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mike:      So, what do you think this means, G-lin?  I've read several articles in the past where they've talked about lowering the rate to 1200 or 1300 to $1, do you think that's the direction they'll go or is a sign of an increase?

G-Lin    Hey mike. I emailed this to a good friend and fellow dinarian and I asked her if this mean't what I thought it mean't and she said yes. LOL... I have no idea, but I agree with the 1166 talk. Very interesting.

G-Lin   And mike the part that has me intrigued is:

"to get rid of the contradiction between the bank rate and the domestic market."

What is domestic rate?

Mally    Its worse, like 1300.  This is where Saleh is annoying to listen to.  On one hand he just said that a new category will be out shortly with more purchasing power to reduce desire for dollars and now he he says they should lower the dinar exchange rate. 

So his idea is to release higher denoms with even less purchasing power per dinar?  It sounds like Saleh is recommending everything Zimbabwe did.  Hey why not make it an even 2k dinar per dollar and come out with a million dinar bill, that'll fix things? 

Schizz    I think until what this article is on about there will be no currency reform. It's so important for them to get a grip on this. It's a no brainer really. Good art G :)

.Zebari calls for the US Treasury Department to provide assistance to Iraq to prevent money laundering and exit of foreign currency operations

06/10/2015 10:23

BAGHDAD / Nina / Student Finance Minister Hoshyar Zebari, the US Treasury Department to provide assistance to Iraq in the field of tracking money laundering and exit of hard currency out of the country to foreign banks' operations.

He said Zebari during a meeting with Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for combating the financing of terrorism and money Daniel Glazer laundering and Assistant Foreign Minister US for Iraq and Iran Brett Makourk, the importance of tightening international action to deprive the organization Daash terrorist benefit from the money coming out of Iraq.

The two sides discussed during the meeting, according to a statement the Ministry of Finance, the importance of exchanging information on the mechanisms for organizing Daash terrorist, the sources of internal and external funding. " / finished

Mike     The "bank" rate is 1166 and the "domestic" rate is what the street rate is, or 1330-$1 as of June 8th that's posted on the CBI's website.  The CBI makes around 21 dinars per dollar transacted so if you're buying dollar's from the CBI the rate at what you'd purchase it is 1187-$1. 

Even at 1187, the dinar is worth 13.5% less than what the CBI says, it's all related to lack of dollar liquidity to support imports due to the drop in oil prices.

Mike     Mally, you're right, I'm concerned that's the direction Iraq is going.  If they devalue the dinar to match the street rate, it will completely undermine the confidence of the dinar from the citizens point of view.  Instead of attacking the problem, Iraq would essentially cave in and admit that the dinar isn't able to maintain value or stability.  Combine that with the larger denom's and you'll have your Zimbabwe problem you mentioned above.  I'm really hoping that this isn't the route they intend to go on.
G-Lin    Thanks mally and Schizz. And mally yikes.  :lol: I of course saw something totally different. Ha. And Schizz when I saw the U.S. clamping down on Daash I thought well that is interesting timing. 

They are going after bad guys money and accounts in the U.S. also. Being a left handed gemini I tend to see the opposite from everyone else. I actually got a little bit excited.  :D 

G-Lin    Thanks mike. We were typing at the same time. And BTW bummer.  :lol:

rissas dad    I dont agree with this being compared to Zimbabwe.  They arent talking about adding three zeros to the currency.  Having said that I do agree that this is absolutely the wrong direction and would signal they have decided to go down the wrong path instead of just doing what they need to do.  Saleh talks out of both sides of his mouth often, who the hell knows what he really means?

Mally   Ya I was just being facetious comparing it to zimbabwe.  If they did this though it would be a good start on there way. Adding higher denoms and lowering the exchange rate would trigger higher inflation and so on.  Theres no way they are this dumb.  

They know they need to move to an open market economy and restructure their dinar to have more worth.  I hope they take this series of dinar, our dinar, along for the ride when they do raise the rate.  I seriously doubt they are going to do what Saleh is spewing. 

Schizz   Could all be smoke to get people to dump dinar and stop smuggling it to iran or wherever?

Yeah saleh is a tit and should be ignored really, it's just abit scarier now cos he has got abadi's ear and abadi doesn't look like he's got any balls......where as in the past when saleh spouted crap we could just know it was bs cos we had shabby at the helm.

Iraq really is a country full of clowns isn't it. I tell you what though, if they got shabby back that would go a long way in getting confidence back in the dinar i can tell ya.

rissas dad    Unless theyve accepted the situation as it appears to be.  Abadi is a softer version of Maliki but still takes orders from Shia-ville (Iran), the Sunni's and Kurds even with some money flowing between them will continue to be on the outside looking in, 

they have a liquidity crisis, oil will remain near what it is now, and daash will take much longer to get rid of (see Sunnis and Kurds), along with our administration not doing what needs to be done and relying on Abadi/Iraq to lead the way instead which leads back to Shia-ville.  

It is possible that this is the situation and Saleh is indicating the direction they intend to go for the short-middle term of time.  Hope not.  What happened to all the impending talk of 50k's?  Like it has dissappeared?

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