Recent Headlines & BGG’s Notes:
Keywords: foreign currency reserves is twice the size of the dinar in the market and inflation to less than 2%
Almadapaper.net
BGG Notes: This was from the press conference by Alak (or Alaq) right before his "questioning" before the two committees over the weekend. WHY WOULD ANYONE DO THAT?? He did - he was just trying to deflect some blame away from himself...
National calls to bring the Central Bank of quotas
Keywords: foreign currency reserves is twice the size of the dinar in the market and inflation to less than 2%
Almadapaper.net
BGG Notes: This was from the press conference by Alak (or Alaq) right before his "questioning" before the two committees over the weekend. WHY WOULD ANYONE DO THAT?? He did - he was just trying to deflect some blame away from himself...
National calls to bring the Central Bank of quotas
http://ift.tt/1SGsFEA
BGG Notes: 1) This is the "struggle for the soul of Iraq" and it DIRECTLY impacts MR... on one side you have Chalibi, Abadi (who wants to save his job/legacy), Allawi and even Dr Shabibi.... generally the Sunni contingent.
2) On the other side of the argument we see Alak and Maliki - maybe at the unction of Iran... generally the Shia hardliner contingent. All views I have been bringing to the general public...
3) The "National Coalition" referred to here is NOT the National Alliance. The NA is the broader Shia alliance...
4) the NC is a smaller Sunni political bloc headed by former Sunni heavy weight Ayad Allawi...Allawi in charge of a smaller Sunni contingent...
5) they are PLAINLY talking about Alak and possibly his upper mgmt in the CBI...
6) ...the output of the Central Bank of quotas basket...they are calling for the "output" of THOSE IN THE Central Bank placed as a result of quotas (along party lines)...
“...and the replacement of those responsible for the collapse of the exchange rate who were appointed for partisan reasons unknown...”
7) THIS IS ALAK from the CBI...
8 ) according to Allawi - Alak lacks the experience...and is "calling for" the end of the Proxy appointment and give to someone who deserves it...?? Keep in mind - Allawi is a politicican... not an economist. If he is on this "band wagon" and it looks like a "band wagon" it is likely a known and accepted narrative in Iraqi politics...
9) Chalibi heads the Committee - and he is hotter than a little red wagon... recent pics showed Alak leaned in and trying to convince Chalibi of something. I doubt anyone on his committee are buying in...
Zebari: We will be meeting with investors to issue bonds worth $ 5 billion
Mawazin.net
BGG Notes: I already pointed out the Bond offering was roughly "slated" for this same time frame (if all goes well) BEST CASE. Even then - 5 Billion USD won't even come close to bridging the gap. This HUGE OFFERING will be lucky if it covers 15-20% of their shortfall for JUST THIS YEAR (assuming everything goes well). They need real buying power - SOON.
The fall of Mosul sufficient evidence to claim Maliki to the International Criminal
http://ift.tt/1K9L9vS
BGG Notes: It is curious they (Kurds and others) are lobbying to send the Maliki case to the Hague. Further interesting - the Hague is typically reserved for just this instance, when a country can't or won't prosecute just such a character.
On the other hand, as I recall (off the top of my head) they prefer to handle more "human rights" type violators. I wonder if this massive corruption aspect alone will be enough to get them involved.
Federal Court decision to cancel a procedural Presidency of the Council of Representatives
http://ift.tt/1SGsIjI
BGG Notes: I highly suspect this disagreement was over the "coming wrath" to be faced by many (or at least the distrust of one another)... over support of ISIS and the politics of terrorism (or corruption). Jubouri wanted to limit the "contestation" of MP's to a shorter period of time via House "rules", whereas the Fed Court is (seemingly) adhering more to a "constitutional standard" without a specific time frame to limit challenging the immunity of MP's. Ironically - this may eventually backfire on Maliki. His own court being forced to rule against him by virtue of their own past rulings.
Chihod calls to mortgage Zebari Kurdistan oil to provide financial liquidity to Iraq
Information / Baghdad / .. Called the National Alliance MP Mohammed Saadoun Chihod, Tuesday, Finance Minister Hoshyar Zebari to mortgage Kurdistan oil to provide financial liquidity to Iraq...
http://ift.tt/1K9L9vU
BGG Notes:
1) Chihod is Shia - from the National Alliance - the "greater" Shia coalition. He's egging Zebari on - challenging him to "pledge" or mortgage Kurd oil for Iraq's short term budgetary benefit, not that it would even be possible. There's more to it than just the money - these jack wagons know if they keep yanking the Kurds around they will leave. One way to keep them (the Kurds) in submission is to have all their future oil production spoken for - or "mortgaged"...
IMHO - it's a lame attempt to retain a stranglehold on power. The Shias can see the end of their "reign". They are going to be FORCED into National Reconcilliation. This is an absurd "late stage" - last ditch "power grab"...
Legal representative: Federal Court Rules, parties and advisors are ready to vote
http://ift.tt/1SGsIjK
BGG Notes: It appears there are several key pieces of legislation getting much closer to being a reality... However, just because one side - or the other says "it is ready" does not mean it is... it means "they are ready" - everything they argue over (politically) they do in the media...
Whomever it is "expressing surprise" that Jubouri hasn't included the Guard Law on the agenda "as is" is likely just attempting to put pressure on him to move ahead before a real agreement is made.
Having said as much - I do get the impression things are moving ahead. At least the "struggle for the soul of Iraq" is still a struggle and not a capitulation to lawlessness...
BGG Notes: 1) This is the "struggle for the soul of Iraq" and it DIRECTLY impacts MR... on one side you have Chalibi, Abadi (who wants to save his job/legacy), Allawi and even Dr Shabibi.... generally the Sunni contingent.
2) On the other side of the argument we see Alak and Maliki - maybe at the unction of Iran... generally the Shia hardliner contingent. All views I have been bringing to the general public...
3) The "National Coalition" referred to here is NOT the National Alliance. The NA is the broader Shia alliance...
4) the NC is a smaller Sunni political bloc headed by former Sunni heavy weight Ayad Allawi...Allawi in charge of a smaller Sunni contingent...
5) they are PLAINLY talking about Alak and possibly his upper mgmt in the CBI...
6) ...the output of the Central Bank of quotas basket...they are calling for the "output" of THOSE IN THE Central Bank placed as a result of quotas (along party lines)...
“...and the replacement of those responsible for the collapse of the exchange rate who were appointed for partisan reasons unknown...”
7) THIS IS ALAK from the CBI...
8 ) according to Allawi - Alak lacks the experience...and is "calling for" the end of the Proxy appointment and give to someone who deserves it...?? Keep in mind - Allawi is a politicican... not an economist. If he is on this "band wagon" and it looks like a "band wagon" it is likely a known and accepted narrative in Iraqi politics...
9) Chalibi heads the Committee - and he is hotter than a little red wagon... recent pics showed Alak leaned in and trying to convince Chalibi of something. I doubt anyone on his committee are buying in...
Zebari: We will be meeting with investors to issue bonds worth $ 5 billion
Mawazin.net
BGG Notes: I already pointed out the Bond offering was roughly "slated" for this same time frame (if all goes well) BEST CASE. Even then - 5 Billion USD won't even come close to bridging the gap. This HUGE OFFERING will be lucky if it covers 15-20% of their shortfall for JUST THIS YEAR (assuming everything goes well). They need real buying power - SOON.
The fall of Mosul sufficient evidence to claim Maliki to the International Criminal
http://ift.tt/1K9L9vS
BGG Notes: It is curious they (Kurds and others) are lobbying to send the Maliki case to the Hague. Further interesting - the Hague is typically reserved for just this instance, when a country can't or won't prosecute just such a character.
On the other hand, as I recall (off the top of my head) they prefer to handle more "human rights" type violators. I wonder if this massive corruption aspect alone will be enough to get them involved.
Federal Court decision to cancel a procedural Presidency of the Council of Representatives
http://ift.tt/1SGsIjI
BGG Notes: I highly suspect this disagreement was over the "coming wrath" to be faced by many (or at least the distrust of one another)... over support of ISIS and the politics of terrorism (or corruption). Jubouri wanted to limit the "contestation" of MP's to a shorter period of time via House "rules", whereas the Fed Court is (seemingly) adhering more to a "constitutional standard" without a specific time frame to limit challenging the immunity of MP's. Ironically - this may eventually backfire on Maliki. His own court being forced to rule against him by virtue of their own past rulings.
Chihod calls to mortgage Zebari Kurdistan oil to provide financial liquidity to Iraq
Information / Baghdad / .. Called the National Alliance MP Mohammed Saadoun Chihod, Tuesday, Finance Minister Hoshyar Zebari to mortgage Kurdistan oil to provide financial liquidity to Iraq...
http://ift.tt/1K9L9vU
BGG Notes:
1) Chihod is Shia - from the National Alliance - the "greater" Shia coalition. He's egging Zebari on - challenging him to "pledge" or mortgage Kurd oil for Iraq's short term budgetary benefit, not that it would even be possible. There's more to it than just the money - these jack wagons know if they keep yanking the Kurds around they will leave. One way to keep them (the Kurds) in submission is to have all their future oil production spoken for - or "mortgaged"...
IMHO - it's a lame attempt to retain a stranglehold on power. The Shias can see the end of their "reign". They are going to be FORCED into National Reconcilliation. This is an absurd "late stage" - last ditch "power grab"...
Legal representative: Federal Court Rules, parties and advisors are ready to vote
http://ift.tt/1SGsIjK
BGG Notes: It appears there are several key pieces of legislation getting much closer to being a reality... However, just because one side - or the other says "it is ready" does not mean it is... it means "they are ready" - everything they argue over (politically) they do in the media...
Whomever it is "expressing surprise" that Jubouri hasn't included the Guard Law on the agenda "as is" is likely just attempting to put pressure on him to move ahead before a real agreement is made.
Having said as much - I do get the impression things are moving ahead. At least the "struggle for the soul of Iraq" is still a struggle and not a capitulation to lawlessness...
Parliamentary Energy warns the government of mortgage Basra oil reserves as sovereign wealth for future generations
http://ift.tt/1K9LbnA
BGG Notes: This is exactly the way we have envisioned them "paying" for any currency shift - with futures / oil assets. There will obviously be some friction within the GOI (as per usual). However, it is nice to hear confirmation of our thought...
Kouchner: France will support the independence of Kurdistan
http://ift.tt/1SGsFEC
BGG Notes: Uh oh - seems to be a message to the Shia hardliners in Baghdad. The world is sick of waiting - start inclusion or we will support the oppressed at the expense of Baghdad... more pressure on Abadi
Parliament Finance Committee: Iraqi reserves approaching $ 80 billion and not financed by the central budget
BGG Notes: By one mechanism or another the CBI reserves will get accessed... either increased value of the currency or by the CBI purchasing GOI treasuries (or bonds) - or a combination of both...
However, I doubt they will resort to an outright withdrawl...
http://ift.tt/1K9LbnA
BGG Notes: This is exactly the way we have envisioned them "paying" for any currency shift - with futures / oil assets. There will obviously be some friction within the GOI (as per usual). However, it is nice to hear confirmation of our thought...
Kouchner: France will support the independence of Kurdistan
http://ift.tt/1SGsFEC
BGG Notes: Uh oh - seems to be a message to the Shia hardliners in Baghdad. The world is sick of waiting - start inclusion or we will support the oppressed at the expense of Baghdad... more pressure on Abadi
Parliament Finance Committee: Iraqi reserves approaching $ 80 billion and not financed by the central budget
BGG Notes: By one mechanism or another the CBI reserves will get accessed... either increased value of the currency or by the CBI purchasing GOI treasuries (or bonds) - or a combination of both...
However, I doubt they will resort to an outright withdrawl...
via Dinar Recaps - Our Blog http://ift.tt/1K9L9vW
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