KTFA:
Frank26: Greeting WS and KTFA FAMILY ......... Only have one thing to say.
CC NOTES:
DRS is talking .......... (See article below)
The true Governor of The CBI about HIS MR ........ HE IS TAKING COMMAND and PROTECTING THIS POSITION WITH CONFIDENCE !!!
WS TY for starting early ......... Aloha Sir.
KTFA Frank
Aggiedad77: And the lava.....she flows
....
Frank26: Greeting WS and KTFA FAMILY ......... Only have one thing to say.
CC NOTES:
DRS is talking .......... (See article below)
The true Governor of The CBI about HIS MR ........ HE IS TAKING COMMAND and PROTECTING THIS POSITION WITH CONFIDENCE !!!
WS TY for starting early ......... Aloha Sir.
KTFA Frank
Aggiedad77: And the lava.....she flows
....
***********
walkongstick : Economist: issuing bank for a class of 50 thousand dinars facilitate the deal and do not cause inflation
Economy and tenders Since 06/24/2015 15:36 pm (Baghdad time)
BAGHDAD / scales News
He confirmed an economist, that the bank issuing 50 thousand dinars category will make it easier to deal in the local market, noting that the issuance of this new category does not cause inflation in the market or reduce handle small currencies.
The expert said contrary goldsmith's / scales News /, said that "the Central Bank of yore in the issuance of the 50th class thousand dinars for the purpose of facilitating interaction between citizens and reduce the money carried by his size, Instead of carrying a million dinars, which is equal to 40 sheets class 25 000 dinars, will carry 20 sheets category 50 000 dinars. "
Sayegh said that "the issuance of this new category does not cause inflation in the market or makes small coins disappear or reduce handled Cal 250 dinars and 500, but it is a measure to facilitate the cash dealings between citizens, and especially after the Bank delete the zeros to reduce the huge figures in the currency."
The Governor of the Central Bank announced on the Keywords, (June 20, 2015), for the issuance of 50 000 dinars a class of local currency the end of this year, and pointed to wait to issue the 100 class may be released at a different time to avoid any inflation. It ended 29 n / 10 LINK
************
Thunderhawk » June 24th, 2015,
Australia to invest $718 mn in China-led Bank
Even as Washington remains steadfast in its opposition to the new lender, Australia on Wednesday announced it will be investing 930 million AU dollars ($718 million) as paid-in capital to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, led by China.
In a joint statement, Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Julie Bishop and Treasurer Joe Hockey said the decision to join the AIIB comes after “extensive discussions between the government, China and other key partners around the world”.
The US has tried to sway its allies from joining the new lender on the grounds of “governance issues” although it is also wary the new financial instrument could be used to expand China’s economic clout.
US and Japan are yet to participate in the new financial institution.
The AIIB will have paid-in capital of $20 billion with a total authorized capital of $100 billion, which would be financed by individual country contributions proportionate to their economic size.
The bank will feature a three-level management structure that includes a board of governors, board of directors and senior management, China’s Deputy Finance Minister Shi Yaobin said earlier.
The Articles of Agreement for the new bank have been finalised and will be signed in Beijing on Monday June 29.
Earlier last month in Singapore, representatives from 57 prospective founding members of the AIIB and Jin Liqun, Secretary General of the Multilateral Interim Secretariat on establishing the AIIB attended the final negotiations that discussed shareholding in the bank.
Australia will be the sixth largest shareholder, said a government statement on Wednesday.
The statement noted that there is an estimated infrastructure financing gap of around $8 trillion in the Asian region over the current decade. “The AIIB will be part of the solution to closing this gap,” it said.
Earlier this month, New Zealand announced it will be investing NZ $125 million over five years in the bank.
The new lender is seen by the US as posing a challenge to the establishments controlled by Washington, such as the World Bank.
China is also a major player in the New Development Bank being set up by the BRICS nations and is also providing $40bn for the new Silk Road Fund to improve connectivity across Asia.
http://ift.tt/1BNbnBO
************
Walkongstick: Australia will be the sixth-largest shareholder in Bank of Asia to invest in infrastructure
Wednesday 24 June 2015
The Australian government announced on Wednesday that it will provide a contribution worth 930 million Australian dollars (718.9 million US dollars) over five years in the Asian Bank for investment in infrastructure led by China which would make it the sixth-largest shareholder in the financial institution.
It joined 57 countries including Britain, France and Iran to the bank, which has a capital of $ 100 billion and is seen as a rival to the World Bank, which is dominated by the West.
Bank was launched in Beijing last year to support investment in transport, energy, telecommunications and other sectors of infrastructure in Asia.
A statement from the Ministries of Foreign Affairs Treasury Alastralitin "Join ADB to invest in infrastructure it provides great opportunities for Australia to work with our neighbors and the largest trading partner for us to lead the economic growth and jobs."
"ADB investment in infrastructure will work closely with the private sector which would pave the way for Australian companies to take advantage of growth in infrastructure in the region."
The statement said Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey will attend the signing of the Constituent Convention in Beijing ceremony in the twenty-ninth of June LINK
************
Thunderhawk » June 24th, 2015, 12:01 pm
Austrian Campaigners Start Collecting Signatures in Support of EU Exit
According to a representative of the initiative’s non-partisan committee, Austrian civic initiative Heimat & Umwelt, or Homeland and Environment, have begun collecting signatures on Wednesday in support of the country's exit from the EU.
MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Austrian civic initiative Heimat & Umwelt, or Homeland and Environment, have begun collecting signatures on Wednesday in support of the country's exit from the European Union, a representative of the initiative’s non-partisan committee, Inge Rauscher, told Sputnik Radio.
“This initiative is open for all political parties and we expect a broad support. This is proved by our numerous conversations with the citizens over the past months,” Rauscher said.
Rauscher added that at the preliminary stage, before the initiative was officially launched, it collected some 10,000 signatures from Austrian citizens.
However, Rauscher said that the Austrian media have barely mentioned the petition because they are “loyal to the European Union,” making it harder to promote the initiative.
The authors of the petition regard an EU exit as the only way to make Austria independent of Brussels and return to neutrality.
If the initiative gathers 100,000 signatures in the period between June 24 until July 1, it will be considered in the lower house of the Austria’s parliament.
http://ift.tt/1Lux5xb
*********
Walkingstick: NRI alert: Exchange your old Indian rupee notes by next week
RBI extended its deadline to June 30 for notes issued prior to 2005
By Bindu Rai
Published Monday, June 22, 2015
Reserve Bank of India urged Indians to deposit old design notes in their bank accounts or exchange them. (AP)
Non-Resident Indians in the UAE should take note, as only nine days now remain to exchange your pre-2005 issued currency notes, as per the deadline set by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
The June 30 deadline, which was extended from January 1, will include denominations of Rs500 and Rs1,000 currency notes.
Residents in the UAE are still able to go to local currency exchange houses, with UAE Exchange's customer helpline stating it is still accepting pre-2005 issued Indian notes and continues to convert them to dirhams.
However, some exchange houses, have determined that several are still in the dark, while some like Wall Street have stated it will only accept Indian rupee notes issued after 2005.
In a press statement, the RBI urged the public to deposit the old design notes in their bank accounts or exchange them at a bank branch convenient to them.
RBI also stated the notes can be exchanged for their full value. It has clarified that all such notes continue to remain legal tender.
Explaining the move, the Reserve Bank said that now the notes in Mahatma Gandhi series have been in circulation for a decade.
A majority of the old notes have also been withdrawn through bank branches.
It has, therefore, decided to withdraw the remaining old design notes from circulation.
Not having currency notes in multiple series in circulation at the same time is a standard international practice, the RBI pointed out.
http://ift.tt/1BNbnBQ
walkongstick : Economist: issuing bank for a class of 50 thousand dinars facilitate the deal and do not cause inflation
Economy and tenders Since 06/24/2015 15:36 pm (Baghdad time)
BAGHDAD / scales News
He confirmed an economist, that the bank issuing 50 thousand dinars category will make it easier to deal in the local market, noting that the issuance of this new category does not cause inflation in the market or reduce handle small currencies.
The expert said contrary goldsmith's / scales News /, said that "the Central Bank of yore in the issuance of the 50th class thousand dinars for the purpose of facilitating interaction between citizens and reduce the money carried by his size, Instead of carrying a million dinars, which is equal to 40 sheets class 25 000 dinars, will carry 20 sheets category 50 000 dinars. "
Sayegh said that "the issuance of this new category does not cause inflation in the market or makes small coins disappear or reduce handled Cal 250 dinars and 500, but it is a measure to facilitate the cash dealings between citizens, and especially after the Bank delete the zeros to reduce the huge figures in the currency."
The Governor of the Central Bank announced on the Keywords, (June 20, 2015), for the issuance of 50 000 dinars a class of local currency the end of this year, and pointed to wait to issue the 100 class may be released at a different time to avoid any inflation. It ended 29 n / 10 LINK
************
Thunderhawk » June 24th, 2015,
Australia to invest $718 mn in China-led Bank
Even as Washington remains steadfast in its opposition to the new lender, Australia on Wednesday announced it will be investing 930 million AU dollars ($718 million) as paid-in capital to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, led by China.
In a joint statement, Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Julie Bishop and Treasurer Joe Hockey said the decision to join the AIIB comes after “extensive discussions between the government, China and other key partners around the world”.
The US has tried to sway its allies from joining the new lender on the grounds of “governance issues” although it is also wary the new financial instrument could be used to expand China’s economic clout.
US and Japan are yet to participate in the new financial institution.
The AIIB will have paid-in capital of $20 billion with a total authorized capital of $100 billion, which would be financed by individual country contributions proportionate to their economic size.
The bank will feature a three-level management structure that includes a board of governors, board of directors and senior management, China’s Deputy Finance Minister Shi Yaobin said earlier.
The Articles of Agreement for the new bank have been finalised and will be signed in Beijing on Monday June 29.
Earlier last month in Singapore, representatives from 57 prospective founding members of the AIIB and Jin Liqun, Secretary General of the Multilateral Interim Secretariat on establishing the AIIB attended the final negotiations that discussed shareholding in the bank.
Australia will be the sixth largest shareholder, said a government statement on Wednesday.
The statement noted that there is an estimated infrastructure financing gap of around $8 trillion in the Asian region over the current decade. “The AIIB will be part of the solution to closing this gap,” it said.
Earlier this month, New Zealand announced it will be investing NZ $125 million over five years in the bank.
The new lender is seen by the US as posing a challenge to the establishments controlled by Washington, such as the World Bank.
China is also a major player in the New Development Bank being set up by the BRICS nations and is also providing $40bn for the new Silk Road Fund to improve connectivity across Asia.
http://ift.tt/1BNbnBO
************
Walkongstick: Australia will be the sixth-largest shareholder in Bank of Asia to invest in infrastructure
Wednesday 24 June 2015
The Australian government announced on Wednesday that it will provide a contribution worth 930 million Australian dollars (718.9 million US dollars) over five years in the Asian Bank for investment in infrastructure led by China which would make it the sixth-largest shareholder in the financial institution.
It joined 57 countries including Britain, France and Iran to the bank, which has a capital of $ 100 billion and is seen as a rival to the World Bank, which is dominated by the West.
Bank was launched in Beijing last year to support investment in transport, energy, telecommunications and other sectors of infrastructure in Asia.
A statement from the Ministries of Foreign Affairs Treasury Alastralitin "Join ADB to invest in infrastructure it provides great opportunities for Australia to work with our neighbors and the largest trading partner for us to lead the economic growth and jobs."
"ADB investment in infrastructure will work closely with the private sector which would pave the way for Australian companies to take advantage of growth in infrastructure in the region."
The statement said Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey will attend the signing of the Constituent Convention in Beijing ceremony in the twenty-ninth of June LINK
************
Thunderhawk » June 24th, 2015, 12:01 pm
Austrian Campaigners Start Collecting Signatures in Support of EU Exit
According to a representative of the initiative’s non-partisan committee, Austrian civic initiative Heimat & Umwelt, or Homeland and Environment, have begun collecting signatures on Wednesday in support of the country's exit from the EU.
MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Austrian civic initiative Heimat & Umwelt, or Homeland and Environment, have begun collecting signatures on Wednesday in support of the country's exit from the European Union, a representative of the initiative’s non-partisan committee, Inge Rauscher, told Sputnik Radio.
“This initiative is open for all political parties and we expect a broad support. This is proved by our numerous conversations with the citizens over the past months,” Rauscher said.
Rauscher added that at the preliminary stage, before the initiative was officially launched, it collected some 10,000 signatures from Austrian citizens.
However, Rauscher said that the Austrian media have barely mentioned the petition because they are “loyal to the European Union,” making it harder to promote the initiative.
The authors of the petition regard an EU exit as the only way to make Austria independent of Brussels and return to neutrality.
If the initiative gathers 100,000 signatures in the period between June 24 until July 1, it will be considered in the lower house of the Austria’s parliament.
http://ift.tt/1Lux5xb
*********
Walkingstick: NRI alert: Exchange your old Indian rupee notes by next week
RBI extended its deadline to June 30 for notes issued prior to 2005
By Bindu Rai
Published Monday, June 22, 2015
Reserve Bank of India urged Indians to deposit old design notes in their bank accounts or exchange them. (AP)
Non-Resident Indians in the UAE should take note, as only nine days now remain to exchange your pre-2005 issued currency notes, as per the deadline set by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
The June 30 deadline, which was extended from January 1, will include denominations of Rs500 and Rs1,000 currency notes.
Residents in the UAE are still able to go to local currency exchange houses, with UAE Exchange's customer helpline stating it is still accepting pre-2005 issued Indian notes and continues to convert them to dirhams.
However, some exchange houses, have determined that several are still in the dark, while some like Wall Street have stated it will only accept Indian rupee notes issued after 2005.
In a press statement, the RBI urged the public to deposit the old design notes in their bank accounts or exchange them at a bank branch convenient to them.
RBI also stated the notes can be exchanged for their full value. It has clarified that all such notes continue to remain legal tender.
Explaining the move, the Reserve Bank said that now the notes in Mahatma Gandhi series have been in circulation for a decade.
A majority of the old notes have also been withdrawn through bank branches.
It has, therefore, decided to withdraw the remaining old design notes from circulation.
Not having currency notes in multiple series in circulation at the same time is a standard international practice, the RBI pointed out.
http://ift.tt/1BNbnBQ
Thunderhawk » June 24th, 2015, 2:11 pm Backdoc Alert
Why Greece must default or restructure its debt
Greece will never be able to pay all its owes and the sooner its principal creditors — the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund — face reality, the better for everyone.
The "Troika" of Greek creditors is demanding more austerity — cuts in government spending, higher taxes and labor-market reforms — to release another tranche of bailout funds. Without it, Greece can't pay the 1.54 billion euros due the IMF on June 30.
Withdrawals from Greek banks would accelerate further and Athens would have to impose limits on private withdrawals and on the euros investors could take out of the country.
In the panic, a broader default on Greek debt would likely follow.
A disorderly collapse of Greek finances would do few involved — or global markets — much good but it's foolish to believe more austerity and labor market reforms could fix Greece.
Thanks to austerity imposed since 2010, Athens has accomplished a primary national budget surplus. Spending, net of interest payments, is about 1 percent of GDP, and private-sector wages have fallen some 25 percent.
Contrary to the predictions of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and IMF Managing Director Christine Legarde, those have not rekindled growth. GDP is down 25 percent and national debt has soared from 130 to 180 percent of GDP.
Servicing that debt would require a primary surplus of almost 6 percent of GDP — assuming creditors would accept a paltry 3 percent on bonds — and send Greece into a death spiral.
The required additional spending cuts and tax increases, applying conservative macroeconomic assumptions, would shrink the economy by another 6 percent. That would impel even more spending cuts, tax increases and economic downsizing.
The Greek government owes €131 billion — with the Troika holding in one form or another about €100 billion. Only forgiving half — likely more —of that debt offers any hope of stabilizing Greece, but politics and simple ignorance stand in the way.
Germany would take a big haircut on any Greek restructuring, and German voters suffer the fantasy they are rugged and industrious, whereas the Greeks are indolent and deadbeats.
Although Germany has greatly reformed the letter of its employment laws to be in step with the requirements of global competition, during the recent financial crisis, Berlin paid private employers to keep huge numbers of workers on the job. It seems reforms apply only when more generous policies are not needed to keep everyone employed.
Pushing down wages hasn't worked for Greece, because it lacks a well-developed export sector in manufacturing. A good deal of its private foreign revenues flow from petroleum refining and shipping, and those are not as sensitive to movements in wages as stitching apparel and assembling iPhones in Asia. The constant fiscal crisis and uncertainly about Greek membership in the EU and tariff-free access to western European markets discourages new foreign investment to exploit lower wages.
For Germany and other creditors, the only sensible options are to accept big losses on the debt they hold now or let Greece leave the euro altogether. The latter would impose losses as the Greek debt remarked in drachma fell in value as the new currency depreciated to balance Greece's foreign payments and receipts.
The size of those losses would depend on the terms of the divorce. If Greece were permitted to remain a member of the EU without the euro, or at least continue to have tariff-free access to EU markets, it would attract more foreign investment and the drachma depreciation and creditor haircuts would be more limited than if Germany and the others insisted on banishing Greece from the EU altogether.
At some point the facts and reason must triumph, but that may require new leadership in Germany and the IMF-leaders willing to see the light of day.
http://ift.tt/1Lnlr6k
************
Thunderhawk » June 24th, 2015, 2:16 pm • Backdoc Alert
VIDEO: Forget Greece—it's time to worry about China
While Wall Street is keeping a wary eye on Greece, fewer folks are focusing on whether or not there is a bear in the China shop — but maybe they should be.
Shanghai shares fell about 13 percent last week, after an extraordinary run in the past 12 months. Similarly, shares on the smaller, but no less euphoric, Shenzhen Exchange have enjoyed a similarly spectacular run.
After having doubled in the last 12 months, Shanghai shares are still up 40 percent year-to-date, but the next few weeks could prove critical in determining whether last week's drop, the worst week in China since 2008, is a "healthy" correction or the start of something big … and worrisome.
The liberalization of the Chinese market; the prospect of Chinese shares being added to the MSCI world index (which would force money managers to add to their weightings of Chinese stocks to mirror their benchmark); hot money flooding into, and out of, Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Shenzhen, have all contributed to the wild moves in the market of the world's second largest economy.
Read More Asian equities cheer Greece's new reform deal
Citing China's many market restrictions, MSCI has delayed adding Chinese stocks to its index, which may have been behind some, or all, of last week's pullback. But the Chinese economy, recently the presumed envy of the world, has lost some of its luster, of late.
Of course, market bulls say that China has mastered the art of managing its economy and markets. Its command and control leadership can, at will, make the economy roar and stocks soar. It is true that the Chinese government, like any other government in the world, can pull various levers to boost asset prices, stimulate growth and encourage overseas investors to join the party.
This, of course, is the exact same argument that the bulls used when saying Japan's market was a superior version of western bourses, thanks to the strict discipline of Japan's central bank; the interlocking ownership of Japanese corporations (known as keirestu), through which the buying of related company shares drove Japanese stock prices ever higher; and the superiority of Japan's mercantile manufacturing economy.
Then, on the last day of 1989, at the very height of optimism over Japan's rising sun market, the sun set rather abruptly, with the Nikkei sinking by 70 percent over the next decade. It remains 50 percent below its all-time high of nearly 40,000.
China looks pretty much the same to me. Its manufacturing prowess has been overstated. Its ability to manipulate and stimulate its economy may have run its course. Its labor-cost advantages have narrowed markedly and its government has been less than friendly, in many ways, to firms wishing to expand their operations on the mainland.
Read More China stock rout fuels easing expectations
As was the case with Japanese stocks in 1989, U.S. Internet stocks in 2000, or credit instruments in 2007, valuations in China are stretched. There is a mania for stocks among individual Chinese investors that rivals Japan in the late '80s, or the U.S. in the late '90s.
Individual investors in China are said to be opening a million brokerage accounts a week, many choosing to buy stocks on margin, or borrowed money, very frequently the sign of a major market top. It's true they have precious few investment alternatives other than stocks, but some U.S. bears say that's a poor reason to buy a seemingly overvalued S&P, while recommending purchase of Shanghai shares.
It's easy to be wrong about China, given its vast foreign exchange reserves and general disdain for failures in a controlled market. However, China's debt-to-GDP ratio, a key metric that has turned many an investor bearish on U.S. stocks, is 282 percent, more than double that of the U.S. and even larger than Japan's hefty burden.
Read MoreChina market down, not out: UBS
We may worry about Washington, tremble about Tokyo, or even go apoplectic about Athens. I would argue that more importantly, this is hardly the time to be chill about China.
http://ift.tt/1GiuCPX
Why Greece must default or restructure its debt
Greece will never be able to pay all its owes and the sooner its principal creditors — the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund — face reality, the better for everyone.
The "Troika" of Greek creditors is demanding more austerity — cuts in government spending, higher taxes and labor-market reforms — to release another tranche of bailout funds. Without it, Greece can't pay the 1.54 billion euros due the IMF on June 30.
Withdrawals from Greek banks would accelerate further and Athens would have to impose limits on private withdrawals and on the euros investors could take out of the country.
In the panic, a broader default on Greek debt would likely follow.
A disorderly collapse of Greek finances would do few involved — or global markets — much good but it's foolish to believe more austerity and labor market reforms could fix Greece.
Thanks to austerity imposed since 2010, Athens has accomplished a primary national budget surplus. Spending, net of interest payments, is about 1 percent of GDP, and private-sector wages have fallen some 25 percent.
Contrary to the predictions of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and IMF Managing Director Christine Legarde, those have not rekindled growth. GDP is down 25 percent and national debt has soared from 130 to 180 percent of GDP.
Servicing that debt would require a primary surplus of almost 6 percent of GDP — assuming creditors would accept a paltry 3 percent on bonds — and send Greece into a death spiral.
The required additional spending cuts and tax increases, applying conservative macroeconomic assumptions, would shrink the economy by another 6 percent. That would impel even more spending cuts, tax increases and economic downsizing.
The Greek government owes €131 billion — with the Troika holding in one form or another about €100 billion. Only forgiving half — likely more —of that debt offers any hope of stabilizing Greece, but politics and simple ignorance stand in the way.
Germany would take a big haircut on any Greek restructuring, and German voters suffer the fantasy they are rugged and industrious, whereas the Greeks are indolent and deadbeats.
Although Germany has greatly reformed the letter of its employment laws to be in step with the requirements of global competition, during the recent financial crisis, Berlin paid private employers to keep huge numbers of workers on the job. It seems reforms apply only when more generous policies are not needed to keep everyone employed.
Pushing down wages hasn't worked for Greece, because it lacks a well-developed export sector in manufacturing. A good deal of its private foreign revenues flow from petroleum refining and shipping, and those are not as sensitive to movements in wages as stitching apparel and assembling iPhones in Asia. The constant fiscal crisis and uncertainly about Greek membership in the EU and tariff-free access to western European markets discourages new foreign investment to exploit lower wages.
For Germany and other creditors, the only sensible options are to accept big losses on the debt they hold now or let Greece leave the euro altogether. The latter would impose losses as the Greek debt remarked in drachma fell in value as the new currency depreciated to balance Greece's foreign payments and receipts.
The size of those losses would depend on the terms of the divorce. If Greece were permitted to remain a member of the EU without the euro, or at least continue to have tariff-free access to EU markets, it would attract more foreign investment and the drachma depreciation and creditor haircuts would be more limited than if Germany and the others insisted on banishing Greece from the EU altogether.
At some point the facts and reason must triumph, but that may require new leadership in Germany and the IMF-leaders willing to see the light of day.
http://ift.tt/1Lnlr6k
************
Thunderhawk » June 24th, 2015, 2:16 pm • Backdoc Alert
VIDEO: Forget Greece—it's time to worry about China
While Wall Street is keeping a wary eye on Greece, fewer folks are focusing on whether or not there is a bear in the China shop — but maybe they should be.
Shanghai shares fell about 13 percent last week, after an extraordinary run in the past 12 months. Similarly, shares on the smaller, but no less euphoric, Shenzhen Exchange have enjoyed a similarly spectacular run.
After having doubled in the last 12 months, Shanghai shares are still up 40 percent year-to-date, but the next few weeks could prove critical in determining whether last week's drop, the worst week in China since 2008, is a "healthy" correction or the start of something big … and worrisome.
The liberalization of the Chinese market; the prospect of Chinese shares being added to the MSCI world index (which would force money managers to add to their weightings of Chinese stocks to mirror their benchmark); hot money flooding into, and out of, Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Shenzhen, have all contributed to the wild moves in the market of the world's second largest economy.
Read More Asian equities cheer Greece's new reform deal
Citing China's many market restrictions, MSCI has delayed adding Chinese stocks to its index, which may have been behind some, or all, of last week's pullback. But the Chinese economy, recently the presumed envy of the world, has lost some of its luster, of late.
Of course, market bulls say that China has mastered the art of managing its economy and markets. Its command and control leadership can, at will, make the economy roar and stocks soar. It is true that the Chinese government, like any other government in the world, can pull various levers to boost asset prices, stimulate growth and encourage overseas investors to join the party.
This, of course, is the exact same argument that the bulls used when saying Japan's market was a superior version of western bourses, thanks to the strict discipline of Japan's central bank; the interlocking ownership of Japanese corporations (known as keirestu), through which the buying of related company shares drove Japanese stock prices ever higher; and the superiority of Japan's mercantile manufacturing economy.
Then, on the last day of 1989, at the very height of optimism over Japan's rising sun market, the sun set rather abruptly, with the Nikkei sinking by 70 percent over the next decade. It remains 50 percent below its all-time high of nearly 40,000.
China looks pretty much the same to me. Its manufacturing prowess has been overstated. Its ability to manipulate and stimulate its economy may have run its course. Its labor-cost advantages have narrowed markedly and its government has been less than friendly, in many ways, to firms wishing to expand their operations on the mainland.
Read More China stock rout fuels easing expectations
As was the case with Japanese stocks in 1989, U.S. Internet stocks in 2000, or credit instruments in 2007, valuations in China are stretched. There is a mania for stocks among individual Chinese investors that rivals Japan in the late '80s, or the U.S. in the late '90s.
Individual investors in China are said to be opening a million brokerage accounts a week, many choosing to buy stocks on margin, or borrowed money, very frequently the sign of a major market top. It's true they have precious few investment alternatives other than stocks, but some U.S. bears say that's a poor reason to buy a seemingly overvalued S&P, while recommending purchase of Shanghai shares.
It's easy to be wrong about China, given its vast foreign exchange reserves and general disdain for failures in a controlled market. However, China's debt-to-GDP ratio, a key metric that has turned many an investor bearish on U.S. stocks, is 282 percent, more than double that of the U.S. and even larger than Japan's hefty burden.
Read MoreChina market down, not out: UBS
We may worry about Washington, tremble about Tokyo, or even go apoplectic about Athens. I would argue that more importantly, this is hardly the time to be chill about China.
http://ift.tt/1GiuCPX
via Dinar Recaps - Our Blog http://ift.tt/1dh0kEP
No comments:
Post a Comment