Dinar Updates: Repost
Millionday LETS TAKE ONE MORE LOOK AT THE IMPORTANCE OF A CREDIT RATING AND ITS USE FOR A COUNTRY -- (MUCH DIFFERENT THAN PERSONAL AND BUSINESS)
THE CREDIT RATING IS A KEY ELEMENT IN THE DECISION MAKING FOR INVESTORS WHEN DECIDING TO INVEST IN A COUNTRY---
THE RISK (HIGH OR LOW) IS DESCRIBED BY THE RATING ITSELF AND ALSO THE CONFIDENCE IT BUILDS IN ITS PROCESS.
Article quote: "The central bank decided to open a window at his headquarters in Baghdad to meet delegates and scholars requests abroad in dollars and the official price."
MEETINGS ARE NOT ONLY GOING ON ABOUT IRAQ`S CREDIT RATING - BUT THEY ARE ALSO MEETING ON THE OFFICIAL CURRENCY PRICE -- WHHHOOOPOW.
....
Millionday LETS TAKE ONE MORE LOOK AT THE IMPORTANCE OF A CREDIT RATING AND ITS USE FOR A COUNTRY -- (MUCH DIFFERENT THAN PERSONAL AND BUSINESS)
THE CREDIT RATING IS A KEY ELEMENT IN THE DECISION MAKING FOR INVESTORS WHEN DECIDING TO INVEST IN A COUNTRY---
THE RISK (HIGH OR LOW) IS DESCRIBED BY THE RATING ITSELF AND ALSO THE CONFIDENCE IT BUILDS IN ITS PROCESS.
Article quote: "The central bank decided to open a window at his headquarters in Baghdad to meet delegates and scholars requests abroad in dollars and the official price."
MEETINGS ARE NOT ONLY GOING ON ABOUT IRAQ`S CREDIT RATING - BUT THEY ARE ALSO MEETING ON THE OFFICIAL CURRENCY PRICE -- WHHHOOOPOW.
....
*******************************:
TNT:
[LAS] Okay, I've got some intel. Here we go. My daughter is a surgical dental assistant and works for a temp agency. She was sent out to a dental office today and after leaving the office she called me to tell me she had intel.
I said "What?" She said she worked with a young man from Iraq and she overheard him talking to the doc about recently coming to the States from Iraq. He said that he and his family want to go back to Iraq but at this time cannot.
Some time later in the day my daughter ran into the young man and she asked him, "When is the dinar going to revalue?" He said it going to come out at 1:1 in-country and my daughter said "It's going to be higher in the US." He said "Yes" and then talked about Kuwait being at 3 something.
That's where the conversation ended. Hope this little bit encourages you.
*********************************
KTFA:
Thunderhawk » June 23rd, 2015, 10:26 pm Backdoc Alert
CME delays closing the futures pits, just a bit
Shout on the floor while you can, traders.
The CME Group said it would delay closing its outcry futures trading in Chicago and New York, if only by a few days.
Previously scheduled to close on July 2, the last day for most open outcry futures trading is expected to take place on July 6, pending expiration of CFTC review periods, CME announced Tuesday.
Still, the CME said it could further delay the closure for up to 90 days depending on the CFTC's review.
http://ift.tt/1IcB6Ez
**************
Thunderhawk » June 23rd, 2015, 10:29 pm Backdoc Alert
VIDEO: GDP: This time, a revision worth examining
GDP revisions are oft times shrugged off as a look through the rearview mirror, but this time the look back is worthwhile since it's bound to be brighter than the earlier view.
First-quarter GDP, reported at 8:30 a.m. ET Wednesday, is expectded to have contracted by 0.2 percent, but that's an improvement over the previous revision's contraction of 0.7 percent. There had been concerns a tough winter could have made it even worse, with a decline of 1 percent or greater.
"It simply means the beginning of the year wasn't as bad as we thought," said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies. "We probably don't have to worry quite as much about the rest of the year." So far, second-quarter GDP is tracking at about 3 percent, about a point better than earlier in the quarter when some of the data was affected by weather.
Markets are also watching developments around Greece's efforts to strike a deal with creditors. There's a Eurogroup meeting in Brussels on the matter at 1 p.m. ET Wednesday. Risk markets have rallied this week as traders bet there would be a deal that averts a Greek exit from the euro zone.
The Dow was up 24 on Tuesday, at 18,144, and the S&P 500 was 1 point higher at 2,124. The Nasdaq, however, gained 6 points to a record high of 5,160.
Treasury yields also rose Tuesday as markets looked past Greece, but also as a big Heinz debt issuance pressured Treasury prices. Strategists say the move in yields was a bearish change in momentum, after the flight-to-quality trade that drove rates lower last week. The 10-year was yielding 2.41 percent late in the day, and several strategists said its next target is about 2.50 percent.
"I don't think it's going to be a steady rise in rates, but I do think the worm has turned," McCarthy said. There is a $35 billion 5-year auction at 1 p.m. ET.
John Kosar, chief strategist at Asbury Research, said he's watching the action in the Nasdaq composite to see if it confirms a breakout. The Nasdaq returned to 5,133 for the first time in 15 years last week.
"Markets basically expand, then they compress," he said. "Right now they're really compressing, which tells you we're going to get an expansion. The $64,000 question is which way."
Kosar said he's concerned by Nasdaq. "For me, I want to see it start trading above the 5,133 level for a week or two and start holding it as a support level," he said.
Kosar said the Nikkei, at a 15-year high is up against the important level of 20,833, the equivalent of Nasdaq's 15-year high. "That's been positively correlated to the S&P since 2007," he said. "You've got that and you have topping, declining technical conditions apparent in the London FTSE and Hang Seng."
He said a number of correlated global markets are showing signs of a near-term peak. "Does that mean you sell your stocks and hide under your bed? No … we're telling clients to be a little more defensive than they normally are," he said. "This is a seasonal time of year, and everyone praises the seasonals when they work and writes it off as an old wives tail when it doesn't."
Stocks typically underperform in the summer months before turning higher in the fall and outperform for the fourth quarter.
What to watch
7 a.m.: Weekly mortgage applications
8:30 a.m.: Third reading of first-quarter GDP
10:30 a.m.: Oil inventories data
1 p.m.: Treasury auctions $35 billion 5-year notes; Eurogroup meets on Greece.
http://ift.tt/1e2kVgX
TNT:
[LAS] Okay, I've got some intel. Here we go. My daughter is a surgical dental assistant and works for a temp agency. She was sent out to a dental office today and after leaving the office she called me to tell me she had intel.
I said "What?" She said she worked with a young man from Iraq and she overheard him talking to the doc about recently coming to the States from Iraq. He said that he and his family want to go back to Iraq but at this time cannot.
Some time later in the day my daughter ran into the young man and she asked him, "When is the dinar going to revalue?" He said it going to come out at 1:1 in-country and my daughter said "It's going to be higher in the US." He said "Yes" and then talked about Kuwait being at 3 something.
That's where the conversation ended. Hope this little bit encourages you.
*********************************
KTFA:
Thunderhawk » June 23rd, 2015, 10:26 pm Backdoc Alert
CME delays closing the futures pits, just a bit
Shout on the floor while you can, traders.
The CME Group said it would delay closing its outcry futures trading in Chicago and New York, if only by a few days.
Previously scheduled to close on July 2, the last day for most open outcry futures trading is expected to take place on July 6, pending expiration of CFTC review periods, CME announced Tuesday.
Still, the CME said it could further delay the closure for up to 90 days depending on the CFTC's review.
http://ift.tt/1IcB6Ez
**************
Thunderhawk » June 23rd, 2015, 10:29 pm Backdoc Alert
VIDEO: GDP: This time, a revision worth examining
GDP revisions are oft times shrugged off as a look through the rearview mirror, but this time the look back is worthwhile since it's bound to be brighter than the earlier view.
First-quarter GDP, reported at 8:30 a.m. ET Wednesday, is expectded to have contracted by 0.2 percent, but that's an improvement over the previous revision's contraction of 0.7 percent. There had been concerns a tough winter could have made it even worse, with a decline of 1 percent or greater.
"It simply means the beginning of the year wasn't as bad as we thought," said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies. "We probably don't have to worry quite as much about the rest of the year." So far, second-quarter GDP is tracking at about 3 percent, about a point better than earlier in the quarter when some of the data was affected by weather.
Markets are also watching developments around Greece's efforts to strike a deal with creditors. There's a Eurogroup meeting in Brussels on the matter at 1 p.m. ET Wednesday. Risk markets have rallied this week as traders bet there would be a deal that averts a Greek exit from the euro zone.
The Dow was up 24 on Tuesday, at 18,144, and the S&P 500 was 1 point higher at 2,124. The Nasdaq, however, gained 6 points to a record high of 5,160.
Treasury yields also rose Tuesday as markets looked past Greece, but also as a big Heinz debt issuance pressured Treasury prices. Strategists say the move in yields was a bearish change in momentum, after the flight-to-quality trade that drove rates lower last week. The 10-year was yielding 2.41 percent late in the day, and several strategists said its next target is about 2.50 percent.
"I don't think it's going to be a steady rise in rates, but I do think the worm has turned," McCarthy said. There is a $35 billion 5-year auction at 1 p.m. ET.
John Kosar, chief strategist at Asbury Research, said he's watching the action in the Nasdaq composite to see if it confirms a breakout. The Nasdaq returned to 5,133 for the first time in 15 years last week.
"Markets basically expand, then they compress," he said. "Right now they're really compressing, which tells you we're going to get an expansion. The $64,000 question is which way."
Kosar said he's concerned by Nasdaq. "For me, I want to see it start trading above the 5,133 level for a week or two and start holding it as a support level," he said.
Kosar said the Nikkei, at a 15-year high is up against the important level of 20,833, the equivalent of Nasdaq's 15-year high. "That's been positively correlated to the S&P since 2007," he said. "You've got that and you have topping, declining technical conditions apparent in the London FTSE and Hang Seng."
He said a number of correlated global markets are showing signs of a near-term peak. "Does that mean you sell your stocks and hide under your bed? No … we're telling clients to be a little more defensive than they normally are," he said. "This is a seasonal time of year, and everyone praises the seasonals when they work and writes it off as an old wives tail when it doesn't."
Stocks typically underperform in the summer months before turning higher in the fall and outperform for the fourth quarter.
What to watch
7 a.m.: Weekly mortgage applications
8:30 a.m.: Third reading of first-quarter GDP
10:30 a.m.: Oil inventories data
1 p.m.: Treasury auctions $35 billion 5-year notes; Eurogroup meets on Greece.
http://ift.tt/1e2kVgX
Backdoc » June 24th, 2015, 1:19 am DR THUNDER,
YOU ARE DOING THE FAMILY PROUD TONIGHT BROTHER. WOW!
I WONDER HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR GREECE TO TELL THE WORLD AFTER THE 7TH, THAT THEY'VE BEEN INVITED TO THE DANCE AND THEY'VE ACCEPTED??? MMMMMM
DOC IMO
***********
A tango lesson for Greece
The Greek debt load isn't sustainable. Take it from an Argentine.
The threat of a Greek default and exit from the eurozone constantly invites comparisons with Argentina’s record default in 2002, which followed the end of the peso’s peg to the U.S. dollar.
There are many parallels and just as many differences. However, there is one point that I believe is most relevant for the negotiations between Athens and its creditors in Europe and the International Monetary Fund: debt sustainability.
In my experience as chief negotiator for two agreements with the IMF and Argentina’s debt restructuring of 2005, it is critical that the resulting level of debt is sustainable from day one, not two or three years down the road — let alone by 2020.
This was not the case of Greece. In the initial restructuring in 2012, European leaders gave a “haircut” to Greece’s debt that bore no relationship to what the country could afford to repay.
Instead, EU political leaders opted for a debt reduction that would be acceptable for private investors, but left the Greek people and political system with the burden of adjustment.
Part of the problem was that the European institutions were not ready to handle a financial crisis of such magnitude, and rightly used the past couple of years to adapt and prepare.
When we hammered out Argentina’s debt restructuring, we knew the write-off in our calculations would exceed previous restructurings, including the 42 percent for Russian bonds and the 27 percent for Ecuadorian debt.
Unfortunately, these were not useful comparisons. The Russian default centered on domestic-law debt held by a few international hedge funds and by Russians banks. However, authorities took advantage of the more limited scope of the domestic debt problem and avoided defaulting on its global bonds.
In terms of size as well as macroeconomic efforts, Argentina’s case more closely resembled post-war Germany. It took until the London Conference of 1952 to advance Germany’s debt restructuring, with a write-off of more than 77 percent and a flexible repayment schedule.
At the time, Argentina had one of the highest ratios of debt from multilateral creditors to total debt. But instead of pursuing the necessary fiscal corrections and facing up to the restructuring reality, Argentina opted for a bailout from the IMF in 2001. In doing so, the country missed the chance to sort out its finances with a larger write-off.
Debt becomes too rigid
A similar mistake has been committed in the case of Greece, which has signed two bailouts with its European partners and the IMF.
By not restructuring economies in crisis early on, multilateral lenders have allowed two negative effects to take hold:
Official credit facilitates “capital flight.” Bondholders with better information get out early, leaving the burden of the increased official debt to the treasury of the country receiving aid, which leads to higher taxes.
Reducing the level of private debt and increasing official multilateral creditor debt means the “rigidity” of the debt also increases.
In the second stage, government officials and international financial institutions start to worry because, at the end of the day, government loans are part of the budgetary process of the lender countries and elected officials must consider their own citizens.
They get cold feet, as is happening with Greece now, especially in the case of Germany.
In theory, such official loans have “preferred creditor status,” meaning they are repaid first.
Is that really possible, considering Greece’s debt structure today?
In practice, preferred creditor status can only be respected if the increase in indebtedness assures the debt can be ultimately be repaid.
But the Greek experience shows sustainability has not been considered.
It’s obvious key policymakers have made no accurate projection for Greece’s performance, yet we are supposed to believe that things will work out almost 10 years from now, when we don’t even know where we are going to be next year.
I am afraid that in the current circumstances, we have to look for creative solutions which may involve even more government money.
This could well mean that a great deal of the official debt with European institutions has to be transformed into a sort of “perpetual bond” with an extremely low interest rate.
As in Argentina in 2005, Greece and European institutions have a tremendous responsibility for shaping future debt restructuring. All market participants, particularly official institutions, should support Greece and help advance the regulatory framework that is essential in times of crisis.
This would help the wider international community create a more predictable economic environment.
Guillermo Nielsen was Argentina’s secretary of finance and chief debt negotiator from 2002-2005, during two stand-by agreements with the IMF and the private debt restructuring of 2005. He was later the Argentinian ambassador to Germany.
http://ift.tt/1GF6usZ
By GUILLERMO NIELSEN 23/6/15, 7:28 PM CET
YOU ARE DOING THE FAMILY PROUD TONIGHT BROTHER. WOW!
I WONDER HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR GREECE TO TELL THE WORLD AFTER THE 7TH, THAT THEY'VE BEEN INVITED TO THE DANCE AND THEY'VE ACCEPTED??? MMMMMM
DOC IMO
***********
A tango lesson for Greece
The Greek debt load isn't sustainable. Take it from an Argentine.
The threat of a Greek default and exit from the eurozone constantly invites comparisons with Argentina’s record default in 2002, which followed the end of the peso’s peg to the U.S. dollar.
There are many parallels and just as many differences. However, there is one point that I believe is most relevant for the negotiations between Athens and its creditors in Europe and the International Monetary Fund: debt sustainability.
In my experience as chief negotiator for two agreements with the IMF and Argentina’s debt restructuring of 2005, it is critical that the resulting level of debt is sustainable from day one, not two or three years down the road — let alone by 2020.
This was not the case of Greece. In the initial restructuring in 2012, European leaders gave a “haircut” to Greece’s debt that bore no relationship to what the country could afford to repay.
Instead, EU political leaders opted for a debt reduction that would be acceptable for private investors, but left the Greek people and political system with the burden of adjustment.
Part of the problem was that the European institutions were not ready to handle a financial crisis of such magnitude, and rightly used the past couple of years to adapt and prepare.
When we hammered out Argentina’s debt restructuring, we knew the write-off in our calculations would exceed previous restructurings, including the 42 percent for Russian bonds and the 27 percent for Ecuadorian debt.
Unfortunately, these were not useful comparisons. The Russian default centered on domestic-law debt held by a few international hedge funds and by Russians banks. However, authorities took advantage of the more limited scope of the domestic debt problem and avoided defaulting on its global bonds.
In terms of size as well as macroeconomic efforts, Argentina’s case more closely resembled post-war Germany. It took until the London Conference of 1952 to advance Germany’s debt restructuring, with a write-off of more than 77 percent and a flexible repayment schedule.
At the time, Argentina had one of the highest ratios of debt from multilateral creditors to total debt. But instead of pursuing the necessary fiscal corrections and facing up to the restructuring reality, Argentina opted for a bailout from the IMF in 2001. In doing so, the country missed the chance to sort out its finances with a larger write-off.
Debt becomes too rigid
A similar mistake has been committed in the case of Greece, which has signed two bailouts with its European partners and the IMF.
By not restructuring economies in crisis early on, multilateral lenders have allowed two negative effects to take hold:
Official credit facilitates “capital flight.” Bondholders with better information get out early, leaving the burden of the increased official debt to the treasury of the country receiving aid, which leads to higher taxes.
Reducing the level of private debt and increasing official multilateral creditor debt means the “rigidity” of the debt also increases.
In the second stage, government officials and international financial institutions start to worry because, at the end of the day, government loans are part of the budgetary process of the lender countries and elected officials must consider their own citizens.
They get cold feet, as is happening with Greece now, especially in the case of Germany.
In theory, such official loans have “preferred creditor status,” meaning they are repaid first.
Is that really possible, considering Greece’s debt structure today?
In practice, preferred creditor status can only be respected if the increase in indebtedness assures the debt can be ultimately be repaid.
But the Greek experience shows sustainability has not been considered.
It’s obvious key policymakers have made no accurate projection for Greece’s performance, yet we are supposed to believe that things will work out almost 10 years from now, when we don’t even know where we are going to be next year.
I am afraid that in the current circumstances, we have to look for creative solutions which may involve even more government money.
This could well mean that a great deal of the official debt with European institutions has to be transformed into a sort of “perpetual bond” with an extremely low interest rate.
As in Argentina in 2005, Greece and European institutions have a tremendous responsibility for shaping future debt restructuring. All market participants, particularly official institutions, should support Greece and help advance the regulatory framework that is essential in times of crisis.
This would help the wider international community create a more predictable economic environment.
Guillermo Nielsen was Argentina’s secretary of finance and chief debt negotiator from 2002-2005, during two stand-by agreements with the IMF and the private debt restructuring of 2005. He was later the Argentinian ambassador to Germany.
http://ift.tt/1GF6usZ
By GUILLERMO NIELSEN 23/6/15, 7:28 PM CET
via Dinar Recaps - Our Blog http://ift.tt/1QPOOmx
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