TNT:
Moneysmart: GM family! Forex holding at 1100.9
Iko Ward: Notice all the intel and opinions use the word "waiting"? That's a good thing. The whole world is waiting, not wondering if, not wondering how much, simply waiting.
elmerf123456 : The charts NEVER lie..... The French bank Credit Agrigole started tracking the same decline curve as Glencore!! Why!?? Because the bank was literally creating mortgages on copper!!
Now that's a huge losing derivative!!
To the tune of about $100 billion! I bet those boys over at Credit Agrigole sure wish there really was a Santa Claus, cuz that wolf at the door is going to be pounding coal up where the sun don't shine... REAL SOON! IMO
elmerf123456 : Ask IkO. He's the techno led expert but the charts look primed to me globally.
....
Moneysmart: GM family! Forex holding at 1100.9
Iko Ward: Notice all the intel and opinions use the word "waiting"? That's a good thing. The whole world is waiting, not wondering if, not wondering how much, simply waiting.
elmerf123456 : The charts NEVER lie..... The French bank Credit Agrigole started tracking the same decline curve as Glencore!! Why!?? Because the bank was literally creating mortgages on copper!!
Now that's a huge losing derivative!!
To the tune of about $100 billion! I bet those boys over at Credit Agrigole sure wish there really was a Santa Claus, cuz that wolf at the door is going to be pounding coal up where the sun don't shine... REAL SOON! IMO
elmerf123456 : Ask IkO. He's the techno led expert but the charts look primed to me globally.
....
elmerf123456 : DeutscheBank executives are leaving the "Plato" dark pool fund!! It doesn't appear that they came to that decision on their own, more like they were gracefully thrown out, you know, kinda like how a bar fight ends!
Starchild : Elmer - also - did you see Fortress is liquidating...?
elmerf123456 : Star yes. Domino affect I mentioned earlier is happening
elmerf123456 : Fortress announced it is closing down its Macro Hedge Fund. So far, we have lost 6 hedge funds in just one week!! Now, with DeutscheBank selling assets, Glencore selling assets, Carlyle Group selling assets AND increasing the basket of assets being sold off; it is abundantly clear, there is no magic miracle way out of this collapse.
************
Rrrr: This is truly our moment, our destined place in time. Are you feeling the energy, as it continues to climb? There’s no holding back now, this things about to ignite. We are battered and bruised, but we’ve have finally won the fight. The fight to release, to all of mankind, the plans that lay dormant so long in our minds. We are the light workers and we can now set the stage for the day, for a new world beginning, It will all be OK!
[daz] might want to check this out China's Rich & Famous - Rich Lifestyle- Piers Morgan on Shanghai . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNG3I3-3TdI
just in case you thought china and the renminbi were'nt players
SAME THING IN SINGAPORE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESCk7pmuR4k
************
CJ101: Central bank cavalry can no longer save the world
(Reuters - by David Chance, October 10, 2015)
In 2008 central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, rode to the rescue of the global financial system. Seven years on and trillions of dollars later they no longer have the answers and may even represent a major risk for the global economy.
A report by the Group of Thirty, an international body led by former European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet, warned on Saturday that zero rates and money printing were not sufficient to revive economic growth and risked becoming semi-permanent measures.
"Central banks have described their actions as 'buying time' for governments to finally resolve the crisis... But time is wearing on, and (bond) purchases have had their price," the report said.
In the United States, the Federal Reserve ended its bond purchase program in 2014, and had been expected to raise interest rates from zero as early as June 2015.
But it may struggle to implement its first hike in almost 10 years by the end of the year. Market pricing in interest rate futures puts a hike in March 2016.
The Bank of England has also delayed, while the European Central Bank looks set to implement another round of quantitative easing, as does the Bank of Japan which has been stuck in some form of quantitative easing since 2001.
Reuters calculates that central banks in those four countries alone have spent around $7 trillion in bond purchases.
The flow of easy money has inflated asset prices like stocks and housing in many countries even as they failed to stimulate economic growth. With growth estimates trending lower and easy money increasing company leverage, the specter of a debt trap is now haunting advanced economies, the Group of Thirty said.
The Fed has pledged that when it does hike rates, it will be at a slow pace so as not to strangle the U.S. economic recovery, one of the longest, but weakest on record in the post-war period. Yet, forecasts by one regional Fed president shows he expects negative rates in 2016.
AN END TO "EXTEND AND PRETEND"
Most policymakers at the semi-annual IMF meetings this week have presented relatively upbeat forecasts for the world economy and say risks have been largely contained. The G30, however, warned that the 40 percent decline in commodity prices could presage weaker growth and "debt deflation".
Rates would then have to remain low as central banks would be forced to maintain or extend their bond programs to try and bolster growth and the price of financial assets would fall.
That is not just a developed-world problem. In China, credits to state-owned enterprises and increasingly by the shadow banking sector have been a driving force in an investment splurge in the world's second largest economy.
According to an IMF report issued this week, there is "excessive" lending of $3 trillion in emerging market economies, an average of 15 percent of gross domestic product, which runs the risk of unwinding should economic conditions worsen.
"Capital losses would affect many investors, including banks, and the process of extend and pretend for poor loans would have to come to a stop," the G30 report said.
Even in a more benign economic outlook, central banks will have a tough time exiting easy money policies and may face demands to hold rates low. The IMF has repeatedly urged the Fed not to hike rates yet.
None of the world's major central banks are remotely close to hitting their inflation targets and many of them are haunted by memories of high inflation. The European Central Bank was born with, and still has, a sole inflation mandate.
With the consequences of an exit from easy money so unpredictable, the G30 said the risk was of exiting too late for fear of sparking another crisis.
"Faced with uncertainty, the natural default position is the status quo," the G30 said. ##
(Reporting by David Chance;
SOURCE: http://ift.tt/1Ot7HYU
Starchild : Elmer - also - did you see Fortress is liquidating...?
elmerf123456 : Star yes. Domino affect I mentioned earlier is happening
elmerf123456 : Fortress announced it is closing down its Macro Hedge Fund. So far, we have lost 6 hedge funds in just one week!! Now, with DeutscheBank selling assets, Glencore selling assets, Carlyle Group selling assets AND increasing the basket of assets being sold off; it is abundantly clear, there is no magic miracle way out of this collapse.
************
Rrrr: This is truly our moment, our destined place in time. Are you feeling the energy, as it continues to climb? There’s no holding back now, this things about to ignite. We are battered and bruised, but we’ve have finally won the fight. The fight to release, to all of mankind, the plans that lay dormant so long in our minds. We are the light workers and we can now set the stage for the day, for a new world beginning, It will all be OK!
[daz] might want to check this out China's Rich & Famous - Rich Lifestyle- Piers Morgan on Shanghai . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNG3I3-3TdI
just in case you thought china and the renminbi were'nt players
SAME THING IN SINGAPORE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESCk7pmuR4k
************
CJ101: Central bank cavalry can no longer save the world
(Reuters - by David Chance, October 10, 2015)
In 2008 central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, rode to the rescue of the global financial system. Seven years on and trillions of dollars later they no longer have the answers and may even represent a major risk for the global economy.
A report by the Group of Thirty, an international body led by former European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet, warned on Saturday that zero rates and money printing were not sufficient to revive economic growth and risked becoming semi-permanent measures.
"Central banks have described their actions as 'buying time' for governments to finally resolve the crisis... But time is wearing on, and (bond) purchases have had their price," the report said.
In the United States, the Federal Reserve ended its bond purchase program in 2014, and had been expected to raise interest rates from zero as early as June 2015.
But it may struggle to implement its first hike in almost 10 years by the end of the year. Market pricing in interest rate futures puts a hike in March 2016.
The Bank of England has also delayed, while the European Central Bank looks set to implement another round of quantitative easing, as does the Bank of Japan which has been stuck in some form of quantitative easing since 2001.
Reuters calculates that central banks in those four countries alone have spent around $7 trillion in bond purchases.
The flow of easy money has inflated asset prices like stocks and housing in many countries even as they failed to stimulate economic growth. With growth estimates trending lower and easy money increasing company leverage, the specter of a debt trap is now haunting advanced economies, the Group of Thirty said.
The Fed has pledged that when it does hike rates, it will be at a slow pace so as not to strangle the U.S. economic recovery, one of the longest, but weakest on record in the post-war period. Yet, forecasts by one regional Fed president shows he expects negative rates in 2016.
AN END TO "EXTEND AND PRETEND"
Most policymakers at the semi-annual IMF meetings this week have presented relatively upbeat forecasts for the world economy and say risks have been largely contained. The G30, however, warned that the 40 percent decline in commodity prices could presage weaker growth and "debt deflation".
Rates would then have to remain low as central banks would be forced to maintain or extend their bond programs to try and bolster growth and the price of financial assets would fall.
That is not just a developed-world problem. In China, credits to state-owned enterprises and increasingly by the shadow banking sector have been a driving force in an investment splurge in the world's second largest economy.
According to an IMF report issued this week, there is "excessive" lending of $3 trillion in emerging market economies, an average of 15 percent of gross domestic product, which runs the risk of unwinding should economic conditions worsen.
"Capital losses would affect many investors, including banks, and the process of extend and pretend for poor loans would have to come to a stop," the G30 report said.
Even in a more benign economic outlook, central banks will have a tough time exiting easy money policies and may face demands to hold rates low. The IMF has repeatedly urged the Fed not to hike rates yet.
None of the world's major central banks are remotely close to hitting their inflation targets and many of them are haunted by memories of high inflation. The European Central Bank was born with, and still has, a sole inflation mandate.
With the consequences of an exit from easy money so unpredictable, the G30 said the risk was of exiting too late for fear of sparking another crisis.
"Faced with uncertainty, the natural default position is the status quo," the G30 said. ##
(Reporting by David Chance;
SOURCE: http://ift.tt/1Ot7HYU
Tishwash: Switzerland Said to Impose 5% Leverage Ratio on Biggest Banks
BASEL 3
Switzerland’s finance ministry will require the country’s biggest banks to have capital equal to about 5 percent of total assets after UBS Group AG and Credit Suisse Group AG sought to win easier terms, according to people briefed on the deliberations
The decision would mimic the U.S. leverage ratio for its biggest banks, which exceeds the 3 percent minimum set in a global agreement by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks aren’t public. The Swiss government will also align its calculation of the ratio with the method employed in the U.S., resulting in fewer types of debt counting toward capital, one of the people said.
The measure of financial strength has gained importance since the 2008 financial crisis as a means of making big banks less prone to collapse. A government-appointed expert panel recommended in December that Switzerland follow the lead of the U.S., which in recent years has introduced some of the world’s toughest capital requirements. Zurich-based UBS and Credit Suisse reported Basel III leverage ratios of 3.6 percent and 3.7 percent at the end of the second quarter, indicating they would be more than 1 percentage point short of the new target.
“Higher requirements mean that the banks will have fewer funds to return to shareholders,” said Andreas Brun, a Zurich-based analyst at Zuercher Kantonalbank. “For UBS, whose investment case is based on rising dividend expectations, this is a big issue. For Credit Suisse, whose capital situation is worse, this means a higher dilution because of a bigger requirement of a capital increase.”
Stock Sale
Mario Tuor, a spokesman for the government, declined to comment on the number.
Investors have fretted over the new rule for months. Participants surveyed at a Barclays Plc conference in New York last month said the leverage ratio was their biggest regulatory uncertainty for UBS. Credit Suisse was not included in the survey. Raising the legal minimum forces banks to hold larger buffers of equity as a protection against financial turmoil, potentially forcing them to scale back in profitable activities.
Leverage ratios have gained favor among regulators as the most effective way to evaluate a bank’s robustness because the method doesn’t involve estimates of risks on their activities.
The banks are aware of the government’s position and will be able to factor it into calculations of their future capital needs for their third-quarter earnings reports, three people said.
Resolving the issue is especially relevant for Credit Suisse, which will make its first major announcement on strategy under Chief Executive Officer Tidjane Thiam on Oct. 21. The bank is weighing a stock sale that may raise between 6 billion Swiss francs ($6.2 billion) and 8 billion francs, a person with knowledge of the plan said last week.
‘Apples and Potatoes’
The new rule may call for common equity to be at least 3.5 percent of assets, with the remaining 1.5 percent coming from debt instruments that can be converted into equity if the bank strays into the regulatory danger zone, one of the people said.
That would leave Credit Suisse with a capital shortfall of 8.7 billion francs, based on its financial situation at the end of the second quarter, UBS analysts Daniele Brupbacher and Mate Nemes said in a note last week.
UBS Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti, who has said he isn’t against stricter regulation in principle, has decried the plan to use a U.S.-style leverage ratio as a standard for Switzerland, insisting the two financial systems are about as similar as “apples and potatoes.” Among the differences, the market for securitized debt is bigger in the U.S., meaning its banks can pass on more of the risks of lending by packaging their loans into tradable securities.
An increase in the leverage ratio of 1 percentage point would cost UBS an extra 1 billion francs a year, he said in June. “And who profits most if we adapt to the American rules?” he said in a speech in August. “The U.S. banks.”
Both banks signaled their concern about a leverage ratio at this level in a comment in the expert report. UBS Chairman Axel Weber and Urs Rohner, his counterpart at Credit Suisse, were part of the panel.
UBS may be able to get by without raising capital, while a leverage ratio of 5 percent will leave Credit Suisse little choice, said Alevizos Alevizakos, a London-based analyst at Keefe, Bruyette and Woods Inc. “If we assume no capital raise by Credit Suisse, you’re going to have the bank by 2018 on a capital deficit,” he said in a phone interview last week.
The Swiss government said in February that it will announce the new rule this year. To that end, it set up a working group that includes the Finance Department, the Swiss National Bank, the financial regulator and the two banks. While UBS and Credit Suisse don’t have a final say, they have inundated government officials with documents setting out their position, according to one person.
Switzerland imposed some the world’s strictest too-big-to-fail requirements in 2011 after the government came to UBS’s rescue during the 2008 financial crisis. UBS and Credit Suisse have assets of 1.83 trillion francs combined, about three times the size of the Swiss gross domestic product, making the two banking behemoths a disproportionately bigger danger to their country’s economy if they fail than their peers elsewhere. Both are compliant with all Swiss capital rules.
“The loss potential for the Swiss big banks – estimated under the different adverse scenarios considered – continues to be substantial relative to their capitalization,” the SNB said in a report in June. The central bank recommended the banks improve their leverage ratio.
Regulators are now fine-tuning the proposed rule, which the government still has to approve. While 5 percent is more than the banks deem necessary, the leverage ratio is still below what some Swiss lawmakers have demanded. The Swiss lower house last month called on the government to increase the leverage ratio to 6 percent over two years.
“Regulators are pushing and the banks are squealing,” said Eric Knight, founder and chief executive officer of Knight Vinke Asset Management LLC, a UBS shareholder who has called on the lender to spin off its securities unit.
http://ift.tt/1PczxdB
BASEL 3
Switzerland’s finance ministry will require the country’s biggest banks to have capital equal to about 5 percent of total assets after UBS Group AG and Credit Suisse Group AG sought to win easier terms, according to people briefed on the deliberations
The decision would mimic the U.S. leverage ratio for its biggest banks, which exceeds the 3 percent minimum set in a global agreement by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks aren’t public. The Swiss government will also align its calculation of the ratio with the method employed in the U.S., resulting in fewer types of debt counting toward capital, one of the people said.
The measure of financial strength has gained importance since the 2008 financial crisis as a means of making big banks less prone to collapse. A government-appointed expert panel recommended in December that Switzerland follow the lead of the U.S., which in recent years has introduced some of the world’s toughest capital requirements. Zurich-based UBS and Credit Suisse reported Basel III leverage ratios of 3.6 percent and 3.7 percent at the end of the second quarter, indicating they would be more than 1 percentage point short of the new target.
“Higher requirements mean that the banks will have fewer funds to return to shareholders,” said Andreas Brun, a Zurich-based analyst at Zuercher Kantonalbank. “For UBS, whose investment case is based on rising dividend expectations, this is a big issue. For Credit Suisse, whose capital situation is worse, this means a higher dilution because of a bigger requirement of a capital increase.”
Stock Sale
Mario Tuor, a spokesman for the government, declined to comment on the number.
Investors have fretted over the new rule for months. Participants surveyed at a Barclays Plc conference in New York last month said the leverage ratio was their biggest regulatory uncertainty for UBS. Credit Suisse was not included in the survey. Raising the legal minimum forces banks to hold larger buffers of equity as a protection against financial turmoil, potentially forcing them to scale back in profitable activities.
Leverage ratios have gained favor among regulators as the most effective way to evaluate a bank’s robustness because the method doesn’t involve estimates of risks on their activities.
The banks are aware of the government’s position and will be able to factor it into calculations of their future capital needs for their third-quarter earnings reports, three people said.
Resolving the issue is especially relevant for Credit Suisse, which will make its first major announcement on strategy under Chief Executive Officer Tidjane Thiam on Oct. 21. The bank is weighing a stock sale that may raise between 6 billion Swiss francs ($6.2 billion) and 8 billion francs, a person with knowledge of the plan said last week.
‘Apples and Potatoes’
The new rule may call for common equity to be at least 3.5 percent of assets, with the remaining 1.5 percent coming from debt instruments that can be converted into equity if the bank strays into the regulatory danger zone, one of the people said.
That would leave Credit Suisse with a capital shortfall of 8.7 billion francs, based on its financial situation at the end of the second quarter, UBS analysts Daniele Brupbacher and Mate Nemes said in a note last week.
UBS Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti, who has said he isn’t against stricter regulation in principle, has decried the plan to use a U.S.-style leverage ratio as a standard for Switzerland, insisting the two financial systems are about as similar as “apples and potatoes.” Among the differences, the market for securitized debt is bigger in the U.S., meaning its banks can pass on more of the risks of lending by packaging their loans into tradable securities.
An increase in the leverage ratio of 1 percentage point would cost UBS an extra 1 billion francs a year, he said in June. “And who profits most if we adapt to the American rules?” he said in a speech in August. “The U.S. banks.”
Both banks signaled their concern about a leverage ratio at this level in a comment in the expert report. UBS Chairman Axel Weber and Urs Rohner, his counterpart at Credit Suisse, were part of the panel.
UBS may be able to get by without raising capital, while a leverage ratio of 5 percent will leave Credit Suisse little choice, said Alevizos Alevizakos, a London-based analyst at Keefe, Bruyette and Woods Inc. “If we assume no capital raise by Credit Suisse, you’re going to have the bank by 2018 on a capital deficit,” he said in a phone interview last week.
The Swiss government said in February that it will announce the new rule this year. To that end, it set up a working group that includes the Finance Department, the Swiss National Bank, the financial regulator and the two banks. While UBS and Credit Suisse don’t have a final say, they have inundated government officials with documents setting out their position, according to one person.
Switzerland imposed some the world’s strictest too-big-to-fail requirements in 2011 after the government came to UBS’s rescue during the 2008 financial crisis. UBS and Credit Suisse have assets of 1.83 trillion francs combined, about three times the size of the Swiss gross domestic product, making the two banking behemoths a disproportionately bigger danger to their country’s economy if they fail than their peers elsewhere. Both are compliant with all Swiss capital rules.
“The loss potential for the Swiss big banks – estimated under the different adverse scenarios considered – continues to be substantial relative to their capitalization,” the SNB said in a report in June. The central bank recommended the banks improve their leverage ratio.
Regulators are now fine-tuning the proposed rule, which the government still has to approve. While 5 percent is more than the banks deem necessary, the leverage ratio is still below what some Swiss lawmakers have demanded. The Swiss lower house last month called on the government to increase the leverage ratio to 6 percent over two years.
“Regulators are pushing and the banks are squealing,” said Eric Knight, founder and chief executive officer of Knight Vinke Asset Management LLC, a UBS shareholder who has called on the lender to spin off its securities unit.
http://ift.tt/1PczxdB
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