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Monday, October 26, 2015

New Money Influx - Reduction In Supply = A Rise In Value

Enorrste Post Emailed to Dinar Recaps

"The influx of new money will allow for a reduction in the money supply and a rise in the value of the dinar.  This benefits us, but won't affect the budget crisis much" Enorrste

​IMF 
Moves To Help Iraq Condition Undergoing Regulatory Program

Snippet -- 
The International Monetary Fund has provided $ 1.25 billion in emergency aid to Iraq in order to heal everything from crack deficit in the budget of the country which is expected to reach 23% for the current year.
 
As expected for the surveillance program, which is still under discussion to help Iraq to receive aid from creditors , including the World Bank, as well as introducing guarantees to investors according to Ahmed. But will this measure pave the way for the country's return to the market in the first half of the year in order to get a bigger funding.


Enorrste:   The article is giving the opinion of a member of the CBI as well as that of the IMF.  The CBI member Ismail said that the CBI believes that moving to a float would "slightly affect" the financial condition of the GOI positively while the IMF was saying that moving to a float would not positively affect government finances, in their view. 
 ~~~
Enorrste:  The argument from the IMF is that the vast majority of the government income is from oil revenue and is therefore from foreign countries (i.e., not in dinars).  Thus, the IMF is probably correct with respect to solving the GOI financial crisis.
 
Enorrste:  However, moving to a float will have a positive economic affect in the country over the longer term.  As I noted in an earlier thread, the Investment Law will allow foreigners to invest in Iraq with some guarantees, as is also noted in this post by Ahmed, just above. 
 
Enorrste:  With the introduction of new investment from foreigners the float becomes a real possibility.  It will not only put a floor on the value of the dinar but, over time, will cause its value to rise.  This is what we are looking for.
 
Enorrste:  But the article is not concerned with us or with the value of the dinar.  It is instead concerned about the critical financial situation of the GOI.  The commentary is that the float, in itself, won't have much affect on solving the budget crisis, and that is true. 
 
Enorrste:  But the float WILL raise the value of the dinar, because the float will not be possible until foreigners begin investing in Iraq. 

The influx of new money will allow for a reduction in the money supply and a rise in the value of the dinar. 

This benefits us, but won't affect the budget crisis much.  As KAP said above, "a dinar is a dinar" within the country.
 
 Article Being referenced:

IMF Moves To Help Iraq Condition Undergoing Regulatory Program
 
Thursday - October 22 (October) 2015 - the fourth year - Issue 1362
 
BAGHDAD - A rumbling Almamori
 
plans to the International Monetary Fund to send a specialized team to Iraq next month in order to initiate negotiations that could lead to pump more support for Iraq, which suffers the cruelty of the fall in world oil prices and the sharp impact on the economy, which Yan under the weight of the war against al-Daash terrorist.
 
And accompanied this with reduce Genel Energy Company expectations about Iraq Kurdistan oil production for the current year as a result of stalled payment of the company's receivables from exports of the region to the outside, according to Bloomberg's ", it adds new burdens and future risks to the country's financial and economic situation jittery originally lost Dharv current war.
 
At the time "Special software does not include monitoring the support by the International Monetary Fund, but it creates a framework to track Iraq's problems and address them according to what he said Masood Ahmed, who heads the operations of the Fund in Dubai."
 
According to Ahmed, it is supposed that the program plan to work to start by next year 2016, which opens the way for Iraq to go to IMF financing program at a later time next year if all goes well.
 
struggling Iraq in the face of a fierce war against al Daash terrorist who managed to seize large tracts of land in fighters Iraq, which is the second largest oil exporter in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and at a time when world oil prices fell strongly to the extent that the financial country's imports being squeezed odds with the expectations of a decline of production in the medium-level perhaps.
 
The International Monetary Fund has provided $ 1.25 billion in emergency aid to Iraq in order to heal everything from crack deficit in the budget of the country which is expected to reach 23% for the current year.
 
As expected for the surveillance program, which is still under discussion to help Iraq to receive aid from creditors , including the World Bank, as well as introducing guarantees to investors according to Ahmed. But will this measure pave the way for the country's return to the market in the first half of the year in order to get a bigger funding.
 
In a related development, it is expected of Iraq's economy will achieve a growth of zero for this year compared to a growth rate of 2.1 in the last year 2014, the International Monetary Fund estimates.
 
At a time when the fund that indicates the current Iraqi crisis does not represent a direct threat to the value of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar as confirms the Iraqi Central Bank Governor Ali Mohsen Ismail, however, he said that this situation could affect slightly the exchange rate in a manner supportive of the Iraqi government revenues.
 
But Ahmed He says that the International Monetary Fund believes that the re-pricing of the Iraqi currency float or will not lead to a significant positive change in the economic situation of the country.
 
He adds Ahmed, saying, "If you look at public spending, a significant proportion of it are in foreign currency, which means that the currency was floated or re-pricing will not contribute significantly to the financing of the budget deficit as much as it will cause the dangers of war additional price affect the Iraqi interior dangerously relatively" .
 
On the other hand, Genel Energy Company which is based in the London-based confirms it expects the rate does not exceed pumped the total amount of oil from the northern fields of the region more than 85000-90000 barrels of crude per day for the current year compared to an average of 90,000 to 100,000, which represents the roof of the initial forecast for this year.
 
Also, the company has reduced its expenses and expectations of returns as well, where the company's shares fell on the exchange rate of 5.8%, according to "Bloomberg"
 
Moreover, the oil producers of other foreigners in the region, including Golf Keystone Petroleum friendly to or rather caught the middle of the problem of the financial dispute and oil between the provincial government and the center for years.
 
In the month of December of last year, the two sides in Arbil and Baghdad agreed to allow an increase in export shipments, but the companies have not been able to benefit since it did not receive their dues until last month as a result of falling oil prices on the one hand and the high cost of the ongoing war against extremists Daash the other hand, , which accumulated many additional burdens on government resources.
 
Through a telephone conversation with the Director of Financial Operations Office in Genel company, between Monaghan, told "Bloomberg" that "in view of the position of the current financial payment which was not normal, we found ourselves forced to reduce our investments in Drilling operations ".
 
He said Monaghan said, "It is well known in the field of oil fields that in the event of reduced investment, that will certainly reflect on the pace of output decline."
 
Reducing spending
 
and resumed the Kurdistan Regional Government to pay the financial dues of oil to foreign companies the month of September.
 
The company said Genel last week that its partners in the Taq Taq oil field received a total financial receivables of $ 30 million from exports, accounting for the proportion of Genel, including $ 16.5 million, which is equivalent to the share received by the last month.
 
But after receiving the company's dues, returned the prices of shares the rise in the London Stock Exchange to offset some of the losses, which rose 9.6% after news of receipt confirmation. 
The Company does not still waiting for their dues for the production of collar field that is supposed to be soon as assurances Andrew Benbow who serves as spokesman for Genel company. The company has received $ 8 million for its share of the question for the past month, production of the field.
 
In a related development, the deployment site First Energy Capital specializes affairs oil investments through his recently says, "The contraction of the output frequency in the fields of Taq Taq and collar in light of the political situation vagus and it is currently stable in Kurdistan, but represents an issue of concern.
 
" He said the site "We hope to lead the situation to intensify pressure on the authorities of the region in order to speed up payments to the oil companies."
 
However, these Wishlist did not reflect the decision of Genel company reduce allocated to operations for the current year to $ 150-175mleon expenses after it was expecting spending up 200 million according to previous estimates.
 
The company also lowered from the roof of its forecast for sales this year 2015 to sink to 350-375 million dollars after it was original expectations of between 350-400 million dollars based on the Brent light crude benchmark price of $ 50 a barrel last quarter of this year, this crude, which is sold currently at $ 48.5 a barrel.
 
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