Post From Dinar Updates
Chat Room Excerpts & Highlights
Dinar Updates Chat 3-18-16 Part 3 of 3
rcookie says():PLEASE READ THIS....AWESOME INSIGHT!!!.......
rcookie says():The economic future of Kurdistan
At the moment, employs «Kurdistan Regional Government» 1.4 million residents of the region who are of working age, who number two million people, at a cost of 793 million dollars a month. So Erbil plans to reduce that figure to $ 361 million during the six months through salary cuts.
And other monthly expenses include subsidies for fuel and electricity (about $ 375 million and this figure is on the decline), and the costs of the war (about 197 million dollars), and the costs of exporting oil (about 70 million dollars).
In addition, resulted in a large number of displaced persons and refugees, who arrived to 1.8 million people (compared with the indigenous population of 5 million people) to the degree of economic turmoil is difficult to quantify.
Even if the effects of the economic reforms began and manifested costs of the war began to be reduced slowly, it is likely to remain on the «Kurdistan Regional Government» afford monthly expenses worth $ 800 to almost $ 850 million.
~~~
Chat Room Excerpts & Highlights
Dinar Updates Chat 3-18-16 Part 3 of 3
rcookie says():PLEASE READ THIS....AWESOME INSIGHT!!!.......
rcookie says():The economic future of Kurdistan
At the moment, employs «Kurdistan Regional Government» 1.4 million residents of the region who are of working age, who number two million people, at a cost of 793 million dollars a month. So Erbil plans to reduce that figure to $ 361 million during the six months through salary cuts.
And other monthly expenses include subsidies for fuel and electricity (about $ 375 million and this figure is on the decline), and the costs of the war (about 197 million dollars), and the costs of exporting oil (about 70 million dollars).
In addition, resulted in a large number of displaced persons and refugees, who arrived to 1.8 million people (compared with the indigenous population of 5 million people) to the degree of economic turmoil is difficult to quantify.
Even if the effects of the economic reforms began and manifested costs of the war began to be reduced slowly, it is likely to remain on the «Kurdistan Regional Government» afford monthly expenses worth $ 800 to almost $ 850 million.
~~~
In the second half of 2015, the average oil sales in «the Kurdistan Regional Government» $ 629 million a month, according to the Ministry of Natural Resources.
It is likely that declining oil prices and unrest pipelines lead to keep yields at these low levels or even contraction over it (for example, did not report oil revenues in the past month, only $ 303 million due to pipeline problems). P «Kurdistan Regional Government» City already $ 25 billion of this debt will continue to increase by about $ 200 million a month if current oil prices stabilized. In the absence of many of the civil servants' salaries in four months, increasing the prospect of strikes and unrest and the accelerated pace of migration.
Read More : http://ift.tt/1Zdkym5
rcookie says():And oil prices unexpectedly did not rise from the current average of $ 40 to $ 60 at least per barrel, would continue «the Kurdistan Regional Government» delays in salary payments and the payment of debt obligations to domestic creditors and the international oil traders.
For its part, the current plan will provide the list to send aid to tens of millions of dollar «Kurdistan Regional Government» some economic comfort and keep the operational capacity of certain segments of the Peshmerga fighters.
However, this plan may not allow sufficient time to carry out reforms and the restoration of creditworthiness for «the Kurdistan Regional Government» and re-investment in infrastructure and to avoid instability.
Read More : http://ift.tt/1Zdkym5
rcookie says():Similarly, the modern investment for "the World Bank" in Iraq Cardstania element, such as improving roads, costing $ 255 million, which is funded federal projects and some small projects in the «Kurdistan region» plan.
Is currently being applied, "the observer program by the staff," prepared by the "International Monetary Fund" (a gesture smoothed arrangements backup fully funded), which involved overseeing the implementation by Iraq with the obligations of the budget and ensure that the state conducting the agreed savings without further accumulation of arrears to creditors local and international.
Read More : http://ift.tt/1Zdkym5
rcookie says():This includes monitoring whether «the Kurdistan Regional Government» get a share of the proceeds, which are likely to be interpreted by Baghdad as a 17 per cent of the actual net revenue per month after deducting the huge expenses sovereign (and I mean that, for the affairs of defense and parliament and other federal institutions ).
However, in order to claim their share of the federal and packages international aid budget, should «Kurdistan Regional Government» to resume the transfer of 550 thousand barrels of oil a day to the Federal marketer of oil, as agreed in the budget. And then Satmah "International Monetary Fund" to Iraq to see that the cuts agreed between the two sides in the budget, nor does
Read More : http://ift.tt/1Zdkym5
rcookie says():it once you reach its objectives through the deduction of the share portion of the country, namely «the Kurdistan Regional Government», the spending plan.
In the context of oil prices and the levels of the Iraqi export the current, can «Kurdistan Regional Government» expect to get perhaps $ 350 million a month in exchange for the provision of 550 thousand barrels of oil per day, in addition to an additional $ 150 to $ 270 million a month in aid packages to Baghdad, "international Monetary Fund" and other institutions and countries such as Germany and Japan. Kurds also can grant some freedom to export any excess oil out of proportion adhered to, which amounts to 550 thousand barrels per day.
The net result could be better for the «Kurdistan Regional Government» from complete dependence on independent exports for the next period spanning two or three years.
Read More : http://ift.tt/1TWzJAw
rcookie says():Even better yet, this arrangement would be support from the international monitoring system, which is the first agreement of its kind for the Kurds since the United Nations gave them a share of 17 per cent of the oil-for-food revenues in the nineties.
In all likelihood, the main challenge will lie in to this kind of agreement reached in obtaining the approval of Baghdad. The central government has sought for years to prevent «the Kurdistan Regional Government» of oil export independently, but since 2014 I realized that bear the burden of «KRG» employees, who number 1.4 million employee is sincere drain the federal budget. Currently, Baghdad Taatbjaj economic distress were experienced by «the Kurdistan Regional Government»
Read More : http://ift.tt/1Zdkym5
rcookie says():which is worse than that of Baghdad itself only because the state was liquidating reserves at a rate that would Istnvdha in full within the next year or so if this process continues.
The Kurds returned to the revenue sharing process and give them a part of the international aid packages is not the option you prefer Baghdad, and that «the Kurdistan Regional Government» undergoing an internal political crisis strenuous that will make it difficult for the Kurdish leaders provide general concessions to Baghdad. Thus, there is a need for effective mediation.
Read More : http://ift.tt/1Zdkym5
rcookie says():Implications for US Policy
The United States should seize this opportunity to bridge the gap again between Baghdad and «Kurdistan Regional Government», and help them to reach a tentative agreement on a common economic policy for the oil sales and international assistance and customs issues.
With the US and international fixed mediation, the two sides have recognized the benefits to be Akzbanha in the middle of the road to re-integrate their economies, even if this merger temporarily. This in turn could encourage a broader cooperation in the long term.
Read More : http://ift.tt/1Zdkym5
rcookie says():The benefits are clear for «the Kurdistan Regional Government». International Mediation can help the region to get a fair share of imports, reserves and packs aid worth billions of dollars obtained by the federal government, while the terms "International Monetary Fund" and the process of its own monitoring may help officials «Kurdistan Regional Government» to fix the economy and restore confidence public revenues collapsed region and spend.
In addition, the presence of a better relationship with Baghdad can come back at the end of other benefits to Erbil, such as airspace control and get support quasi-sovereign loans.
Read More : http://ift.tt/1Zdkym5
rcookie says():As for the benefits to Baghdad, they are more accurate, but very convincing. Vtjdid efforts to resolve disputes with «the Kurdistan Regional Government» may intensify international support for immediate delivery of aid, "the International Monetary Fund," as well as other aid packages.
And it will put the issue of Kirkuk divisive force aside when international negotiations and control the parties to stop the fighting on the oil-rich region. These and other developments may also encourage Kurds to ask Turkey to withdraw its military base controversial in Bashiqa,
Read More : http://ift.tt/1Zdkym5
rcookie says():which is located near the Mosul area under the authority of «the Kurdistan Regional Government». For his part, can Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to rely on the cooperation of Kurdish commitment to the reform plans. In the long term, Baghdad may give assurance that Washington will consult with them always in the American Kurdish affairs.
Read More : http://ift.tt/1Zdkym5
rcookie says():The benefits to the United States are not considered less important, namely: to maintain the route of the Mosul attack, and ease the tension between the two main allies, and increase American influence in Baghdad and Erbil, the Kurds and the rescue of the economic collapse.
As is the case with respect to "plug connector", some additional efforts will now be much less costly than dealing with the situation after the disaster. Michael Knights The Washington Institute
http://ift.tt/1U3jksX
http://ift.tt/1QhqLGM
Read More : http://ift.tt/1Zdkym5
rcookie says():WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wyomingbill says():well as I said few weeks ago that oil would be in th$40.00 plus range by end of March , has reached $41.00 today I also still believe we will see $70.00 plus by end of year. Oil is controlled just like the stock market .also I believe Maliki will remain a problem for Iraq until he is taken out. Sorry just my feelings
clay says to Wyomingbill():GM :) clay says to Wyomingbill():appreciate them
wmawhite says to Wyomingbill():There is a document with three signatures on it, the IMF's, the GOI and the CBI outlining in detail the move of Iraq into Article 8 and the world's economic markets. No where in that document does it mention Maliki, where Maliki is living nor any thing about him. However, it is quit understandable to want to assign blame when we do not see something when we want to see it.
rcookie says():THEY ARE TALKNG ABOUT THE IMF SMP (STAFF MONITORED PROGRAM) THAT REQUIRES OVERSEEING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF OBLIGATIONS OF THE 2016 BUDGET...
ENSURING THE STATE CONDUCTING AGREED SAVINGS WITHOUT ACCUMULATING ADDITIONAL DOMESTIC OR FOREIGN ARREARS.....
rcookie says():MONITORING KURDISTAN RECEIVING SHARE OF PROCEEDS (175 ACTUAL NET REVENUE PER MONTH) AFTER DEDUCTING SOVEREIG EXPENSES (DEFENSE PARL...ETC...)
rcookie says():KURDS IN ORDER TO RECEIVE THEIR SHAE AND ANY INT'L AIS PACKAGE MONEY..MUST TRANSFER 550 THOUSAND BARRELS /DAY AS PER BUDGET....AND THEN IMF SEE TO IT THAT OTHER TERMS GET ACTED ON....
poppy3 says():well i AM NOT INTERESTED IN THEIR POLITIC'S , THEIR ECONOMY , THEIR RECOVERY, THEIR ISIS PROBLEM THAT DOESN'T ISIST, THEIR MILITARY LEADERS ETC ETC
I AM ONLY INTERESTED IN THEIR FINANCIAL REFORM PROGRESS. AND THE NEW VALUE BEING ACTIVATED ON THE GLOBAL MARKETS.
ALL THE OTHER JUNK IS JUST DISTRACTIONS THAT ARE 90% LIES .
THE REST DOESN'T MATTER AT ALL BECAUSE THEE IS NOT ONE THING WE CAN HAVE INFLUENCE ON.
WHAT YOU CAN DO IS RESEARCH WAYS TO LEGALLY PROTECT THE BLESSING WE WILL RECIEVE FROM THEIR FINANCIAL PROGRESS. POPPY3
rcookie says():THE ARRANGEMENT WOULD ALIGN WITH INT'L MONITORING SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD BE THE 1ST OF ITS KIND SINCE UN GRANTED 17% OF THE OIL FOR FOOD REVENUES IN THE 90'S....
sophie1 says to rcookie():love your information... thank you for taking your time to bring it in!!! much appreciated!!:-*
Woodywoodpecker says():yes thanks rcookie
It is likely that declining oil prices and unrest pipelines lead to keep yields at these low levels or even contraction over it (for example, did not report oil revenues in the past month, only $ 303 million due to pipeline problems). P «Kurdistan Regional Government» City already $ 25 billion of this debt will continue to increase by about $ 200 million a month if current oil prices stabilized. In the absence of many of the civil servants' salaries in four months, increasing the prospect of strikes and unrest and the accelerated pace of migration.
Read More : http://ift.tt/1Zdkym5
rcookie says():And oil prices unexpectedly did not rise from the current average of $ 40 to $ 60 at least per barrel, would continue «the Kurdistan Regional Government» delays in salary payments and the payment of debt obligations to domestic creditors and the international oil traders.
For its part, the current plan will provide the list to send aid to tens of millions of dollar «Kurdistan Regional Government» some economic comfort and keep the operational capacity of certain segments of the Peshmerga fighters.
However, this plan may not allow sufficient time to carry out reforms and the restoration of creditworthiness for «the Kurdistan Regional Government» and re-investment in infrastructure and to avoid instability.
Read More : http://ift.tt/1Zdkym5
rcookie says():Similarly, the modern investment for "the World Bank" in Iraq Cardstania element, such as improving roads, costing $ 255 million, which is funded federal projects and some small projects in the «Kurdistan region» plan.
Is currently being applied, "the observer program by the staff," prepared by the "International Monetary Fund" (a gesture smoothed arrangements backup fully funded), which involved overseeing the implementation by Iraq with the obligations of the budget and ensure that the state conducting the agreed savings without further accumulation of arrears to creditors local and international.
Read More : http://ift.tt/1Zdkym5
rcookie says():This includes monitoring whether «the Kurdistan Regional Government» get a share of the proceeds, which are likely to be interpreted by Baghdad as a 17 per cent of the actual net revenue per month after deducting the huge expenses sovereign (and I mean that, for the affairs of defense and parliament and other federal institutions ).
However, in order to claim their share of the federal and packages international aid budget, should «Kurdistan Regional Government» to resume the transfer of 550 thousand barrels of oil a day to the Federal marketer of oil, as agreed in the budget. And then Satmah "International Monetary Fund" to Iraq to see that the cuts agreed between the two sides in the budget, nor does
Read More : http://ift.tt/1Zdkym5
rcookie says():it once you reach its objectives through the deduction of the share portion of the country, namely «the Kurdistan Regional Government», the spending plan.
In the context of oil prices and the levels of the Iraqi export the current, can «Kurdistan Regional Government» expect to get perhaps $ 350 million a month in exchange for the provision of 550 thousand barrels of oil per day, in addition to an additional $ 150 to $ 270 million a month in aid packages to Baghdad, "international Monetary Fund" and other institutions and countries such as Germany and Japan. Kurds also can grant some freedom to export any excess oil out of proportion adhered to, which amounts to 550 thousand barrels per day.
The net result could be better for the «Kurdistan Regional Government» from complete dependence on independent exports for the next period spanning two or three years.
Read More : http://ift.tt/1TWzJAw
rcookie says():Even better yet, this arrangement would be support from the international monitoring system, which is the first agreement of its kind for the Kurds since the United Nations gave them a share of 17 per cent of the oil-for-food revenues in the nineties.
In all likelihood, the main challenge will lie in to this kind of agreement reached in obtaining the approval of Baghdad. The central government has sought for years to prevent «the Kurdistan Regional Government» of oil export independently, but since 2014 I realized that bear the burden of «KRG» employees, who number 1.4 million employee is sincere drain the federal budget. Currently, Baghdad Taatbjaj economic distress were experienced by «the Kurdistan Regional Government»
Read More : http://ift.tt/1Zdkym5
rcookie says():which is worse than that of Baghdad itself only because the state was liquidating reserves at a rate that would Istnvdha in full within the next year or so if this process continues.
The Kurds returned to the revenue sharing process and give them a part of the international aid packages is not the option you prefer Baghdad, and that «the Kurdistan Regional Government» undergoing an internal political crisis strenuous that will make it difficult for the Kurdish leaders provide general concessions to Baghdad. Thus, there is a need for effective mediation.
Read More : http://ift.tt/1Zdkym5
rcookie says():Implications for US Policy
The United States should seize this opportunity to bridge the gap again between Baghdad and «Kurdistan Regional Government», and help them to reach a tentative agreement on a common economic policy for the oil sales and international assistance and customs issues.
With the US and international fixed mediation, the two sides have recognized the benefits to be Akzbanha in the middle of the road to re-integrate their economies, even if this merger temporarily. This in turn could encourage a broader cooperation in the long term.
Read More : http://ift.tt/1Zdkym5
rcookie says():The benefits are clear for «the Kurdistan Regional Government». International Mediation can help the region to get a fair share of imports, reserves and packs aid worth billions of dollars obtained by the federal government, while the terms "International Monetary Fund" and the process of its own monitoring may help officials «Kurdistan Regional Government» to fix the economy and restore confidence public revenues collapsed region and spend.
In addition, the presence of a better relationship with Baghdad can come back at the end of other benefits to Erbil, such as airspace control and get support quasi-sovereign loans.
Read More : http://ift.tt/1Zdkym5
rcookie says():As for the benefits to Baghdad, they are more accurate, but very convincing. Vtjdid efforts to resolve disputes with «the Kurdistan Regional Government» may intensify international support for immediate delivery of aid, "the International Monetary Fund," as well as other aid packages.
And it will put the issue of Kirkuk divisive force aside when international negotiations and control the parties to stop the fighting on the oil-rich region. These and other developments may also encourage Kurds to ask Turkey to withdraw its military base controversial in Bashiqa,
Read More : http://ift.tt/1Zdkym5
rcookie says():which is located near the Mosul area under the authority of «the Kurdistan Regional Government». For his part, can Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to rely on the cooperation of Kurdish commitment to the reform plans. In the long term, Baghdad may give assurance that Washington will consult with them always in the American Kurdish affairs.
Read More : http://ift.tt/1Zdkym5
rcookie says():The benefits to the United States are not considered less important, namely: to maintain the route of the Mosul attack, and ease the tension between the two main allies, and increase American influence in Baghdad and Erbil, the Kurds and the rescue of the economic collapse.
As is the case with respect to "plug connector", some additional efforts will now be much less costly than dealing with the situation after the disaster. Michael Knights The Washington Institute
http://ift.tt/1U3jksX
http://ift.tt/1QhqLGM
Read More : http://ift.tt/1Zdkym5
rcookie says():WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wyomingbill says():well as I said few weeks ago that oil would be in th$40.00 plus range by end of March , has reached $41.00 today I also still believe we will see $70.00 plus by end of year. Oil is controlled just like the stock market .also I believe Maliki will remain a problem for Iraq until he is taken out. Sorry just my feelings
clay says to Wyomingbill():GM :) clay says to Wyomingbill():appreciate them
wmawhite says to Wyomingbill():There is a document with three signatures on it, the IMF's, the GOI and the CBI outlining in detail the move of Iraq into Article 8 and the world's economic markets. No where in that document does it mention Maliki, where Maliki is living nor any thing about him. However, it is quit understandable to want to assign blame when we do not see something when we want to see it.
rcookie says():THEY ARE TALKNG ABOUT THE IMF SMP (STAFF MONITORED PROGRAM) THAT REQUIRES OVERSEEING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF OBLIGATIONS OF THE 2016 BUDGET...
ENSURING THE STATE CONDUCTING AGREED SAVINGS WITHOUT ACCUMULATING ADDITIONAL DOMESTIC OR FOREIGN ARREARS.....
rcookie says():MONITORING KURDISTAN RECEIVING SHARE OF PROCEEDS (175 ACTUAL NET REVENUE PER MONTH) AFTER DEDUCTING SOVEREIG EXPENSES (DEFENSE PARL...ETC...)
rcookie says():KURDS IN ORDER TO RECEIVE THEIR SHAE AND ANY INT'L AIS PACKAGE MONEY..MUST TRANSFER 550 THOUSAND BARRELS /DAY AS PER BUDGET....AND THEN IMF SEE TO IT THAT OTHER TERMS GET ACTED ON....
poppy3 says():well i AM NOT INTERESTED IN THEIR POLITIC'S , THEIR ECONOMY , THEIR RECOVERY, THEIR ISIS PROBLEM THAT DOESN'T ISIST, THEIR MILITARY LEADERS ETC ETC
I AM ONLY INTERESTED IN THEIR FINANCIAL REFORM PROGRESS. AND THE NEW VALUE BEING ACTIVATED ON THE GLOBAL MARKETS.
ALL THE OTHER JUNK IS JUST DISTRACTIONS THAT ARE 90% LIES .
THE REST DOESN'T MATTER AT ALL BECAUSE THEE IS NOT ONE THING WE CAN HAVE INFLUENCE ON.
WHAT YOU CAN DO IS RESEARCH WAYS TO LEGALLY PROTECT THE BLESSING WE WILL RECIEVE FROM THEIR FINANCIAL PROGRESS. POPPY3
rcookie says():THE ARRANGEMENT WOULD ALIGN WITH INT'L MONITORING SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD BE THE 1ST OF ITS KIND SINCE UN GRANTED 17% OF THE OIL FOR FOOD REVENUES IN THE 90'S....
sophie1 says to rcookie():love your information... thank you for taking your time to bring it in!!! much appreciated!!:-*
Woodywoodpecker says():yes thanks rcookie
rcookie says():OUTLINE OF CRISIS AND CALL FOR MEDIATION.....
larrykn says to rcookie():the problem that bugs me is they must have known about all of this for a long time now, why didn't they try to work it out long before it got to this point
Woodywoodpecker says():I am interested in all they do because I want them to have a better life.
rcookie says():WOW WYOMING...MAYBE ALL THE OIL SECTOR EXPERTS SHOULD CALL YOU WHEN DEVRLOPING THEIR FORECASTS...
poppy3 says to wmawhite():DR WHITE , IS THE IMF STILL SAYING REFORM COMPLETE AND GLOBAL BY JUNE 15TH POPPY3
wmawhite says to poppy3():this statement was made at the end of October 2015........just prior to the Article 4 Consultation in Amman, Jordan that produced the Technical Letter of Agreement that is the most detailed document to date outlining Iraq's move into article 8 and the world's markets.
poppy3 says to wmawhite():YES, THAT HAS BEEN MY THOUGHTS THAT THEY SHOULD NEED A RATE SOME TIME PRIOR TO THE JUNE PUTTING US IN A GOOD POSITION TO SEE THE VALUE CHANGE PRIOR TO THAT. POPPY3
wmawhite says to poppy3():I also believe that the reforms of the GOI are a separate issue....not directly related to what we are looking for.
poppy3 says to wmawhite():I AGREE ANDALL THE OTHER IS JUST RETORIC THAT HAS ZIP FROM OUR TARGET. POPPY3
clay01 says():the IMF MOU or LOI staded there would be certain progress that needed to be done by certain time frames, ie, by end of February certain things would need to be done, has the IMF put out any new info as to the Progress Report that they see Iraq has made, to anyone
larrykn says to rcookie():the problem that bugs me is they must have known about all of this for a long time now, why didn't they try to work it out long before it got to this point
Woodywoodpecker says():I am interested in all they do because I want them to have a better life.
rcookie says():WOW WYOMING...MAYBE ALL THE OIL SECTOR EXPERTS SHOULD CALL YOU WHEN DEVRLOPING THEIR FORECASTS...
poppy3 says to wmawhite():DR WHITE , IS THE IMF STILL SAYING REFORM COMPLETE AND GLOBAL BY JUNE 15TH POPPY3
wmawhite says to poppy3():this statement was made at the end of October 2015........just prior to the Article 4 Consultation in Amman, Jordan that produced the Technical Letter of Agreement that is the most detailed document to date outlining Iraq's move into article 8 and the world's markets.
poppy3 says to wmawhite():YES, THAT HAS BEEN MY THOUGHTS THAT THEY SHOULD NEED A RATE SOME TIME PRIOR TO THE JUNE PUTTING US IN A GOOD POSITION TO SEE THE VALUE CHANGE PRIOR TO THAT. POPPY3
wmawhite says to poppy3():I also believe that the reforms of the GOI are a separate issue....not directly related to what we are looking for.
poppy3 says to wmawhite():I AGREE ANDALL THE OTHER IS JUST RETORIC THAT HAS ZIP FROM OUR TARGET. POPPY3
clay01 says():the IMF MOU or LOI staded there would be certain progress that needed to be done by certain time frames, ie, by end of February certain things would need to be done, has the IMF put out any new info as to the Progress Report that they see Iraq has made, to anyone
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