Backdoc, Thunderhawk & Mountainman Friday AM 3-25-16 Part 2

Part 2:

BACKDOC: EVENTUALLY WHEN ENOUGH DATA IS SIMPLY OVERWHELMING REALITY STARTS TO SET IN!  IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT REALITY WILL BEGIN TO BE CLEAR!
 
AS EARNINGS SHRINK, COMPANIES DOWNSIZE CAUSING MASSIVE LAYOFFS UNTIL THESE COMPANIES BECOME PROFITABLE ON A SMALLER SCALE!
 
COMPANIES ALSO BUY BACK THEIR STOCK SHARES TO DEFEND SHARE VALUE WHICH IS WHAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING NOW!
 
ONCE THAT ENDS THE SLIDE BEGINS TO GET STEEPER!   THIS IS WHERE WE ARE HEADED! MMMMM   DOC   IMO
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Mountainman:  the Monetary Prize....LOL.....for The ROTHSCHILDS Already have Determined "This YEAR" to be Terrible for Investments....We Already saw What RESTRUCTURING "They" are Making On their Portfolios......and Since "THEY" CONTROL the Markets and Much of Global Policies.....Indirectly/Directly that is.....We are in for A {BOOM of GLOOM}......You can Go to the Bank on this One.....IMO

 BTW......The Jobs Numbers .......have been Manipulated All thru this Presidency.....So The TRUE REALITIES are probably Worse than Reported.....IMO
Do You Think these Bankers will "BANK" their Lively Hood On said Reports w/Out the TRUE Ones???

Naphtali:  Listening to the talking heads on Financial TV this afternoon..... they "seasonally adjusted" numbers, and the numbers are being "re-evaluated". 
So my question: What does this mean? 

The numbers didn't add up the way we would like to see for strong economic growth, job creation, etc. etc.  so they "adjust"???

I looked to see if there is a standard formula and SURPRISE.... I couldn't find one.

Thunderhawk:  Declining Earnings, Labor Productivity Signal US Recession Ahead

A recession in the US economy is around the corner, as macro indicators suggest an ongoing slowdown, while the corporate sector is suffering net losses and labor productivity is tanking due to an abundance of useless jobs.

As the US gears up for the Easter holidays, the government is set to announce its revised GDP figures for Q4 2015 early on Friday. Even though the report is expected to confirm growth figures at an annualized 1% rate, the anticipated government data are stirring a US recession debate once again.

The US financial sector and markets are expecting an economic downturn this year, while certain contrarian analysts disagree, suggesting recession expectations are an exaggeration of the existing negative tendencies. The ongoing carnage in corporate earnings and a massive decline in labor productivity are the main factors indicating the likelihood that a recession might commence soon.

Friday's report, along with Q4 GDP figures, will also contain data on the dynamics in US corporate earnings for the same period, and the current forecast is rather grim, suggesting the corporate sector might indeed have had two consecutive quarters of declining profits, which historically suggest a recession arriving within one year.

However, there are usually many factors that coincide to bring about an unfortunate set of events which ultimately result in a recession, and a slowdown in GDP growth is merely one of those.

"Economic indicators this week may show the US economy experienced a mild slowdown but it is not headed for a recession," Richard Turnill of BlackRock Inc., the world's biggest wealth manager, said.

According to the existing data, the decline in US corporate earnings started in Q3 2015, with annualized net losses of 5.1%, after having gained barely 0.5% in Q2 and 4.5% in Q1 2015. In Q4, pre-tax profits are expected to have fallen 9.5% compared to a year earlier, meaning extended losses for America's economy.

The main reason the US enterprises have been suffering losses throughout the second half of 2015 is their significant exposure to international markets, stemming from their extensive global presence.

Given unfavorable economic conditions in emerging markets, volatility in Europe over staggering growth and Grexit fears in mid-2015, Japan's persistent disinflation and China's factory-gate glut, the situation worldwide turned out to be a shock for American companies when the dollar started to appreciate dramatically due to the Federal Reserve's tightening measures.

"Usually the US economy goes into a downturn about a year or two years after the Fed begins tightening aggressively," Douglas Porter of BMO Capital Markets said.
All that means, not only in Q4 2015, but in Q1 this year as well, that US corporate earnings have likely been decimated, resulting in presumably three consecutive quarters of net losses, and almost guaranteeing that a recession is coming.

Thus far, however, all eyes are set on Q4 figures, with JP Morgan Chase & Co. expecting corporate losses to have been deepened, and putting a 50% chance of a recession starting in the US in 2016-17, along with a 60% chance of a recession happening in 2016-2018.

The US government's efforts over the past several years, which have been aimed at generating jobs the expense of taxpayers via the subsidization of industries and the pumping of money into the real economy, yielded quite controversial results. On the one hand, the US joblessness rate stands at 4.9%, indicating ‘full employment', and wages are growing steadily.

On the other, private sector capital was largely wiped out of the real economy as private investment could not compete, as it is the government's last concern whether the money allocation would be profitable or not. Besides, optimistic Labor Department employment figures hardly provide a clue regarding the underemployed or those not seeking a job.
According to different estimates, 13% to 21.5% Americans of working age do not actually work, for various reasons.

Job market developments also provide another clue that the US is due for a recession. Labor productivity is extraordinarily low, mainly because government-created jobs are uncompetitive and unnecessary in the open market conditions, and people employed at these jobs are earning more than they produce.

In 2001-2005, now perceived as the most recent ‘golden age' of the US economy, labor productivity growth stood at 3.1%, dropping to 2.0% in 2006-2010 (bear in mind the long and painful crisis of 2007-2009), and declining further to 0.4% in 2011-2015.
"With wages picking up but productivity growing in slow motion, margins are likely to continue their declines, which have historically signaled an expansion is near its end," JPMorgan analysts wrote.

Meanwhile, the current economic policies suggest the US is not ready for a recession. While abundant government-funded programs, like food stamps and other social benefits, might keep incomes from falling dramatically amidst declining economic activity, these would not be enough to support consumption at its existing levels should the corporate sector be tanking. US consumers are driving some 72% of the US economy.

Declining productivity might eventually result in ‘full employment' weighing on economic growth, triggering massive layoffs along with budget cuts, while the bleeding corporate sector would not be much help at that point.

The US economy has historically entered a recession about once every decade, and even though the current numbers suggest only a slowdown, the situation requires a major adjustment in the US economic model, which is excessively reliant on fiscal stimulus and still low base interest rates.

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BACKDOC:   AFTER READING THESE TPP ARTICLES IT LOOKS LIKE AN ADVERTISEMENT! HEE  HEE

IT LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE TRYING VERY HARD TO SELL IT WITHOUT REALLY ADMITTING THE REALITY OF THE FACTS!

TPP LOOKS TO SPREAD THE WEALTH AROUND THE GLOBE!   ITS NOT NECESSARILY WHAT IS BEST FOR ANY PARTICULAR COUNTRY.DOC  IMO

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Mountainman:  So the ???......."Since Kiyosaki Knew....or at Least Figured it Out!!!....... and With What We are Teaching regarding these BANKING DYNASTIES/FAMILIES......Honestly Ask Yourself......??? Do I BELIEVE these CRASHES/Recessions are In "THEIR" Sole CONTROL???......I believe that the EVIDENCE is Overwhelmingly
 
Objective and Obvious.....Once We begin to Analyze the Facts on their HISTORY......Which takes Time to Absorb and Retain etc.....So this is My HOPE for ALL here and those Who will NEED You......WHY???.....because they won't Understand What's Going On etc...w/ this NEW and {FUTURE} REALITIES......for "THEY" Will (NOT)
 
STOP......Until YAWEH Judges "THEM"......So Like the Gospel......As You Learn share What You Know...... for Future GENERATIONS and their CHILDREN Need the {TRUTH}.......Otherwise "THEY" Win in The Temporary
Time Frame......and The DECEPTION over the Masses is "RECYCLED".....IMO
 
As a Refresher here is the Link and Reality of What "THEY" Planned Out and Executed in The GREAT DEPRESSION......August 8,1927.......Two Years Prior to The Crash of 1929.....
 
This Brought Forward...Past Post.......MM
 
I'm NOT Doc Obviously...LOL......IMO.... It LOOKS to me Like OIL and OTHER INSTRUMENTS are being used to BANKRUPT GLOBAL MARKETS....??? is WHO has the MOST to gain if THEY BUY IT UP at ROCK BOTTOM PRICES....PRIVATIZE IT=CONTROL IT and THE NEW RULES for THE NEW GLOBAL PARADIGM SHIFT....?????....Well I can Think of 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12!!!........HE WHO HOLDS THE GOLD MAKES THE RULES......
 
.....Another ??? Have THEY done this Before in Our HISTORY.....?????= YES= 2 Years before the GREAT DEPRESSION=AUGUST 8, 1927.....http://ift.tt/1UW7G0N .......In search engine Type in United States of America.....Next page Click on Highlighted blue=United States of America....and You will SEE What Date I Just Gave You!!!.....Yah WHAT"S REALLY GOING ON!!! IMO
 
Blessings,Mountainman........(8)=New Beginnings 
  
Thunderhawk:  Backdoc Alert......What have We Learned from Past Patterns???.....MM

‘Rich Dad’ author says the 2016 market collapse he foresaw in 2002 is coming

Fourteen years ago, the author of a series of popular personal-finance books predicted that 2016 would bring about the worst market crash in history, damaging the financial dreams of millions of baby boomers just as they started to depend on that money to fund retirement.

Broader U.S. stock markets are recovering from the worst 10-day start to a year on record. But Robert Kiyosaki — who made that 2016 forecast in the 2002 book “Rich Dad’s
Prophecy” — says the meltdown is under way, and there’s little investors can do but buy gold or silverand hope the Federal Reserve slows the slide.

Kiyosaki is convinced: The pullback he predicted is happening.

“We’re right on schedule,” he said in a recent interview with MarketWatch.
A market destined to collapse

Investors are seven years into a bull market some fear is getting a bit long in the tooth, with the Dow industrials DJIA,-0.28%  and the S&P 500 SPX, -0.35%SPX, -0.35% up 0.9% and 0.3%, in 2016. That’s after 2015 saw major U.S. indexes snap multiyear winning streaks amid falling commodity prices, concerns about economic growth, and the Federal Reserve’s December decision to raise interest rates.

In 2002, Kiyosaki wrote that the stock market would crash in 2016 as the first wave of baby boomers began to hit 70 1/2 in 2016 and started taking required-by-law distributions from traditional individual retirement accounts.

He still believes that: “Demography is destiny,” he said in the interview.

According to U.S. Census Bureau data, more than 76 million individuals were born between 1946 and 1964; researchers at the Population Reference Bureau determined in 2014 that 65 million of them were still living. After immigrants are added in, according to that 2014 report, the number of living U.S. baby boomers was back above 76 million.
 
A market meltdown could imperil those boomers’ retirement plans, taking a badly timed bite out of hard-earned balances in their retirement accounts. And while the sheer number of aging boomers could contribute to stock-market selling pressure, Kiyosaki said, the larger issue today is that it’s hard for investors to figure out where to put money.
 
“Interest income or cash flow on savings is virtually nonexistent, and capital-gains plays in the stock market are thwarted because stock prices are at record highs,” he said.
 
Whatever burden millions of boomers might put on the market, he said, the situation is being made worse by events overseas, where one big country is wielding the monkey wrench.
 
“China has been in a bubble for 20-something years,” said Kiyosaki. “It has propped up the U.S. economy falsely. When [China] stops importing, the world crashes with them.”
Down the China rabbit hole
 
First to go, Kiyosaki said, will be commodity producers like Australia, Canada and African countries, which will drag down the rest of the world’s economies.
 
The collapse in oil prices has been particularly tough for economies such as Australia’s. The S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -1.13%down 14% over a 12-month period, suffered its first annual decline in four years last year. The Shanghai CompositeSHCOMP, -1.63% meanwhile, has cratered, sliding nearly 15% in three months after earning the title of Asia’s best-performing stock market in 2015 with a gain above 9%.
 
Market watchers are largely divided about the outlook for China, though every piece of negative data raises new questions about the country’s ability to drive global economic growth. Recent data showed Chinese exports down 25.4% from a year earlier; economists had forecast a drop of 15%. It was the eighth consecutive decline in exports.
 
Read: China may swap ‘zombie’ companies for ‘zombie’ banks
 
Kiyosaki is hardly alone in his bearish view: The “high” probability of a “sharp economic slowdown“ in China was cited in mid-March as a top global risk by theEconomist Intelligence Unit. Its concerns included a buildup of bad debt in the country, a weak currency and worries that the government may not be able to shore up its economy.
 
And ballooning government debt was a key reason Moody’s Investors Service cut its outlook on China’s credit rating in March, also citing money fleeing the country.
 
Kiyosaki, who has written or co-written more than two dozen books — including New York Times best seller “Rich Dad Poor Dad” — has built a fortune mostly on real estate and authorship, rather than the stock market. (His licensing company, Rich Global LLC, has filed for bankruptcy and is being sued by a seminar promoter in connection with that filing. A spokesman said Kiyosaki “has the money to withstand an adverse ruling” and expects the case to be settled this year.)
 
Forbes estimated Kiyosaki’s worth at $80 million in 2012, a figure he declined to address.
 
But from the outside looking in, he said, investors are ignoring danger signs. The next crash, he said, could have a harsher effect on the economy than the market crashes that have occurred so far in the 21st century.
 
Those crashes included the market rout that ended the dot-com boom in 2000, which erased $5 trillion in market value between March 2000 and October 2002, and the financial crisis of 2007-08, which inspired both a market collapse and a real estate bust. Better Markets, a nonprofit pro-financial-reform watchdog, has estimated that the final price tag for the 2007-08 crash will exceed $20 trillion in lost gross domestic product.

Kiyosaki said two key factors have emerged since he wrote “Rich Dad’s Prophecy”: the likelihood of a bust in China and the “insanity” of quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve’s controversial multibillion-dollar bond-buying program, which ended in 2014 amid criticism that it had increased demand for risky investments even as supporters said it sustained economic growth.

Opinion: China’s banks could be the next big problem

Meanwhile, China has been throwing money at its banks to keep lending going, and debt quality at financial institutions is a constant theme among worried onlookers. Kiyosaki said he is in the camp that fears Chinese banks will be at the forefront of the next crash.
Waiting for the Fed’s fire hose

Kiyosaki told MarketWatch that the combination of demographics and global economic weakness makes the next crash inevitable — but the Fed could stave it off with another round of quantitative easing, which might stimulate the economy.

The Fed turned more dovish at its March meeting, with the central bank penciling in fewer interest-rate hikes this year than were previously part of its implied framework. The Fed signaled those hikes would happen more slowly than had been anticipated earlier, owing to a weak global economic environment and a volatile stock market.

“The big question [whether] we do ‘QE4,’” said Kiyosaki. “If we do, the stock market will come roaring back, but it’s not rocket science. If we stop printing money, it crashes; if we print money, it goes up. But, eventually, it’s all going to come down.”

For baby boomers beginning to withdraw funds from the stock market, he said, another round of quantitative easing, or QE, might be a particularly welcome occurrence.

If Janet Yellen “even hints” about such fresh stimulus, Kiyosaki said, he’d be ready to go back into he stock market himself, if only for a short time. Money left in the bank in an ultra-low-rate environment — a big topic as central banks in Japan and the European Union have bitten the negative-rate bullet — returns nothing for savers, he noted.

And for the Fed another round of quantitative easing “could be the last time they pull this stunt,” in Kiyosaki’s view. “The markets might rally, then crash.”

Opinion: Don’t rule out the possibility of Fed quantitative easing (part four)

Because preparing for that coming storm is vital, Kiyosaki often invokes investors to “build a financial ark.”

He thinks investors should own some gold or silver, based on the view that central banks will just have to print money to get out of the next crisis and precious metals are often deployed as a perceived hedge against inflation. Some investors, meanwhile, might look for investments geared toward income, such as rent payments or dividends, rather than appreciation.

“If you know what you’re doing and are investing for cash flow, baby boomers — or any investors — may see some gains,” he said. “But for those whose wealth is tied up in the [equity] markets, it’s more like gambling than investing.”

http://www.marketwatch

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BACKDOC:  INTERESTING THAT A DEAL COULD BE REACHED IN GREECE BY APRIL 11.   APRIL 15TH THE FED WILL MEET AS WELL.  LETS SEE IF WE HAVE ANYMORE DATES THAT BEGIN TO BE CLOSE TO THE MID APRIL TIMELINE?

Hoot:  backdoc what about the un exchange rate postings on the 13th to be active on the 15th of each month

BACKDOC:  EXCELLENT!  ANOTHER POSSIBLE DOT TO TRACE ALONG OUR JOURNEY!   WE WILL KEEP WATCHING TO SEE IF ANYTHING BEGINS TO COME TOGETHER!

Thunderhawk:  Greek Finance Ministry official fiercely attacks IMF

The Greek Finance Ministry launched yet another attack on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday over its demands in the country’s bailout program review.
 
General Secretary of Fiscal Policy, Franciscos Koutentakis accused the IMF of timewasting in the bailout review negotiations which now continue at technical level before top-tier officials representing Greece’s creditor institutions return to Athens for more talks early April.
 
“All institutions, but particularly the IMF, are to blame for the continued uncertainty dogging Greece’s economy,” Koutentakis said.
 
“It seems that they want to see you at the edge of a cliff before they start negotiating seriously,” he said, adding that the IMF’s assumptions “are based on ideological obsessions and inaccuracies.”
 
Government sources suggested earlier this week that an agreement on the conclusion of the first review is close as there is much convergence on taxation and pension reform as well as on measures to bridge a fiscal gap this year.
 
However, Koutentakis lashed out against the Fund, stressing that its “drip-by-drip tranche tactics are Shylock behavior”.
 
We keep telling them that uncertainty costs the real economy dearly, but they pretend they do not understand and issue recommendations about which expenditures we should cut,” he stated, adding that if there is a dilemma between paying pensions and defaulting Greece would choose the former.
 
Meanwhile, data showed on Wednesday that the economy has been making progress of late. A primary surplus of almost 3.04 billion euros was recorded in the first two months of the year, according to figures released by the Finance Ministry. The dividend from the Bank of Greece, the increased inflow of resources from the European Union and cuts in State expenditure pushed the primary budget surplus above expectations.
 
According to analysts, the recent attacks launched by Greek government officials on the IMF are part of the government’s attempt to flag the difficult fight it is putting up against tough demands. It is also considered a way to take advantage of the differences between the IMF and European creditor institutions so that debt relief could be granted to the country in coming months.
 
The heads of the institutions are expected to return to Athens on April 2 and aim to reach an agreement by April 11, when finance ministry officials are set to meet.
 
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BACKDOC: EVENTUALLY THESE STATS WILL START TO BE RELEVANT WHEN ADDITIONAL STATS START TO SHOW A PATTERN!

WITH MARKETS IN DEFLATION WORLDWIDE NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES ARE BEING QUESTIONED AS EVEN EFFECTIVE!  THE CENTRAL BANKS ARE RUNNING OUT OF TOOLS IN THEIR TOOL BOX TO DEAL WITH THE CRISIS.  HOW MUCH TIME THEY HAVE BEFORE THINGS UNWIND IS CERTAINLY IN QUESTION!

Thunderhawk:  Backdoc Alert

Manufacturers on backfoot: Durable-goods orders fall for third time in four months

U.S. orders for long-lasting or durable goods fell 2.8% in February — the third drop in four months — as every major industrial sector except for autos showed declines.
Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a seasonally adjusted 2.9% decline last month, but the details of the report show widespread weakness that underscores why the economy has slowed since last fall.

A strong dollar, weak global economy and nosedive in the U.S. energy sector have dented demand for American manufactured goods. And there’s little reason to expect a big rebound anytime soon.

“Manufacturers continue to slide along the knife edge,” said Michael Montgomery, U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight.

Automakers were the lone standout in February. Orders rose 1.2%, reflecting strong sales of new cars and trucks.

Booking for new airlines, however, dove 27% in what is a typically weak month for Boeing. The giant aircraft maker only received two orders last month, the fewest in 14 months.
Stripping out transportation, durable-goods orders slipped a smaller 1%. The decline stemmed mostly from a cutback in demand for large military-related products such as fighter jets.

Still, orders also fell for industrial metals, fabricated-metal parts, computers and electrical equipment.

Orders for core capital goods, viewed as a proxy for business investment, slumped 1.8% to mark the second decline in three months.

Core orders fell 2.3% from December through February, though a pair of manufacturing surveys in New York state and the Philadelphia region suggest improved business conditions in March.

Shipments of core capital goods, a category used to help determine quarterly economic growth, dipped 1.1% in February after a revised 1.3% decline in January . The drop in shipments is likely to weigh on GDP.

The increase in durable-goods orders in January, meanwhile, was revised down to 4.2% from 4.9%.

In a separate economic report, the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in the mid-March was little changed at 265,000, reflecting the low level of layoffs taking place across the economy.

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