KTFA:
Thunderhawk: QUESTION - OK so why is china stockpiling oil???? MMMM anyone???
Mountainman: Perhaps....{PREPARING} for Their ENTRANCE to the SDR Basket "WHERE".......A NEW VALUE Will be Found......???...IMO
Blessings,Mountainman (8)=New Beginnings.........For CHINA and MANY More.......
BACKDOC: WELL THUNDER, IF YOU KNEW THAT THE WORLD WAS ABOUT TO FIGURE OUT THAT THE DOLLAR WAS NO LONGER PEGGED TO THE DOLLAR ANYMORE AND OIL WAS GOING TO COST YOU A LOT MORE IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE WHAT WOULD YOU DO? THAT'S RIGHT BUY, BUY, BUY!
YOU SEE THERE IS A VALUE CHANGE COMING AND IT WILL COST CHINA MUCH MORE LATER THAN IT DOES NOW FOR ITS OIL!
THE PROCESS OF CHANGE WILL BEGIN IMO LATER THIS WEEK IF A RATE FOR ALL THE EMERGING COUNTRIES LAUNCH THEIR RATES!
WITH EVERYONE READY ITS SIMPLY ONLY A QUESTION OF TIMING NOW!
THERE IS A VALUE CHANGE COMING GET READY! DOC
....
Thunderhawk: QUESTION - OK so why is china stockpiling oil???? MMMM anyone???
Mountainman: Perhaps....{PREPARING} for Their ENTRANCE to the SDR Basket "WHERE".......A NEW VALUE Will be Found......???...IMO
Blessings,Mountainman (8)=New Beginnings.........For CHINA and MANY More.......
BACKDOC: WELL THUNDER, IF YOU KNEW THAT THE WORLD WAS ABOUT TO FIGURE OUT THAT THE DOLLAR WAS NO LONGER PEGGED TO THE DOLLAR ANYMORE AND OIL WAS GOING TO COST YOU A LOT MORE IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE WHAT WOULD YOU DO? THAT'S RIGHT BUY, BUY, BUY!
YOU SEE THERE IS A VALUE CHANGE COMING AND IT WILL COST CHINA MUCH MORE LATER THAN IT DOES NOW FOR ITS OIL!
THE PROCESS OF CHANGE WILL BEGIN IMO LATER THIS WEEK IF A RATE FOR ALL THE EMERGING COUNTRIES LAUNCH THEIR RATES!
WITH EVERYONE READY ITS SIMPLY ONLY A QUESTION OF TIMING NOW!
THERE IS A VALUE CHANGE COMING GET READY! DOC
....
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
Crude Oil Tankers Bound For China Surge Amid Stockpiling Signals
China, the world’s second-biggest crude consumer, may be poised for another increase in imports after the number of supertankers bound for the Asian country’s ports rose to a 16-month high amid signs it’s stockpiling.
There were 83 headed to China, the most since December 2014, according to a ship-tracking snapshot compiled by Bloomberg on Friday. Assuming standard cargo sizes, they would be able to deliver about 166 million barrels.
China is hoarding crude at the fastest pace in at least a decade, filling inventories at a time when oil futures remain about 60 percent below where they were just two years ago. The nation added 787,000 barrels a day to stockpiles in the first quarter, the most for the period since at least 2004 when Bloomberg started calculations based on customs data. Its imports climbed in March from countries including Iran, Venezuela and Brazil. Read More At:
http://ift.tt/1MRJn5w
************
Mountainman: Yikes......CHINA.......The Domino that STARTS the FALL of the REMAINING DOMINOS........The IMF had Keyword{TRANSITION}.......In Many GLOBAL ARTICLES.....and NOW we See the NEW REALITIES becoming MORE TRANSPARENT........LOOK Out (BELOW)......SHEESH.....IMO Blessings,Mountainman (8)=New Beginnings
BACKDOC: THERE'S NO SURPRISE TO CHINA'S DEBT AS I HAVE TAUGHT YOU WELL BY NOW BUT MY THOUGHT TONIGHT FOR YOU IS THAT WE WILL SEE THE VALUE CHANGE COME FROME THE EAST AND MOVE TO THE WEST!
YES WE EXPECT A RATE SOON BUT YOU BETTER KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING ONCE ITS HERE BECAUSE THERE IS DANGER AHEAD! I'M STAYING IN ASSET BACKED ASSETS UNTIL THE TRANSITION IS COMPLETE. DON'T EXPECT THAT TILL JANUARY!
FOR NOW I WILL ELIMINATE ALL DOLLAR DEBT AND ONLY TRANSITION TO DOLLARS WHAT I CAN SPEND THAT WILL BE SECURITIZED LIKE LAND, ASSET BACKED BONDS IF AVAILABLE, METALS WILL BE GOOD BUT WILL LIKELY DROP IN COMPARISON TO THE EMERGING COUNTRIES CURRENCIES, AND BY ALL MEANS NOT FIAT TREASURY BONDS (OUCH),!
JUST MY THOUGHTS AND NOT INTENDED FOR ADVICE! DOC IMO
Thunderhawk: China debt load reaches record high as risk to economy mounts
China’s total debt rose to a record 237 percent of gross domestic product in the first quarter, far above emerging-market counterparts, raising the risk of a financial crisis or a prolonged slowdown in growth, economists warn.
Beijing has turned to massive lending to boost economic growth, bringing total net debt to Rmb163 trillion ($25 trillion) at the end of March, including both domestic and foreign borrowing, according to Financial Times calculations.
Such levels of debt are much higher as a proportion of national income than in other developing economies, although they are comparable to levels in the U.S. and the eurozone.
While the absolute size of China’s debt load is a concern, more worrying is the speed at which it has accumulated — Chinese debt was only 148 percent of GDP at the end of 2007.
“Every major country with a rapid increase in debt has experienced either a financial crisis or a prolonged slowdown in GDP growth,” Ha Jiming, Goldman Sachs chief investment strategist, wrote in a report this year.
The country’s present level of debt, and its increasing links to global financial markets, partly informed the International Monetary Fund’s recent warning that China poses a growing risk to advanced economies. Read more at:
http://ift.tt/1UaujkJ
************
Mountainman: ANYONE Play GLOBAL MARKET PINBALL Lately???......Yah Me Neither.....However this ALL POINTS BULLETIN, tells the BIG STORY for WALL STREET and MAIN STREET......GLOBALLY Speaking that is......Let the MARKET TURMOIL Begin.....TOWARDS A NEW REALITY W/In.......IMO
Blessings,Mountainman (8)=New Beginnings
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
This could bring on the volatility in the week ahead
Apple, Facebook, ExxonMobil and dozens of other major companies report earnings in the week ahead, but central banks could bring on the volatility.
There is also a heavy schedule of economic reports in the coming week, including first quarter GDP on Thursday. Economists expect a barely positive number, and most forecasts are looking at growth under 1 percent. There are also durable goods Tuesday, international trade Wednesday and personal income and spending for March on Friday.
Oil inventory data from American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday afternoon and the Energy Department Wednesday morning will also be watched, as all markets are keeping an eye on oil prices. Brent was up almost 5 percent for the week to just above $45 a barrel, and the S&P energy sector was the best performer for the week — up 5 percent. The jump in oil prices surprised traders who were looking for a sell-off after producing nations failed to reach a deal to freeze production last weekend.
Stocks were higher in the past week, with the S&P 500 at 2,091.58, up 0.52 percent. The Dow was up 1.4. Stock strategists are looking for a breakout to the upside, even as yields look set to move higher.
In the coming week, the Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and it is widely expected to take no action on rates, while sticking to its message that a rate hike isn't imminent.
"I think they will try their darndest to avoid any kind of policy change in their language," said Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock's chief investment strategist for fixed income.
But then there's the Bank of Japan, which meets Thursday. "There's greater uncertainty with regard to what Japan is going to do," said Rosenberg. "I think the bigger question is whether it will have any impact." The last time the bank took action, it announced negative yields. As if in defiance, the yen ripped higher, and the negative yields ignited market fears that the program would be negative for banks.
There's speculation the BOJ could announce more asset purchases and take steps to apply negative rates to bank loans. "That is the potential risk. That would be viewed as them trying to fine tune the negative rate story so it actually helps the banking system," said George Goncalves, head of rate strategy at Nomura. He said the purchases most likely will be of more Japanese equity ETFs.
"I think it's all about what they're trying to achieve and can they do it. Even if it doesn't work long term, will it cause a market reaction? We have to be prepared for it. I think the Bank of Japan will give it a go next week, and it will be more important than the Fed," said Goncalves. "If the Fed can give a lukewarm hawkish message, and they get it right, that will keep the dollar from rallying and push long-term rates higher while pushing back hiking expectations a little more." He explained in a "lukewarm hawkish" message the Fed would appear to be intentionally holding off on rate hikes even though conditions have improved since its last meeting.
Goncalves said if the Fed is then followed by a dovish BOJ, that could push the 10-year yield closer to 2 percent. The yield on the 10-year was at 1.88 percent Friday, well above the 1.75 percent the week earlier.
Rosenberg said the markets are reversing the flight to quality trade from earlier in the year.
"I think we've had a rebound off of the beginning-of-year global concerns," said Rosenberg. "It's notable that both the Fed and the ECB (European Central Bank) cited the global concerns when describing the impacts on their policy rather than developments in their domestic economies. … It's really about relieving some of those risks."
Rosenberg said he believes the turn in the market came when oil and commodities reversed course in February. A big factor was China, when it took steps in mid-February to soothe concerns about a significant yuan devaluation. The Fed also played a role, changing its forecast from four rate hikes this year to two, and taking pressure off the dollar.
"The Fed changed its message on its pace of normalization in March. The market started to anticipate that in February, but they made good on it in March. That was important," he said. Rosenberg said the risks are still there but they've moved to the background for now.
Rosenberg said China effectively calmed global fears when it emphasized policy to bring stabilization, using its traditional lever of credit growth to encourage production in real estate and infrastructure.
China was a key concern of the Fed, as it had been for the markets during the sell-off in January and February. Traders are now watching corporate earnings to see if there are any signs of change coming on that front. Caterpillar's CEO Doug Oberhelman said he believes his business is bottoming and he hopes 2016 will be the last down year.
"We've seen actually an adjustment upwards in China in the first quarter, which is kind of nice. It's the first time we've talked about that in a couple [or] three years," he told CNBC. He said China is stimulating and it is showing up in some large products. "Hopefully that will be sustained; something they do throughout the rest of the year."
But even with the stock market's gains, individual issues took a beating if they were the bearer of disappointing earnings news. High-profile misses have been seen, particularly in tech where Alphabet, IMB and Microsoft all disappointed.
But there is also a view that the worst is over for the corporate profit recession.
"This will be the fourth quarter of no earnings growth, but this is the call, truly, that this is the end of that. It may be the case where this started in the second quarter of last year, so year over year the second quarter is going to show earnings growth. That will be a very important signal," said Art Hogan, market strategist at Wunderlich Securities. "The guidance as a whole has been a lot less about pointing to the dollar and plunging oil prices."
Apple's earnings will be another test this week, since so many tech names have disappointed. But Scott Wren, senior equities strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, does not expect it to make a difference to the market.
"That's not going to be anything that's going to throw off the entire earnings season, if it misses or gets a positive boost if it beats. Overall, this earnings season is like the last eight earnings seasons," Wren said. "All it does is confirm we're in a very modest growth, modest inflation environment. Clearly the market is looking way beyond the first quarter."
Wren, like others, expects the S&P to take out its 2,134 high. "We'll grind higher and test that 2,134 intraday high, but I would not think we make it through the first time or even the first couple of times. I think the market wants to go up, but we've come a long way. There's definitely a bid to the market."
What to Watch
Monday
Earnings: Halliburton, Xerox, First Data, KKR, Crane, Ethan Allen, The Container Store, Express Scripts, Canadian National Railway, Pioneer Natural Resources, Zions Bancorporation
10 a.m. New home sales
Tuesday
Federal Open Market Committee begins two-day meeting.
Earnings: Apple, 3M, DuPont, BP, AT&T, Fiat Chrysler, Procter & Gamble, Coach, Eli Lilly, Hershey, Martin Marietta Materials, Ingersoll Rand, Corning, Entergy, Whirlpool, T. Rowe Price, Lockheed Martin, JetBlue
8:30 a.m. Durable goods
9 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller
9:45 a.m. Services PMI
10 a.m. Consumer confidence
1 p.m. $26 billion two-year note auction
Wednesday
Earnings: Facebook, Boeing, GlaxoSmithKline, United Technologies, Total, Mondelez, General Dynamics, Dr Pepper Snapple, Boston Scientific, Comcast, Baker Hughes, Anthem, Nasdaq OMX, Hess, International Paper, Southern Company, Northrop Grumman, Goodyear Tire, Marriott
8:30 a.m. International trade
10 a.m. Pending home sales
1 p.m. $34 billion five-year note auction
2 p.m. FOMC statement
Thursday
Earnings: Amazon.com, Viacom, Amgen, Gilead, ConocoPhillips, Deutsche Bank, Colgate-Palmolive, Bristol-Myers Squibb, MasterCard, Altria, Ford, Dow Chemical, Celgene, Air Products, Aetna, UPS, Eaton, Beazer Homes, Marathon Petroleum, Potash
8:30 a.m. Initial claims; real GDP Q1
10 a.m. Housing vacancies
1 p.m. $28 billion seven-year note auction
Friday
Earnings: ExxonMobil, Chevron, AstraZeneca, Eaton, VF Corp, Cabot Oil, Calpine, Moody's, American Tower, Tyco, Phillips 66
6:30 a.m. Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan
8:30 a.m. Personal income; employment cost index
9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI
10 a.m. Consumer sentiment
http://ift.tt/1VNlsXt
************
Mountainman: OUCH......Many In this {TRANSITION} Will be HIT HARD w/FIAT REALITIES......BONDS......and Much More.....It is A STORM that Has Been On the HORIZON for Some TIME Now......and Here it is {ARISING} w/MULTIPLE FRONTS In it's PATH.....And MANY MORE {BEHIND} As Well.......IMO Blessings, Mountainman (8)=New Beginnings
BACKDOC: OK AL, LET ME ASK YOU A QUESTION. ONCE YOU HAVE YOU RATE AND CAN SWAP YOUR CURRENCY FOR DOLLARS, WOULD IT MATTER TO YOU IF YOUR DOLLARS LOST HALF OR MORE OF ITS INTERNATIONAL PURCHASING POWER AFTER YOU EXCHANGED IT TO DOLLARS? MMMM
I GUESS IF IT MATTERS TO YOU THEN TRY TO CONSIDER WHY AND WHAT WE TEACH YOU ABOUT THE TRANSITION INTO THE NEW REALITY MY FRIEND! THE GAME ISN'T OVER WITH A RATE! WE ALL WISH IT WAS THAT EASY BUT NOT EVEN ON A GOOD DAY! LOVE YA BROTHER! DOC
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
Make No Mistake: Puerto Rico Will Default on May 2, Moody's Says
Make no mistake about it: Puerto Rico will default in May on some of the $470 million it owes, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
The cash-strapped commonwealth is expected to fall short of paying $422 million to holders of bonds from the Government Development Bank, the credit rater said Friday in a report. It may also default on debt from the Employees Retirement System, Industrial Development Co. and Highways and Transportation Authority because the GDB has just $562 million in liquidity as of April 1, Moody’s said.
“These impending defaults would follow the government’s efforts to emphasize its severe cash depletion during the past year,” Moody’s analysts led by Ted Hampton and Emily Raimes wrote. “Even if federal oversight legislation is passed by the end of next week, Puerto Rico will still default because the commonwealth treasury and the GDB, which has long been the government’s fiscal agent, have insufficient liquidity for upcoming debt payments.”
Moody’s expects Puerto Rico to pay the less than $3 million owed to holders of general-obligation bonds and securities guaranteed by the commonwealth’s constitution to “avoid the almost certain litigation that would quickly follow.” Sales-tax backed debt, known by the Spanish acronym Cofina, will pay with funds already deposited with the trustee.
Appropriation debt from the Public Finance Corp., which accounts for 75 percent of all Puerto Rico defaults so far, will fail to pay yet again, Moody’s said.
http://ift.tt/1VqqbOT
Crude Oil Tankers Bound For China Surge Amid Stockpiling Signals
China, the world’s second-biggest crude consumer, may be poised for another increase in imports after the number of supertankers bound for the Asian country’s ports rose to a 16-month high amid signs it’s stockpiling.
There were 83 headed to China, the most since December 2014, according to a ship-tracking snapshot compiled by Bloomberg on Friday. Assuming standard cargo sizes, they would be able to deliver about 166 million barrels.
China is hoarding crude at the fastest pace in at least a decade, filling inventories at a time when oil futures remain about 60 percent below where they were just two years ago. The nation added 787,000 barrels a day to stockpiles in the first quarter, the most for the period since at least 2004 when Bloomberg started calculations based on customs data. Its imports climbed in March from countries including Iran, Venezuela and Brazil. Read More At:
http://ift.tt/1MRJn5w
************
Mountainman: Yikes......CHINA.......The Domino that STARTS the FALL of the REMAINING DOMINOS........The IMF had Keyword{TRANSITION}.......In Many GLOBAL ARTICLES.....and NOW we See the NEW REALITIES becoming MORE TRANSPARENT........LOOK Out (BELOW)......SHEESH.....IMO Blessings,Mountainman (8)=New Beginnings
BACKDOC: THERE'S NO SURPRISE TO CHINA'S DEBT AS I HAVE TAUGHT YOU WELL BY NOW BUT MY THOUGHT TONIGHT FOR YOU IS THAT WE WILL SEE THE VALUE CHANGE COME FROME THE EAST AND MOVE TO THE WEST!
YES WE EXPECT A RATE SOON BUT YOU BETTER KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING ONCE ITS HERE BECAUSE THERE IS DANGER AHEAD! I'M STAYING IN ASSET BACKED ASSETS UNTIL THE TRANSITION IS COMPLETE. DON'T EXPECT THAT TILL JANUARY!
FOR NOW I WILL ELIMINATE ALL DOLLAR DEBT AND ONLY TRANSITION TO DOLLARS WHAT I CAN SPEND THAT WILL BE SECURITIZED LIKE LAND, ASSET BACKED BONDS IF AVAILABLE, METALS WILL BE GOOD BUT WILL LIKELY DROP IN COMPARISON TO THE EMERGING COUNTRIES CURRENCIES, AND BY ALL MEANS NOT FIAT TREASURY BONDS (OUCH),!
JUST MY THOUGHTS AND NOT INTENDED FOR ADVICE! DOC IMO
Thunderhawk: China debt load reaches record high as risk to economy mounts
China’s total debt rose to a record 237 percent of gross domestic product in the first quarter, far above emerging-market counterparts, raising the risk of a financial crisis or a prolonged slowdown in growth, economists warn.
Beijing has turned to massive lending to boost economic growth, bringing total net debt to Rmb163 trillion ($25 trillion) at the end of March, including both domestic and foreign borrowing, according to Financial Times calculations.
Such levels of debt are much higher as a proportion of national income than in other developing economies, although they are comparable to levels in the U.S. and the eurozone.
While the absolute size of China’s debt load is a concern, more worrying is the speed at which it has accumulated — Chinese debt was only 148 percent of GDP at the end of 2007.
“Every major country with a rapid increase in debt has experienced either a financial crisis or a prolonged slowdown in GDP growth,” Ha Jiming, Goldman Sachs chief investment strategist, wrote in a report this year.
The country’s present level of debt, and its increasing links to global financial markets, partly informed the International Monetary Fund’s recent warning that China poses a growing risk to advanced economies. Read more at:
http://ift.tt/1UaujkJ
************
Mountainman: ANYONE Play GLOBAL MARKET PINBALL Lately???......Yah Me Neither.....However this ALL POINTS BULLETIN, tells the BIG STORY for WALL STREET and MAIN STREET......GLOBALLY Speaking that is......Let the MARKET TURMOIL Begin.....TOWARDS A NEW REALITY W/In.......IMO
Blessings,Mountainman (8)=New Beginnings
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
This could bring on the volatility in the week ahead
Apple, Facebook, ExxonMobil and dozens of other major companies report earnings in the week ahead, but central banks could bring on the volatility.
There is also a heavy schedule of economic reports in the coming week, including first quarter GDP on Thursday. Economists expect a barely positive number, and most forecasts are looking at growth under 1 percent. There are also durable goods Tuesday, international trade Wednesday and personal income and spending for March on Friday.
Oil inventory data from American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday afternoon and the Energy Department Wednesday morning will also be watched, as all markets are keeping an eye on oil prices. Brent was up almost 5 percent for the week to just above $45 a barrel, and the S&P energy sector was the best performer for the week — up 5 percent. The jump in oil prices surprised traders who were looking for a sell-off after producing nations failed to reach a deal to freeze production last weekend.
Stocks were higher in the past week, with the S&P 500 at 2,091.58, up 0.52 percent. The Dow was up 1.4. Stock strategists are looking for a breakout to the upside, even as yields look set to move higher.
In the coming week, the Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and it is widely expected to take no action on rates, while sticking to its message that a rate hike isn't imminent.
"I think they will try their darndest to avoid any kind of policy change in their language," said Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock's chief investment strategist for fixed income.
But then there's the Bank of Japan, which meets Thursday. "There's greater uncertainty with regard to what Japan is going to do," said Rosenberg. "I think the bigger question is whether it will have any impact." The last time the bank took action, it announced negative yields. As if in defiance, the yen ripped higher, and the negative yields ignited market fears that the program would be negative for banks.
There's speculation the BOJ could announce more asset purchases and take steps to apply negative rates to bank loans. "That is the potential risk. That would be viewed as them trying to fine tune the negative rate story so it actually helps the banking system," said George Goncalves, head of rate strategy at Nomura. He said the purchases most likely will be of more Japanese equity ETFs.
"I think it's all about what they're trying to achieve and can they do it. Even if it doesn't work long term, will it cause a market reaction? We have to be prepared for it. I think the Bank of Japan will give it a go next week, and it will be more important than the Fed," said Goncalves. "If the Fed can give a lukewarm hawkish message, and they get it right, that will keep the dollar from rallying and push long-term rates higher while pushing back hiking expectations a little more." He explained in a "lukewarm hawkish" message the Fed would appear to be intentionally holding off on rate hikes even though conditions have improved since its last meeting.
Goncalves said if the Fed is then followed by a dovish BOJ, that could push the 10-year yield closer to 2 percent. The yield on the 10-year was at 1.88 percent Friday, well above the 1.75 percent the week earlier.
Rosenberg said the markets are reversing the flight to quality trade from earlier in the year.
"I think we've had a rebound off of the beginning-of-year global concerns," said Rosenberg. "It's notable that both the Fed and the ECB (European Central Bank) cited the global concerns when describing the impacts on their policy rather than developments in their domestic economies. … It's really about relieving some of those risks."
Rosenberg said he believes the turn in the market came when oil and commodities reversed course in February. A big factor was China, when it took steps in mid-February to soothe concerns about a significant yuan devaluation. The Fed also played a role, changing its forecast from four rate hikes this year to two, and taking pressure off the dollar.
"The Fed changed its message on its pace of normalization in March. The market started to anticipate that in February, but they made good on it in March. That was important," he said. Rosenberg said the risks are still there but they've moved to the background for now.
Rosenberg said China effectively calmed global fears when it emphasized policy to bring stabilization, using its traditional lever of credit growth to encourage production in real estate and infrastructure.
China was a key concern of the Fed, as it had been for the markets during the sell-off in January and February. Traders are now watching corporate earnings to see if there are any signs of change coming on that front. Caterpillar's CEO Doug Oberhelman said he believes his business is bottoming and he hopes 2016 will be the last down year.
"We've seen actually an adjustment upwards in China in the first quarter, which is kind of nice. It's the first time we've talked about that in a couple [or] three years," he told CNBC. He said China is stimulating and it is showing up in some large products. "Hopefully that will be sustained; something they do throughout the rest of the year."
But even with the stock market's gains, individual issues took a beating if they were the bearer of disappointing earnings news. High-profile misses have been seen, particularly in tech where Alphabet, IMB and Microsoft all disappointed.
But there is also a view that the worst is over for the corporate profit recession.
"This will be the fourth quarter of no earnings growth, but this is the call, truly, that this is the end of that. It may be the case where this started in the second quarter of last year, so year over year the second quarter is going to show earnings growth. That will be a very important signal," said Art Hogan, market strategist at Wunderlich Securities. "The guidance as a whole has been a lot less about pointing to the dollar and plunging oil prices."
Apple's earnings will be another test this week, since so many tech names have disappointed. But Scott Wren, senior equities strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, does not expect it to make a difference to the market.
"That's not going to be anything that's going to throw off the entire earnings season, if it misses or gets a positive boost if it beats. Overall, this earnings season is like the last eight earnings seasons," Wren said. "All it does is confirm we're in a very modest growth, modest inflation environment. Clearly the market is looking way beyond the first quarter."
Wren, like others, expects the S&P to take out its 2,134 high. "We'll grind higher and test that 2,134 intraday high, but I would not think we make it through the first time or even the first couple of times. I think the market wants to go up, but we've come a long way. There's definitely a bid to the market."
What to Watch
Monday
Earnings: Halliburton, Xerox, First Data, KKR, Crane, Ethan Allen, The Container Store, Express Scripts, Canadian National Railway, Pioneer Natural Resources, Zions Bancorporation
10 a.m. New home sales
Tuesday
Federal Open Market Committee begins two-day meeting.
Earnings: Apple, 3M, DuPont, BP, AT&T, Fiat Chrysler, Procter & Gamble, Coach, Eli Lilly, Hershey, Martin Marietta Materials, Ingersoll Rand, Corning, Entergy, Whirlpool, T. Rowe Price, Lockheed Martin, JetBlue
8:30 a.m. Durable goods
9 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller
9:45 a.m. Services PMI
10 a.m. Consumer confidence
1 p.m. $26 billion two-year note auction
Wednesday
Earnings: Facebook, Boeing, GlaxoSmithKline, United Technologies, Total, Mondelez, General Dynamics, Dr Pepper Snapple, Boston Scientific, Comcast, Baker Hughes, Anthem, Nasdaq OMX, Hess, International Paper, Southern Company, Northrop Grumman, Goodyear Tire, Marriott
8:30 a.m. International trade
10 a.m. Pending home sales
1 p.m. $34 billion five-year note auction
2 p.m. FOMC statement
Thursday
Earnings: Amazon.com, Viacom, Amgen, Gilead, ConocoPhillips, Deutsche Bank, Colgate-Palmolive, Bristol-Myers Squibb, MasterCard, Altria, Ford, Dow Chemical, Celgene, Air Products, Aetna, UPS, Eaton, Beazer Homes, Marathon Petroleum, Potash
8:30 a.m. Initial claims; real GDP Q1
10 a.m. Housing vacancies
1 p.m. $28 billion seven-year note auction
Friday
Earnings: ExxonMobil, Chevron, AstraZeneca, Eaton, VF Corp, Cabot Oil, Calpine, Moody's, American Tower, Tyco, Phillips 66
6:30 a.m. Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan
8:30 a.m. Personal income; employment cost index
9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI
10 a.m. Consumer sentiment
http://ift.tt/1VNlsXt
************
Mountainman: OUCH......Many In this {TRANSITION} Will be HIT HARD w/FIAT REALITIES......BONDS......and Much More.....It is A STORM that Has Been On the HORIZON for Some TIME Now......and Here it is {ARISING} w/MULTIPLE FRONTS In it's PATH.....And MANY MORE {BEHIND} As Well.......IMO Blessings, Mountainman (8)=New Beginnings
BACKDOC: OK AL, LET ME ASK YOU A QUESTION. ONCE YOU HAVE YOU RATE AND CAN SWAP YOUR CURRENCY FOR DOLLARS, WOULD IT MATTER TO YOU IF YOUR DOLLARS LOST HALF OR MORE OF ITS INTERNATIONAL PURCHASING POWER AFTER YOU EXCHANGED IT TO DOLLARS? MMMM
I GUESS IF IT MATTERS TO YOU THEN TRY TO CONSIDER WHY AND WHAT WE TEACH YOU ABOUT THE TRANSITION INTO THE NEW REALITY MY FRIEND! THE GAME ISN'T OVER WITH A RATE! WE ALL WISH IT WAS THAT EASY BUT NOT EVEN ON A GOOD DAY! LOVE YA BROTHER! DOC
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
Make No Mistake: Puerto Rico Will Default on May 2, Moody's Says
Make no mistake about it: Puerto Rico will default in May on some of the $470 million it owes, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
The cash-strapped commonwealth is expected to fall short of paying $422 million to holders of bonds from the Government Development Bank, the credit rater said Friday in a report. It may also default on debt from the Employees Retirement System, Industrial Development Co. and Highways and Transportation Authority because the GDB has just $562 million in liquidity as of April 1, Moody’s said.
“These impending defaults would follow the government’s efforts to emphasize its severe cash depletion during the past year,” Moody’s analysts led by Ted Hampton and Emily Raimes wrote. “Even if federal oversight legislation is passed by the end of next week, Puerto Rico will still default because the commonwealth treasury and the GDB, which has long been the government’s fiscal agent, have insufficient liquidity for upcoming debt payments.”
Moody’s expects Puerto Rico to pay the less than $3 million owed to holders of general-obligation bonds and securities guaranteed by the commonwealth’s constitution to “avoid the almost certain litigation that would quickly follow.” Sales-tax backed debt, known by the Spanish acronym Cofina, will pay with funds already deposited with the trustee.
Appropriation debt from the Public Finance Corp., which accounts for 75 percent of all Puerto Rico defaults so far, will fail to pay yet again, Moody’s said.
http://ift.tt/1VqqbOT
BACKDOC: IT'S JUST HOW A TRAP WORKS ISN'T IT? YOU GET EVERYONE BELIEVING WHERE TO GO IS SAFE AND YOU SET THE TRAP!
CAN YOU IMAGINE HOW ANGRY INVESTORS ARE GOING TO BE WHEN THEY ONLY GET A MEAGER RETURN OR ALMOST NONE IN SOME CASES AND MAY END UP TRAPPED FOR THE LIFE OF THE BOND AFTER THE VALUE DROPS HALF OR MORE? WOW! MOST WILL BE WIPED OUT FROM THIS!
I CAN'T THINK OF A RISKER PLACE TO BE THAN FIAT BONDS! DOC IMO
Mountainman: SHEESH DOC.....We NEED GLOBAL CPR......Because these PEOPLE are Going to Have {HEART ATTACKS}.....After they "REALIZE"
How Much that OLD FIAT is COSTING THEM.......BONDS.....Forget that GUY.....LOL.....JAMES......OLD BEN.....Is BEEN BETTER in Days Past......But CURRENT/CY/LY.....Not a GOOD {PROGNOSIS}......Anyone Know....A GOOD DOC......LOL.....Blessings,Mountainman (8)=New Beginnings.....For MARKETS......EVENTUALLY...IMO
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
It's Dangerous Out There in the Bond Market
Bond investors are taking bigger risks than ever before.
Yields on $7.8 trillion of government bonds have been driven below zero by worries over global growth, meaning money managers looking for income are pouring into debt with maturities of as long as 100 years. Central banks’ policy is exacerbating matters, as the unprecedented debt purchases to spur their economies have soaked up supply and left would-be buyers with few options
While demand has shown few signs of abating, investors are setting themselves up for damaging losses if yields rise even a little from their rock-bottom levels. Based on a metric called duration, a half-percentage point increase would result in a loss of about $1.6 trillion in the global bond market, according to calculations based on data compiled by Bank of America Corp. This year alone, the danger of owning debt has surged by the most since 2010, raising concerns from heavyweights such as Bill Gross.
“It takes a fairly small move out in rates on the long-end to wipe out your annual return,” said Thomas Wacker, the head of credit of the Chief Investment Office at UBS Wealth Management, which oversees $2 trillion in assets. Longer-maturity debt is “not something we are particularly keen on,” he said.
Investors continuing to buy bonds even when they pay next to nothing suggests deep concern over the state of the global economy. This month, the International Monetary Fund warned the threat of worldwide stagnation was rising because economic expansion has been so tepid for so long. It also chopped its 2016 growth forecast to 3.2 percent from 3.4 percent in January. Read More at:
http://ift.tt/1WQ1mv7
CAN YOU IMAGINE HOW ANGRY INVESTORS ARE GOING TO BE WHEN THEY ONLY GET A MEAGER RETURN OR ALMOST NONE IN SOME CASES AND MAY END UP TRAPPED FOR THE LIFE OF THE BOND AFTER THE VALUE DROPS HALF OR MORE? WOW! MOST WILL BE WIPED OUT FROM THIS!
I CAN'T THINK OF A RISKER PLACE TO BE THAN FIAT BONDS! DOC IMO
Mountainman: SHEESH DOC.....We NEED GLOBAL CPR......Because these PEOPLE are Going to Have {HEART ATTACKS}.....After they "REALIZE"
How Much that OLD FIAT is COSTING THEM.......BONDS.....Forget that GUY.....LOL.....JAMES......OLD BEN.....Is BEEN BETTER in Days Past......But CURRENT/CY/LY.....Not a GOOD {PROGNOSIS}......Anyone Know....A GOOD DOC......LOL.....Blessings,Mountainman (8)=New Beginnings.....For MARKETS......EVENTUALLY...IMO
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
It's Dangerous Out There in the Bond Market
Bond investors are taking bigger risks than ever before.
Yields on $7.8 trillion of government bonds have been driven below zero by worries over global growth, meaning money managers looking for income are pouring into debt with maturities of as long as 100 years. Central banks’ policy is exacerbating matters, as the unprecedented debt purchases to spur their economies have soaked up supply and left would-be buyers with few options
While demand has shown few signs of abating, investors are setting themselves up for damaging losses if yields rise even a little from their rock-bottom levels. Based on a metric called duration, a half-percentage point increase would result in a loss of about $1.6 trillion in the global bond market, according to calculations based on data compiled by Bank of America Corp. This year alone, the danger of owning debt has surged by the most since 2010, raising concerns from heavyweights such as Bill Gross.
“It takes a fairly small move out in rates on the long-end to wipe out your annual return,” said Thomas Wacker, the head of credit of the Chief Investment Office at UBS Wealth Management, which oversees $2 trillion in assets. Longer-maturity debt is “not something we are particularly keen on,” he said.
Investors continuing to buy bonds even when they pay next to nothing suggests deep concern over the state of the global economy. This month, the International Monetary Fund warned the threat of worldwide stagnation was rising because economic expansion has been so tepid for so long. It also chopped its 2016 growth forecast to 3.2 percent from 3.4 percent in January. Read More at:
http://ift.tt/1WQ1mv7
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