WEALTHWATCH 4-17-16
Post From Wealthwatch.world Chat Room
Wealthwatch Chat Room News & Comments 4-17-16
chattels: Excellent summary of the past two weeks of political action.
http://ift.tt/1QgtlMR
chattels: http://ift.tt/1W4kl4D
chattels: susannah george - Read ISW's take and be a bit less confused bit.ly/1SgrMDa
chattels: IRAQ GOVERNMENT COLLAPSE LIKELY AS A RUMP PARLIAMENT CALLS FOR RESIGNATIONS Apr 15, 2016 - Patrick Martin
~~~
Post From Wealthwatch.world Chat Room
Wealthwatch Chat Room News & Comments 4-17-16
chattels: Excellent summary of the past two weeks of political action.
http://ift.tt/1QgtlMR
chattels: http://ift.tt/1W4kl4D
chattels: susannah george - Read ISW's take and be a bit less confused bit.ly/1SgrMDa
chattels: IRAQ GOVERNMENT COLLAPSE LIKELY AS A RUMP PARLIAMENT CALLS FOR RESIGNATIONS Apr 15, 2016 - Patrick Martin
~~~
chattels: Week of March 31: Maliki Attempts to Oust PM Abadi The leader of the SLA, Vice President Nouri al-Maliki, attempted to oust PM Abadi. The U.S. and Iran were meanwhile applying leverage to ensure that PM Abadi did not leave office. U.S. support for PM Abadi during the reshuffle has been particularly strong and visible;
U.S. officials, including Secretary of State John Kerry, met with the leaders of numerous political blocs in Iraq on April 8, and U.S. Vice President even phoned PM Abadi multiple times to express his support.
The U.S. reached out to political blocs, including ISCI and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), to discourage any attempt to remove PM Abadi. For the U.S., retaining PM Abadi in his position is critical for maintaining ongoing anti-ISIS efforts.
PM Abadi willfully accepts U.S. and Coalition assistance as far as is possible without sparking the ire of Iran and its proxies. He also actively resists pressure to conform to Iranian directives, albeit weakly.
More importantly, there are no obvious candidates to replace PM Abadi should he leave the premiership for any reason, and a political crisis stemming from a collapsed government could severely undermine anti-ISIS efforts, reversing progress and allowing ISIS to take advantage of the unrest to re-establish its capabilities and launch attacks.
chattels: It is not clear when Maliki attempted to replace PM Abadi, and it is unclear whether or not Maliki attempted to replace PM Abadi before or after the March 31 CoR session that saw PM Abadi submit his list of technocratic nominations.
But Maliki’s attempt to remove PM Abadi, and the cabinet’s change from a technocratic one to one of political party interests, demonstrated PM Abadi’s vulnerability and his inability to impose his will on the political blocs.
chattels: Iraq’s political crisis has reached a dangerous threshold – political blocs still have not reached an agreement on the new cabinet and are experiencing internal fracturing.
The result could be a collapse of the Iraqi government: the CoR could vote no-confidence in PM Abadi or he could resign. The CoR could lose a quorum and cease to function as it did in 2006.
The rump CoR could persist and create a parallel government. A judicial challenge to the constitutional crisis that ensues would likely favor Maliki, as long as Medhat Mahmoud, the head of the Judiciary and a longtime Maliki ally, remains.
CoR Speaker could also dissolve the CoR and call for early elections at the threat of facing mounting protests and instability across the country. Any of these prospects practically ensures that there will be no possibility of recapturing Mosul in 2016.
chattels: The consequences of Abadi’s fall or a constitutional crisis could be disastrous for the stability of the country. Ongoing street demonstrations and confusion surrounding the process of selecting a new government could expose the country to attacks by ISIS aimed at further exacerbating the situation.
The security situation could worsen as Iraqi Shi’a militias descend on Baghdad in a bid to influence the political climate, an outcome that could increase the possibility of intra-political party violence in Baghdad.
Alternatively, formal institutions of the Iraqi Security Forces could become involved, although ISW has observed no such indicators as of April 14. Iraq’s Kurds could take concrete steps towards secession if efforts to form a new government exclude Kurdish blocs.
The government will make no progress in addressing the worsening economic situation, the return of internally-displaced persons to their homes, or the reconstruction of damaged parts of the country.
Moreover, the progress of the war against ISIS will be suspended in limbo, as the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) will be conducting operations for a failed government, and make it far more difficult for the U.S. to conduct anti-ISIS operations.
chattels: ISW previously assessed that a vote of no-confidence against PM Abadi was the most dangerous rather than the most likely course of action because no compromise candidates exist to take his place. It is still unclear if the political blocs could get behind any political leader.
Maliki will not likely be able to form a government because of the degree of animosity other political blocs have towards him. National Alliance chairman Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a close ally of Iran, is the closest thing to a consensus candidate amongst the Shi’a parties, but even he would face serious obstacles as a candidate.
These establishment figures remain possible candidates for the premiership only if the political blocs manage to rein in their rebelling CoR members. Time will tell if the rebelling CoR members will coalesce into a functioning political bloc capable of challenging others in the CoR.
But the formation of a rump CoR and growing calls for the dissolution of government, in defiance of the wishes of the political bloc leaders, Iran, and the U.S., bode ill for PM Abadi’s ability to remain in office and effective.
Political blocs may still put their differences aside and vote to retain confidence in PM Abadi by selecting a new cabinet, but that remains unlikely, as political blocs remain undecided on what the new cabinet should look like.
A vote of no-confidence or a constitutional crisis in which the formal, elected parliament no longer functions are more likely scenarios. The U.S. must therefore prepare for the possibility that the post-Abadi Iraq will arrive sooner than expected, with all of the instability that will follow.
chattels: " A judicial challenge to the constitutional crisis that ensues would likely favor Maliki, as long as Medhat Mahmoud, the head of the Judiciary and a longtime Maliki ally, remains."
chattels: Tariq Harb: Federal will be based on the video to decide on the legitimacy of the dismissal of al-Jubouri
chattels: " the Federal Court will be based on filming the video for the purpose of knowing the number of voters on the dismissal of the President of the House of Representatives "
chattels: http://ift.tt/1QgtjEZ
chattels: Difficult to understand how Medhat's count can differ from the film footage, but " the constitutional crisis that ensues " likely contemplates broader constitutional issues.
chattels: When I think of the persistent malignant influence of Mr. Maliki I hear the Toby Keith song in my mind and the one(s) who insisted upon rumoring his obviously premature demise, " but you overlooked me somehow ", ................. " you think I'm still crazy, standing here today ", .........." livin' in your radio ", ....................... " I will preach on ", ................. " How do you like me now ? "
OOTW: Abadi sometimes to strongly walks the line of being diplomatic, he's going to have to emit more protection for his post and stronger insistence for the reshuffle
OOTW: *too strongly
OOTW: without appearing a dictator...however, to date, i have not witnessed any behaviour from him indicating he sees himself as a dictator
OOTW: the next week will be very intense i think
U.S. officials, including Secretary of State John Kerry, met with the leaders of numerous political blocs in Iraq on April 8, and U.S. Vice President even phoned PM Abadi multiple times to express his support.
The U.S. reached out to political blocs, including ISCI and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), to discourage any attempt to remove PM Abadi. For the U.S., retaining PM Abadi in his position is critical for maintaining ongoing anti-ISIS efforts.
PM Abadi willfully accepts U.S. and Coalition assistance as far as is possible without sparking the ire of Iran and its proxies. He also actively resists pressure to conform to Iranian directives, albeit weakly.
More importantly, there are no obvious candidates to replace PM Abadi should he leave the premiership for any reason, and a political crisis stemming from a collapsed government could severely undermine anti-ISIS efforts, reversing progress and allowing ISIS to take advantage of the unrest to re-establish its capabilities and launch attacks.
chattels: It is not clear when Maliki attempted to replace PM Abadi, and it is unclear whether or not Maliki attempted to replace PM Abadi before or after the March 31 CoR session that saw PM Abadi submit his list of technocratic nominations.
But Maliki’s attempt to remove PM Abadi, and the cabinet’s change from a technocratic one to one of political party interests, demonstrated PM Abadi’s vulnerability and his inability to impose his will on the political blocs.
chattels: Iraq’s political crisis has reached a dangerous threshold – political blocs still have not reached an agreement on the new cabinet and are experiencing internal fracturing.
The result could be a collapse of the Iraqi government: the CoR could vote no-confidence in PM Abadi or he could resign. The CoR could lose a quorum and cease to function as it did in 2006.
The rump CoR could persist and create a parallel government. A judicial challenge to the constitutional crisis that ensues would likely favor Maliki, as long as Medhat Mahmoud, the head of the Judiciary and a longtime Maliki ally, remains.
CoR Speaker could also dissolve the CoR and call for early elections at the threat of facing mounting protests and instability across the country. Any of these prospects practically ensures that there will be no possibility of recapturing Mosul in 2016.
chattels: The consequences of Abadi’s fall or a constitutional crisis could be disastrous for the stability of the country. Ongoing street demonstrations and confusion surrounding the process of selecting a new government could expose the country to attacks by ISIS aimed at further exacerbating the situation.
The security situation could worsen as Iraqi Shi’a militias descend on Baghdad in a bid to influence the political climate, an outcome that could increase the possibility of intra-political party violence in Baghdad.
Alternatively, formal institutions of the Iraqi Security Forces could become involved, although ISW has observed no such indicators as of April 14. Iraq’s Kurds could take concrete steps towards secession if efforts to form a new government exclude Kurdish blocs.
The government will make no progress in addressing the worsening economic situation, the return of internally-displaced persons to their homes, or the reconstruction of damaged parts of the country.
Moreover, the progress of the war against ISIS will be suspended in limbo, as the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) will be conducting operations for a failed government, and make it far more difficult for the U.S. to conduct anti-ISIS operations.
chattels: ISW previously assessed that a vote of no-confidence against PM Abadi was the most dangerous rather than the most likely course of action because no compromise candidates exist to take his place. It is still unclear if the political blocs could get behind any political leader.
Maliki will not likely be able to form a government because of the degree of animosity other political blocs have towards him. National Alliance chairman Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a close ally of Iran, is the closest thing to a consensus candidate amongst the Shi’a parties, but even he would face serious obstacles as a candidate.
These establishment figures remain possible candidates for the premiership only if the political blocs manage to rein in their rebelling CoR members. Time will tell if the rebelling CoR members will coalesce into a functioning political bloc capable of challenging others in the CoR.
But the formation of a rump CoR and growing calls for the dissolution of government, in defiance of the wishes of the political bloc leaders, Iran, and the U.S., bode ill for PM Abadi’s ability to remain in office and effective.
Political blocs may still put their differences aside and vote to retain confidence in PM Abadi by selecting a new cabinet, but that remains unlikely, as political blocs remain undecided on what the new cabinet should look like.
A vote of no-confidence or a constitutional crisis in which the formal, elected parliament no longer functions are more likely scenarios. The U.S. must therefore prepare for the possibility that the post-Abadi Iraq will arrive sooner than expected, with all of the instability that will follow.
chattels: " A judicial challenge to the constitutional crisis that ensues would likely favor Maliki, as long as Medhat Mahmoud, the head of the Judiciary and a longtime Maliki ally, remains."
chattels: Tariq Harb: Federal will be based on the video to decide on the legitimacy of the dismissal of al-Jubouri
chattels: " the Federal Court will be based on filming the video for the purpose of knowing the number of voters on the dismissal of the President of the House of Representatives "
chattels: http://ift.tt/1QgtjEZ
chattels: Difficult to understand how Medhat's count can differ from the film footage, but " the constitutional crisis that ensues " likely contemplates broader constitutional issues.
chattels: When I think of the persistent malignant influence of Mr. Maliki I hear the Toby Keith song in my mind and the one(s) who insisted upon rumoring his obviously premature demise, " but you overlooked me somehow ", ................. " you think I'm still crazy, standing here today ", .........." livin' in your radio ", ....................... " I will preach on ", ................. " How do you like me now ? "
OOTW: Abadi sometimes to strongly walks the line of being diplomatic, he's going to have to emit more protection for his post and stronger insistence for the reshuffle
OOTW: *too strongly
OOTW: without appearing a dictator...however, to date, i have not witnessed any behaviour from him indicating he sees himself as a dictator
OOTW: the next week will be very intense i think
Tootsie: Former commander of US forces in Iraq: a unified Iraq ended Sunday 17-04-2016 | 7:54:15 Twilight News / retired US general, said on Sunday that a unified Iraq is over and you must know that this country now consists of three different areas shared by Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis.
A former commander of US forces in Iraq for four years Raymond Odierno, in a statement for "Fox News Sunday" that a united Iraq had lost himself, pointing out that the defeat and break the "Daash" in Iraq needs to be 50,000, not the condition to have everyone from the Americans, but it is important to be from coalition countries.
According to the military, American Van Odierno experts is the owner of the most successful military plans in Iraq, which he said he would prefer not to support a unified Iraq, adding that everyone knows that Iraq now consists of three different areas for the Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis, and Iraq now is about three different areas and unified Iraq It has ended, as he put it.
It is worth mentioning that after the liberation of Iraq led by the United States in 2003, American military commanders, Gen. David Petraeus and Gen. Raymond Odierno, gain an international reputation for their leadership of US forces in Iraq. { They sure screwed with the Sykes-Picot Agreement ~ ~ Great Britain & France worth reading about }
http://ift.tt/1WawDIJ
Tootsie: Sunday, April 17, 2016 Iraqi-US Strategic Agreements needs reviewing, ambassador 7:55 AM admin Baghdad/ Iraq TradeLink: Iraqi ambassador to the United States Luqman al-Faily stated that the Strategic Agreement between Baghdad and Washington need "further reviewing or activating some of its clauses".
In a TV interview, he pointed out that the US administration will not supply arms to any Iraqi segment without the approval of the central government in Baghdad. He added that the US administration stressed the "unity" of Iraq, adding that it is "committed not to arm the Iraqi tribes or any other party without the consent of the central government".
On 2007, Iraq and USA signed the long-term Strategic Agreement in different economic, diplomatic, cultural and security fields, with the aim of enhancing democracy in the country.
http://ift.tt/1QgtjVf
A former commander of US forces in Iraq for four years Raymond Odierno, in a statement for "Fox News Sunday" that a united Iraq had lost himself, pointing out that the defeat and break the "Daash" in Iraq needs to be 50,000, not the condition to have everyone from the Americans, but it is important to be from coalition countries.
According to the military, American Van Odierno experts is the owner of the most successful military plans in Iraq, which he said he would prefer not to support a unified Iraq, adding that everyone knows that Iraq now consists of three different areas for the Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis, and Iraq now is about three different areas and unified Iraq It has ended, as he put it.
It is worth mentioning that after the liberation of Iraq led by the United States in 2003, American military commanders, Gen. David Petraeus and Gen. Raymond Odierno, gain an international reputation for their leadership of US forces in Iraq. { They sure screwed with the Sykes-Picot Agreement ~ ~ Great Britain & France worth reading about }
http://ift.tt/1WawDIJ
Tootsie: Sunday, April 17, 2016 Iraqi-US Strategic Agreements needs reviewing, ambassador 7:55 AM admin Baghdad/ Iraq TradeLink: Iraqi ambassador to the United States Luqman al-Faily stated that the Strategic Agreement between Baghdad and Washington need "further reviewing or activating some of its clauses".
In a TV interview, he pointed out that the US administration will not supply arms to any Iraqi segment without the approval of the central government in Baghdad. He added that the US administration stressed the "unity" of Iraq, adding that it is "committed not to arm the Iraqi tribes or any other party without the consent of the central government".
On 2007, Iraq and USA signed the long-term Strategic Agreement in different economic, diplomatic, cultural and security fields, with the aim of enhancing democracy in the country.
http://ift.tt/1QgtjVf
via Dinar Recaps - Our Blog http://ift.tt/1WawDIL
No comments:
Post a Comment