Part 2:
MountainmanIt Only takes {ONE} Domino for the REST to FALL.......So too EUROPE......The BIG ONE.....THE {POUND} will Step Up First.....JUNE......Lots of JUNE in the NEWS Lately.......However don't PANIC.....These People Know EXACTLY (WHAT and WHY)
The PIECES will Fit WHERE (THEY) want Them......IMO
BACKDOC: I THINK OZ WANTS A LOT OF DEBT TO GO AWAY!
Thunderhawk: IMF says Brexit threat to global economy
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has described Britain’s possible pullout from the European Union as a key threat to the global economy.
....
MountainmanIt Only takes {ONE} Domino for the REST to FALL.......So too EUROPE......The BIG ONE.....THE {POUND} will Step Up First.....JUNE......Lots of JUNE in the NEWS Lately.......However don't PANIC.....These People Know EXACTLY (WHAT and WHY)
The PIECES will Fit WHERE (THEY) want Them......IMO
BACKDOC: I THINK OZ WANTS A LOT OF DEBT TO GO AWAY!
Thunderhawk: IMF says Brexit threat to global economy
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has described Britain’s possible pullout from the European Union as a key threat to the global economy.
....
"It's been a long marriage between members of the European Union," AFP has quoted IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde as saying.
"It's really my personal hope that it doesn't break. Like all marriages, good talks can actually help and I hope that the dialogue can continue," she told reporters in a joint press conference with World Bank President Jim Yong Kim.
Both Kim and Lagarde later in their comments described tax evasion as another key threat to the global economy.
They further called for immediate actions by the advanced countries to stimulate growth. This, they said, is necessary to avoid backsliding into a worldwide stall.
"In the global economy, there are not many bright spots," AFP quoted Kim as saying.
"The weakening global economy threatens our progress toward ending extreme poverty by 2030."
Lagarde refused to call the downturn a "crisis," but stressed the urgency of a response all the same.
"We are on alert, not alarm," she said. "The current policy responses that we are seeing need to go faster and need to go deeper."
Both noted the rise in the need to support weak economies, many battered by the crash in the prices of oil and other commodities.
Britons are set to vote in a crucial referendum on June 23 to decide whether to back a so-called Brexit - or exit from the European bloc.
UK Prime Minister David Cameron is leading the campaign to keep the country in the EU, but faces an uphill battle as many politicians, even from his own Conservative Party, are struggling against the bid.
http://ift.tt/1SlRBSl
************
Mountainman: In the NEW REALITY.....ALL COUNTRIES {Must} Have A VALUE Based on their RESPECTIVE GDP/RESOURCES=their CURRENCY VALUE and TRADE Plays A Role as Well.....Thus As the US DOLLAR=FIAT=Currently Heads DOWN a BUMPY ROAD AHEAD......These Other Countries Are Well Aware of it....and Are Prepping for De-dollarizing their RESERVES and BONDS etc.....Because A LOSS is On the HORIZON of Said CURRENCY......UNTIL it TRANSITIONS.....Then the WATERS of Discontent will LEVEL Out.......IMO
Thunderhawk: Trade in local currencies will ensure Iran, Turkey monetary stability
Replacing the US dollar with national currencies in Iran and Turkey trade will lead to monetary stability of the two countries, former Central Bank of Iran (CBI) consultant Bijan Bidabad told Trend News Agency.
Turkey's Development Minister Cevdet Yilmaz said last week that one-third of the Iran-Turkey trade is now conducted in the Turkish lira or the Iranian rial.
Last year, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the national currencies of Iran and Turkey should become the means for trade exchanges between the two countries and they should not be influenced by Western countries. He also said that Ankara and Tehran should try to conduct all transactions in national currencies.
According to Bidabad, as the share of local currencies in global trade increases, the role of international currencies will be reduced and this can cause some concern for powerful international currencies and global trade.
In the short-term, it cannot affect Iran, Turkey economy as well as global economy, but if other countries also join the idea of replacing international currencies with national ones, it can affect international financing, he said.
If all countries trade in their national currencies, the use of global currencies such as the US dollar and euro will practically decrease and this will bring about the instability of international currencies such as the US dollar, he added.
Bidabadi further said that conducting all transactions between Tehran and Ankara in national currencies is possible.
It will have positive impacts on the economies of both countries, he said.
Responding to a question about the two countries' failure to raise the value of mutual trade despite taking all measures, he said that the recent drop in Tehran-Ankara trade is due to political reasons.
Tehran and Ankara are intended to raise their bilateral trade to $30 billion per annum.
Iran-Turkey trade turnover dropped by 32.7 percent in the first two months of 2016.
According to the Turkish Statistics Institute, trade turnover between Iran and Turkey stood at $1.324 billion in January and February 2016 which indicates a drop of 32.7 percent compared to $1.968 billion in the same period last year.
While Turkey's exports to Iran in first two months of 2015 were valued $667.8 million, recent figures have revealed that this amount has dropped by 16 percent falling to $561.1million for the same months in 2016.
Meanwhile, Turkey's imports from Iran declined by 41.3 percent and stood at $763.6 million in the aforementioned period.
Trade turnover between Iran and Turkey dropped by 29 percent to $9.76 billion in 2015 compared to the 2014 figure which was $13.71 billion.
http://ift.tt/1WA3M0T
************
Mountainman: s CHINA"S YUAN......No Relation to DON JUAN......I'm Delusional.....LOL....But I Digress......As the YUAN Becomes A PUBLIC GLOBAL REALITY on Tuesday W/GOLD Backing Them In PUBLIC VIEW.....The ??? Is (HOW) Will The PUBLIC MARKETS Interpret WHAT Is Happening and Of Course The US DOLLAR STATUS as It Has been Known Is A Part of said Change and It's TIMING......Watching {ALL} this in REAL TIME is Crazy......And We TRY to FOLLOW and Understand the Events as they UNFOLD.......Step Back and PRETEND.....YOU are Ignorant to ALL Said EVENTS Transpiring.......
Now that is The REALITY of MANY Realities that Will HIT the MASSES like A Freight Train, and YES this Includes the EVERYDAY JOE/JOANIE......Very SOON.......Just Sayn.....IMO .....Say WHAT???.....Yah Like That.......
Thunderhawk: World Bank trims East Asia growth forecasts
The World Bank trimmed its 2016 and 2017 economic growth forecasts for developing East Asia and Pacific, and said the outlook was clouded by risks such as uncertainty over China's growth prospects, financial market volatility and further falls in commodity prices.
The Washington-based lender now expects the developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region, which includes China, to grow 6.3 percent in 2016 and 6.2 percent in 2017, slowing from 6.5 percent growth in 2015, Reuters reported.
Its previous forecast in October was 6.4 percent growth in 2016 and 6.3 percent in 2017.
The expected slowdown in the region is mainly due to the continued moderation of growth in China, which is likely to see growth slow to 6.7 percent in 2016 and 6.5 percent in 2017, from 6.9 percent in 2015, the bank said. The growth forecasts for China were unchanged from October.
"The fundamentally positive base case for growth and poverty reduction in the region is subject to elevated risks," the World Bank said in its latest East Asia and Pacific Economic Update report on Monday.
Possible risks include a weaker-than-expected recovery in high-income economies, a faster-than-expected slowdown in China, as well as increases in financial market volatility that could cause monetary conditions to tighten and have adverse effects on the real economy, the bank said.
"In particular, vulnerabilities created by the interplay between high levels of indebtedness, price deflation, and slowing growth in China bear close monitoring, as do corporate and financial sector vulnerabilities across much of the region."
A further fall in commodity prices would have a negative impact on major commodity exporters and reduce the space for public spending and investment, the bank added.
Growth in Malaysia was likely to come in at 4.4 percent in 2016 and 4.5 percent in 2017, down from 5.0 percent in 2015, as weaker demand from China and low commodity prices constrain growth and public spending, the bank said.
Growth in Thailand was seen at 2.5 percent in 2016 and 2.6 percent in 2017, down from 2.8 percent in 2015, with weaker external demand and policy uncertainty likely to weigh on private investment.
Indonesia is likely to see growth accelerate to 5.1 percent in 2016 and 5.3 percent in 2017, from 4.8 percent in 2015, despite low commodity prices and headwinds to external demand.
"However, this outlook is contingent on the implementation of an ambitious public investment program, and the success of recent reforms to reduce red tape and uncertainty for private investors," the bank said, regarding Indonesia.
Growth is expected to firm in the Philippines to 6.4 percent in 2016 from 5.8 percent in 2015, on the back of accelerated implementation of the existing pipeline of public-private partnership projects, and spending related to the May 2016 presidential election, the bank said.
http://ift.tt/1SlRE0u
"It's really my personal hope that it doesn't break. Like all marriages, good talks can actually help and I hope that the dialogue can continue," she told reporters in a joint press conference with World Bank President Jim Yong Kim.
Both Kim and Lagarde later in their comments described tax evasion as another key threat to the global economy.
They further called for immediate actions by the advanced countries to stimulate growth. This, they said, is necessary to avoid backsliding into a worldwide stall.
"In the global economy, there are not many bright spots," AFP quoted Kim as saying.
"The weakening global economy threatens our progress toward ending extreme poverty by 2030."
Lagarde refused to call the downturn a "crisis," but stressed the urgency of a response all the same.
"We are on alert, not alarm," she said. "The current policy responses that we are seeing need to go faster and need to go deeper."
Both noted the rise in the need to support weak economies, many battered by the crash in the prices of oil and other commodities.
Britons are set to vote in a crucial referendum on June 23 to decide whether to back a so-called Brexit - or exit from the European bloc.
UK Prime Minister David Cameron is leading the campaign to keep the country in the EU, but faces an uphill battle as many politicians, even from his own Conservative Party, are struggling against the bid.
http://ift.tt/1SlRBSl
************
Mountainman: In the NEW REALITY.....ALL COUNTRIES {Must} Have A VALUE Based on their RESPECTIVE GDP/RESOURCES=their CURRENCY VALUE and TRADE Plays A Role as Well.....Thus As the US DOLLAR=FIAT=Currently Heads DOWN a BUMPY ROAD AHEAD......These Other Countries Are Well Aware of it....and Are Prepping for De-dollarizing their RESERVES and BONDS etc.....Because A LOSS is On the HORIZON of Said CURRENCY......UNTIL it TRANSITIONS.....Then the WATERS of Discontent will LEVEL Out.......IMO
Thunderhawk: Trade in local currencies will ensure Iran, Turkey monetary stability
Replacing the US dollar with national currencies in Iran and Turkey trade will lead to monetary stability of the two countries, former Central Bank of Iran (CBI) consultant Bijan Bidabad told Trend News Agency.
Turkey's Development Minister Cevdet Yilmaz said last week that one-third of the Iran-Turkey trade is now conducted in the Turkish lira or the Iranian rial.
Last year, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the national currencies of Iran and Turkey should become the means for trade exchanges between the two countries and they should not be influenced by Western countries. He also said that Ankara and Tehran should try to conduct all transactions in national currencies.
According to Bidabad, as the share of local currencies in global trade increases, the role of international currencies will be reduced and this can cause some concern for powerful international currencies and global trade.
In the short-term, it cannot affect Iran, Turkey economy as well as global economy, but if other countries also join the idea of replacing international currencies with national ones, it can affect international financing, he said.
If all countries trade in their national currencies, the use of global currencies such as the US dollar and euro will practically decrease and this will bring about the instability of international currencies such as the US dollar, he added.
Bidabadi further said that conducting all transactions between Tehran and Ankara in national currencies is possible.
It will have positive impacts on the economies of both countries, he said.
Responding to a question about the two countries' failure to raise the value of mutual trade despite taking all measures, he said that the recent drop in Tehran-Ankara trade is due to political reasons.
Tehran and Ankara are intended to raise their bilateral trade to $30 billion per annum.
Iran-Turkey trade turnover dropped by 32.7 percent in the first two months of 2016.
According to the Turkish Statistics Institute, trade turnover between Iran and Turkey stood at $1.324 billion in January and February 2016 which indicates a drop of 32.7 percent compared to $1.968 billion in the same period last year.
While Turkey's exports to Iran in first two months of 2015 were valued $667.8 million, recent figures have revealed that this amount has dropped by 16 percent falling to $561.1million for the same months in 2016.
Meanwhile, Turkey's imports from Iran declined by 41.3 percent and stood at $763.6 million in the aforementioned period.
Trade turnover between Iran and Turkey dropped by 29 percent to $9.76 billion in 2015 compared to the 2014 figure which was $13.71 billion.
http://ift.tt/1WA3M0T
************
Mountainman: s CHINA"S YUAN......No Relation to DON JUAN......I'm Delusional.....LOL....But I Digress......As the YUAN Becomes A PUBLIC GLOBAL REALITY on Tuesday W/GOLD Backing Them In PUBLIC VIEW.....The ??? Is (HOW) Will The PUBLIC MARKETS Interpret WHAT Is Happening and Of Course The US DOLLAR STATUS as It Has been Known Is A Part of said Change and It's TIMING......Watching {ALL} this in REAL TIME is Crazy......And We TRY to FOLLOW and Understand the Events as they UNFOLD.......Step Back and PRETEND.....YOU are Ignorant to ALL Said EVENTS Transpiring.......
Now that is The REALITY of MANY Realities that Will HIT the MASSES like A Freight Train, and YES this Includes the EVERYDAY JOE/JOANIE......Very SOON.......Just Sayn.....IMO .....Say WHAT???.....Yah Like That.......
Thunderhawk: World Bank trims East Asia growth forecasts
The World Bank trimmed its 2016 and 2017 economic growth forecasts for developing East Asia and Pacific, and said the outlook was clouded by risks such as uncertainty over China's growth prospects, financial market volatility and further falls in commodity prices.
The Washington-based lender now expects the developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region, which includes China, to grow 6.3 percent in 2016 and 6.2 percent in 2017, slowing from 6.5 percent growth in 2015, Reuters reported.
Its previous forecast in October was 6.4 percent growth in 2016 and 6.3 percent in 2017.
The expected slowdown in the region is mainly due to the continued moderation of growth in China, which is likely to see growth slow to 6.7 percent in 2016 and 6.5 percent in 2017, from 6.9 percent in 2015, the bank said. The growth forecasts for China were unchanged from October.
"The fundamentally positive base case for growth and poverty reduction in the region is subject to elevated risks," the World Bank said in its latest East Asia and Pacific Economic Update report on Monday.
Possible risks include a weaker-than-expected recovery in high-income economies, a faster-than-expected slowdown in China, as well as increases in financial market volatility that could cause monetary conditions to tighten and have adverse effects on the real economy, the bank said.
"In particular, vulnerabilities created by the interplay between high levels of indebtedness, price deflation, and slowing growth in China bear close monitoring, as do corporate and financial sector vulnerabilities across much of the region."
A further fall in commodity prices would have a negative impact on major commodity exporters and reduce the space for public spending and investment, the bank added.
Growth in Malaysia was likely to come in at 4.4 percent in 2016 and 4.5 percent in 2017, down from 5.0 percent in 2015, as weaker demand from China and low commodity prices constrain growth and public spending, the bank said.
Growth in Thailand was seen at 2.5 percent in 2016 and 2.6 percent in 2017, down from 2.8 percent in 2015, with weaker external demand and policy uncertainty likely to weigh on private investment.
Indonesia is likely to see growth accelerate to 5.1 percent in 2016 and 5.3 percent in 2017, from 4.8 percent in 2015, despite low commodity prices and headwinds to external demand.
"However, this outlook is contingent on the implementation of an ambitious public investment program, and the success of recent reforms to reduce red tape and uncertainty for private investors," the bank said, regarding Indonesia.
Growth is expected to firm in the Philippines to 6.4 percent in 2016 from 5.8 percent in 2015, on the back of accelerated implementation of the existing pipeline of public-private partnership projects, and spending related to the May 2016 presidential election, the bank said.
http://ift.tt/1SlRE0u
BACKDOC: AS I TOLD YOU THE DEVALUATION DAYS ARE OVER! INTRINSIC VALUE WILL SOON BE THE NEW GAME IN TOWN! DOC IMO
Mountainman: SHEESH HAWK..........The DEATH of FIAT is an OLD REALITY that Will RISE to the NEW REALITY........ASSETS Speak LOUDER than ALL other WORDS Now......HELLO.......
Thunderhawk : Currency wars backfire for Japan, Europe
Looking back on three months’ worth of extreme market volatility it is clear that global currency wars have entered a new and more complicated phase. In effect, volatility has neutered the power of those central banks that have been most committed to weakening their currencies. The Bank of Japan provides the most notable example of impotence.
It is quite a paradox that a country with Japan’s level of public sector debt can turn into a haven in a global market storm, but that was the case in the first quarter of 2016, FT reported.
The sharp appreciation of the yen against the dollar despite negative policy interest rates and the prospect of more negativity to come reverses the normal currency market laws of gravity. And since the equity market has tended to move in tandem with the yen since the inception of Abenomics in 2012 — logical enough given the impact of competitive devaluation on export volumes or corporate profits — Japanese equities have tumbled.
In Europe, meantime, the super-dovish rhetoric of Mario Draghi no longer works its magic. On the announcement of a more radical than expected monetary package last month, including a cut to the already negative eurozone policy rate, the euro rose against the dollar. The speech by Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen last week, in which she indicated that US rates might stay lower for longer, rubbed salt in the eurozone’s wounds.
Whatever its motivation, the Fed could be said to have had its revenge. The weakening dollar helped roll back, albeit modestly, competitive devaluations that grabbed enlarged shares of global output and corporate profits growth for Japan and the eurozone at US expense. But the US had, of course, been an earlier beneficiary of competitive devaluation when the Fed launched the first round of quantitative easing after the financial crisis. Nor is the fight over yet.
In all of this China stands out as a non-combatant. Despite lingering perceptions on Capitol Hill about mercantilist exchange rate policy and the fulminations of Donald Trump, the frontrunner to be the Republicans’ presidential nominee, the People’s Bank of China has spent billions shoring up an overvalued currency.
The PBOC’s warrior instincts have been reserved for the hedge funds that are betting on a devaluation that the central bank does not want. The hedgier have learnt the hard way that the adage about not fighting the Fed may well apply with equal force to the PBoC.
The other notable non-combatant has been Britain which, thanks to the looming possibility of exit from the European Union, has become a devaluationist by default. With the current account deficit running at about seven percent of GDP this could not be more timely. Given the unplanned nature of sterling’s decline, the term competitive devaluation scarcely applies.
The change in the dynamics of currency wars leaves Japan and the eurozone in an uncomfortable place. Devaluation was the one component of their monetary policies that appeared to have much effect.
The ability of their central banks to raise inflation to meet their mandatory targets is now even more in doubt than before. That matters for the world. While competitive devaluation is conventionally regarded as a beggar-thy-neighbor policy it could be globally benign if the monetary loosening it entailed helped lift the world economy further from the threat of deflation.
What we are left with is the hope that the US economy will prove more robust than Yellen’s speech suggested, the possibility that currencies may realign and the recognition that currency wars have been an important driver of policy rates and bond yields into negative territory.
This inflicts a profits squeeze on a fragile eurozone banking system. That may well end up entrenching pessimistic sentiment in households and businesses that have already brought forward spending in response to QE and are thus less responsive to interest rate signals. At the same time these low or negative rates cause pension liabilities to balloon, which is hardly conducive to animal spirits in the boardrooms of corporate sponsors.
The tragedy is that the lowest interest rates in living memory are not being used by developed world governments to engage in badly needed infrastructure spending. Everyone agrees that monetary policy is carrying too much of the burden in an anemic post-crisis recovery. No one seems to want to do much about it. Policy paralysis remains the order of the day.
http://ift.tt/1WA3JlD
Mountainman: SHEESH HAWK..........The DEATH of FIAT is an OLD REALITY that Will RISE to the NEW REALITY........ASSETS Speak LOUDER than ALL other WORDS Now......HELLO.......
Thunderhawk : Currency wars backfire for Japan, Europe
Looking back on three months’ worth of extreme market volatility it is clear that global currency wars have entered a new and more complicated phase. In effect, volatility has neutered the power of those central banks that have been most committed to weakening their currencies. The Bank of Japan provides the most notable example of impotence.
It is quite a paradox that a country with Japan’s level of public sector debt can turn into a haven in a global market storm, but that was the case in the first quarter of 2016, FT reported.
The sharp appreciation of the yen against the dollar despite negative policy interest rates and the prospect of more negativity to come reverses the normal currency market laws of gravity. And since the equity market has tended to move in tandem with the yen since the inception of Abenomics in 2012 — logical enough given the impact of competitive devaluation on export volumes or corporate profits — Japanese equities have tumbled.
In Europe, meantime, the super-dovish rhetoric of Mario Draghi no longer works its magic. On the announcement of a more radical than expected monetary package last month, including a cut to the already negative eurozone policy rate, the euro rose against the dollar. The speech by Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen last week, in which she indicated that US rates might stay lower for longer, rubbed salt in the eurozone’s wounds.
Whatever its motivation, the Fed could be said to have had its revenge. The weakening dollar helped roll back, albeit modestly, competitive devaluations that grabbed enlarged shares of global output and corporate profits growth for Japan and the eurozone at US expense. But the US had, of course, been an earlier beneficiary of competitive devaluation when the Fed launched the first round of quantitative easing after the financial crisis. Nor is the fight over yet.
In all of this China stands out as a non-combatant. Despite lingering perceptions on Capitol Hill about mercantilist exchange rate policy and the fulminations of Donald Trump, the frontrunner to be the Republicans’ presidential nominee, the People’s Bank of China has spent billions shoring up an overvalued currency.
The PBOC’s warrior instincts have been reserved for the hedge funds that are betting on a devaluation that the central bank does not want. The hedgier have learnt the hard way that the adage about not fighting the Fed may well apply with equal force to the PBoC.
The other notable non-combatant has been Britain which, thanks to the looming possibility of exit from the European Union, has become a devaluationist by default. With the current account deficit running at about seven percent of GDP this could not be more timely. Given the unplanned nature of sterling’s decline, the term competitive devaluation scarcely applies.
The change in the dynamics of currency wars leaves Japan and the eurozone in an uncomfortable place. Devaluation was the one component of their monetary policies that appeared to have much effect.
The ability of their central banks to raise inflation to meet their mandatory targets is now even more in doubt than before. That matters for the world. While competitive devaluation is conventionally regarded as a beggar-thy-neighbor policy it could be globally benign if the monetary loosening it entailed helped lift the world economy further from the threat of deflation.
What we are left with is the hope that the US economy will prove more robust than Yellen’s speech suggested, the possibility that currencies may realign and the recognition that currency wars have been an important driver of policy rates and bond yields into negative territory.
This inflicts a profits squeeze on a fragile eurozone banking system. That may well end up entrenching pessimistic sentiment in households and businesses that have already brought forward spending in response to QE and are thus less responsive to interest rate signals. At the same time these low or negative rates cause pension liabilities to balloon, which is hardly conducive to animal spirits in the boardrooms of corporate sponsors.
The tragedy is that the lowest interest rates in living memory are not being used by developed world governments to engage in badly needed infrastructure spending. Everyone agrees that monetary policy is carrying too much of the burden in an anemic post-crisis recovery. No one seems to want to do much about it. Policy paralysis remains the order of the day.
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