KTFA:
Thunderhawk » June 19th, 2015, 11:25 am My big fat Greek divorce
Greece and the euro zone are stuck in an abusive relationship
IT IS never pleasant to watch a relationship founder. Greece’s prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, has charged its creditors with trying to humiliate the country; he has accused the IMF of “criminal responsibility” for Greece’s suffering.
Prominent euro-zone politicians are saying openly that, without a deal to release rescue funds in the next few days, default and “Grexit” loom.
The urgency is because of a repayment of €1.5 billion ($1.7 billion), which Greece seemingly cannot afford, to the IMF on June 30th and because Greece’s European bail-out expires that day
....
Thunderhawk » June 19th, 2015, 11:25 am My big fat Greek divorce
Greece and the euro zone are stuck in an abusive relationship
IT IS never pleasant to watch a relationship founder. Greece’s prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, has charged its creditors with trying to humiliate the country; he has accused the IMF of “criminal responsibility” for Greece’s suffering.
Prominent euro-zone politicians are saying openly that, without a deal to release rescue funds in the next few days, default and “Grexit” loom.
The urgency is because of a repayment of €1.5 billion ($1.7 billion), which Greece seemingly cannot afford, to the IMF on June 30th and because Greece’s European bail-out expires that day
....
Cue the last-ditch negotiations that have become a Euro-speciality: just after The Economist went to press, finance ministers were to assemble in Luxembourg; leaders may meet over the weekend; a European Union summit is scheduled at the end of next week.
It may come down to a head-to-head between Mr Tsipras and Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor. A deal is still possible, but the sides have come to loathe each other. If this were a marriage, the lawyers would be circling.
Divorce would be a disaster—for everyone. The trouble is that, unless Greece and the euro zone change the terms of their relationship, staying together would not be a great deal better.
Exit Greece, stage far-left
To see why, start with the results of a default and Grexit. After arguing on and off for five infuriating years, some have begun to welcome the prospect. They are making a mistake.
For Greece the gains from defaulting would be slight, and the costs potentially vast. True, the country could walk away from debts of €317 billion, or almost 180% of GDP. But that is worth less to Greeks than it sounds. Although the debt is huge, it is at bargain-basement interest rates and repayable over decades. Interest payments until the early 2020s are just 3% of GDP a year.
Even for Greece, that is manageable. Nor would leaving the euro do much good. In theory, with a new drachma and its own central bank, Greece could devalue and gain competitiveness. But Greece’s trade is modest. And it has already lowered nominal wages by 16% without a boom in exports.
By contrast, the cost of Grexit would be exorbitant: bust banks, slashed savings, broken contracts and shattered confidence (see article). Politics could be devastated. Syriza, Mr Tsipras’s hard-left party, is anti-market and anti-enterprise. Neo-fascist Golden Dawn and the Communists, with a combined 12% of the vote, would thrive. Most of the parties in the middle, already discredited, would struggle. This week Mr Tsipras was due to play footsie with Vladimir Putin in Russia. Ejected from the euro, and possibly the EU, a country with a history of coups would risk becoming violent and even more corrupt.
That is one reason for the euro zone to think twice before ditching Greece. A failing state on the Aegean would be the EU’s problem regardless of whether its politicians accepted bribes in euros or drachmas—indeed, it would be a greater and less tractable problem than Greece is today. In addition, monetary union was supposed to be irrevocable. If, in fact, its members risk ejection, then contagion will be more likely to spread to other vulnerable economies, such as Portugal and Cyprus—if not in this crisis, then in the next.
Some people, including possibly Mr Tsipras, have concluded that the price of Grexit is so high that Greece can count on the euro zone giving ground at the last minute. But that is reckless. If the euro is to endure, its rules must be enforceable. So long as the monetary union is forged between sovereign states the principles of irrevocability and enforceability are contradictory. Yet you can be sure there is a limit to what the euro zone will tolerate—even if nobody knows where it lies.
Till debt do them part
The upshot is that Grexit is a process, not an event. Even if talks fail, even if Greece defaults, even if it introduces capital controls and the government starts to issue paper IOUs because no more euros are left—even then, a referendum or a new government could still offer Greece a way back.
But a deal is a process, too. Though it would doubtless be hailed as a triumph, it would mark only a step towards the eventual restructuring of Greek debt. Trust is so low and Greece’s reluctance to honour its pledges so evident, that each slug of new rescue money will depend on Greece showing that it has kept its side of the bargain. Such conditionality is necessary and economically desirable (see article), but in today’s poisoned environment comes at a high cost. Relations between the euro zone and Greece are defined in terms of the “concessions” each has screwed out of the other. The marriage may endure, but even more unhappily than before.
A change of mindset is needed. Both sides have bungled the Greek crisis. Especially at the outset, the creditors put too much weight on rapid fiscal adjustment, in a doomed attempt to limit the size of Greek debt. As well as needlessly impoverishing Greece (GDP has shrunk 21% since 2010), this was a distraction from the real task, which is to sort out the structural impediments to growth—rampant clientelism, hopeless public administration, comically bad regulations, a lethargic and unreliable justice system, nationalised assets and oligopolies, and inflexible markets for goods and services and labour.
But Mr Tsipras has made a bad situation worse. In 2014 the Greek economy grew. Now it is shrinking again, partly because Syriza has proved incompetent and even more clientelist than its predecessors. But also because posturing in negotiations has absorbed all Syriza’s attention and set the country back years. The need for a crisis to bring the talks to a head and to wring concessions from the other side has wrecked market confidence. Capital has flooded out of the banking system. Investors have kept away. Every reform has become a bargaining chip that must not be traded away before a deal and will not be exceeded once a deal has been struck. The idea that reform is actually good for Greece has been lost.
Most Greeks want to stay in the euro. But their politicians still look to Berlin for salvation, rather than to reform at home. Greece must understand that, if this does not change, the creditors will lose patience. Avoiding divorce would be better for everyone. But this marriage is not worth saving at any price.
http://ift.tt/1Imy0K5
************
.
Thunderhawk » June 19th, 2015,
VIDEO: Greece Debt Crisis: Despair as $1 Billion Withdrawn From Banks in a Day
ATHENS, Greece - Desperate Greeks expressed fears for their future Friday as more than $1.1 billion was withdrawn from banks in a single day, pushing the country closer towards a default.
Uncertainty grew after a meeting between the country's government and European creditors ended Thursday in acrimony.
Failure to clinch a deal by June 30 would see Greece default on a $1.8 billion loan payment to the International Monetary Fund, bankrupting the country and potentially driving it out of the Euro currency zone.
Talks resume Monday, but crisis-weary citizens already fear the worst - and that has prompted concerns of a potentially disastrous run on already-crippled banks.
"The situation is completely hopeless and it's getting worse day by day," said Evi Huraklia, 63. "We are all worried about our children. We've lived our lives but for the young people this is a catastrophe."
She told NBC News: "The Greek people are happy people, by nature positive. But right now they are a psychological wreck. It's not just the economic catastrophe we are dealing with it's the psychology of the people that have been driven to despair. We've become sick."
Including the $1.1 billion withdrawn from ATMs on Thursday, savers have pulled $4.5 billion from Greek banks since last weekend, banking sources told Reuters. That represents about 2.2 percent of household and corporate deposits held by Greek banks at the end of April.
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras expressed optimism that a deal would be reached, saying another emergency meeting on Monday was "a positive development on the road toward a deal."
"At this moment in time everyone must help … it's not the fault of the Greek people for all the debt, it's the fault of the government, it's the fault of capitalism," said retiree Anna Baltzopoulou, 67.
She cried as she described how she and her husband support themselves and their unemployed son from a monthly pension of $800.
"We feel betrayed. You know what it means to be a betrayed people? We feel betrayed by our government and the Europeans as well - by the political system."
Unemployed Alexander's Tsoumparis, 21, was forced to drop out of college because he couldn't pay for housing.
He said he was thinking of leaving Greece because there is no opportunity for him, and that he feels "hopeless."
"I'll go anywhere," he said. "At least I'll have a job. I don't care how much you pay me. At least I'll have a job."
Lawmakers echoed some of that frustration Friday. Haris Theoharis, member of parliament for the opposition Potami party, said the Greece face a choice "between a bad situation and a disastrous one."
So far, there have been no signs of panic on the streets of Athens. But if withdrawals continue faster than emergency cash assistance from the European Central Bank arrives, it could force the government to limit ATM transactions, as Cyprus did in 2013.
Although fed up with years of austerity, the majority of Greeks want to stay in the Euro currency zone. "The silent majority has spoken: we are staying in Europe," the conservative Greek daily Eleftheros Typos said in a commentary
http://ift.tt/1Locxn4
************
Walkingstick » June 19th, 2015,
Russia says willing to consider loans to Greece, as countries’ leaders prepare to meet
Jun 19, 2015 Lynn Berry And Nataliya Vasilyeva, The Associated Press
ST. PETERSBURG, Russia – Russia is willing to consider giving financial aid to Greece, President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman said Friday ahead of talks between the leaders of the two countries.
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras travelled to Russia as his country struggles to reach a deal with its creditors for new loans it needs to avoid defaulting on debt payments at the end of the month. Without the bailout, Greece could be headed for bankruptcy or an exit from the euro.
Tsipras’s visit has given rise to speculation that the Greeks may be seeking Russian loans.
“If the Greeks ask for a loan then we will consider it, but they have not yet asked,” Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told The Associated Press. “We would do this because they are our partners and this is a normal practice between countries who are partners.”
The talks between Putin and Tsipras began after both men addressed investors and Russian government officials at Russia’s biggest annual economic forum.
Putin made no mention of Greece’s predicament in his remarks, while Tsipras said his country strove to be a “bridge of co-operation” with “traditional friends like Russia” and others.
“As you all know, we are now in the middle of a great storm,” the Greek leader said. “But we are a seafaring nation that knows how to navigate through storms and is not afraid of heading to new seas and reaching new harbours.”
Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich also said Russia would consider a loan.
“The most important things for us are investment projects and trade with Greece. If financial support is needed, we will consider this question,” he said in an interview on RT television, the Tass news agency reported.
On the sidelines of the investment forum, Russia and Greece signed a deal Friday to build an extension of a prospective gas pipeline that would carry Russian gas to Europe through Turkey.
Russia promised Greece hundreds of millions of dollars in transit payments yearly if it agreed to build the pipeline. Construction of the pipeline is expected to start next year and be completed in 2019.
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Russia and Greece would be equal partners in the project, with Russia’s half owned by the state bank VEB.
Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said during a forum session that Russia has no plans to buy Greek bonds, but is ready support the Greek economy by stimulating investment by Russian companies. He pointed to the gas pipeline as an example.
Tsipras started his day by speaking to Russians of Greek ancestry at a memorial to Ioannis Kapodistrias, the founder of the modern Greek state who lived and worked in Russia as a Greek envoy from 1809 to 1822.
“We are starting a new era in Greek-Russian relations and we consider you who live here to be playing a very important part in this effort,” Tsipras said. “Greece has been waging a brave fight in these past few weeks and months. You are well aware of these types of difficulties and you are now standing on your feet. This is the key characteristic of the Greek people, to be able to overcome difficulties when right is on their side. The effort is one made not by the government but by the entire Greek people.”
http://ift.tt/1evjAjv
It may come down to a head-to-head between Mr Tsipras and Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor. A deal is still possible, but the sides have come to loathe each other. If this were a marriage, the lawyers would be circling.
Divorce would be a disaster—for everyone. The trouble is that, unless Greece and the euro zone change the terms of their relationship, staying together would not be a great deal better.
Exit Greece, stage far-left
To see why, start with the results of a default and Grexit. After arguing on and off for five infuriating years, some have begun to welcome the prospect. They are making a mistake.
For Greece the gains from defaulting would be slight, and the costs potentially vast. True, the country could walk away from debts of €317 billion, or almost 180% of GDP. But that is worth less to Greeks than it sounds. Although the debt is huge, it is at bargain-basement interest rates and repayable over decades. Interest payments until the early 2020s are just 3% of GDP a year.
Even for Greece, that is manageable. Nor would leaving the euro do much good. In theory, with a new drachma and its own central bank, Greece could devalue and gain competitiveness. But Greece’s trade is modest. And it has already lowered nominal wages by 16% without a boom in exports.
By contrast, the cost of Grexit would be exorbitant: bust banks, slashed savings, broken contracts and shattered confidence (see article). Politics could be devastated. Syriza, Mr Tsipras’s hard-left party, is anti-market and anti-enterprise. Neo-fascist Golden Dawn and the Communists, with a combined 12% of the vote, would thrive. Most of the parties in the middle, already discredited, would struggle. This week Mr Tsipras was due to play footsie with Vladimir Putin in Russia. Ejected from the euro, and possibly the EU, a country with a history of coups would risk becoming violent and even more corrupt.
That is one reason for the euro zone to think twice before ditching Greece. A failing state on the Aegean would be the EU’s problem regardless of whether its politicians accepted bribes in euros or drachmas—indeed, it would be a greater and less tractable problem than Greece is today. In addition, monetary union was supposed to be irrevocable. If, in fact, its members risk ejection, then contagion will be more likely to spread to other vulnerable economies, such as Portugal and Cyprus—if not in this crisis, then in the next.
Some people, including possibly Mr Tsipras, have concluded that the price of Grexit is so high that Greece can count on the euro zone giving ground at the last minute. But that is reckless. If the euro is to endure, its rules must be enforceable. So long as the monetary union is forged between sovereign states the principles of irrevocability and enforceability are contradictory. Yet you can be sure there is a limit to what the euro zone will tolerate—even if nobody knows where it lies.
Till debt do them part
The upshot is that Grexit is a process, not an event. Even if talks fail, even if Greece defaults, even if it introduces capital controls and the government starts to issue paper IOUs because no more euros are left—even then, a referendum or a new government could still offer Greece a way back.
But a deal is a process, too. Though it would doubtless be hailed as a triumph, it would mark only a step towards the eventual restructuring of Greek debt. Trust is so low and Greece’s reluctance to honour its pledges so evident, that each slug of new rescue money will depend on Greece showing that it has kept its side of the bargain. Such conditionality is necessary and economically desirable (see article), but in today’s poisoned environment comes at a high cost. Relations between the euro zone and Greece are defined in terms of the “concessions” each has screwed out of the other. The marriage may endure, but even more unhappily than before.
A change of mindset is needed. Both sides have bungled the Greek crisis. Especially at the outset, the creditors put too much weight on rapid fiscal adjustment, in a doomed attempt to limit the size of Greek debt. As well as needlessly impoverishing Greece (GDP has shrunk 21% since 2010), this was a distraction from the real task, which is to sort out the structural impediments to growth—rampant clientelism, hopeless public administration, comically bad regulations, a lethargic and unreliable justice system, nationalised assets and oligopolies, and inflexible markets for goods and services and labour.
But Mr Tsipras has made a bad situation worse. In 2014 the Greek economy grew. Now it is shrinking again, partly because Syriza has proved incompetent and even more clientelist than its predecessors. But also because posturing in negotiations has absorbed all Syriza’s attention and set the country back years. The need for a crisis to bring the talks to a head and to wring concessions from the other side has wrecked market confidence. Capital has flooded out of the banking system. Investors have kept away. Every reform has become a bargaining chip that must not be traded away before a deal and will not be exceeded once a deal has been struck. The idea that reform is actually good for Greece has been lost.
Most Greeks want to stay in the euro. But their politicians still look to Berlin for salvation, rather than to reform at home. Greece must understand that, if this does not change, the creditors will lose patience. Avoiding divorce would be better for everyone. But this marriage is not worth saving at any price.
http://ift.tt/1Imy0K5
************
.
Thunderhawk » June 19th, 2015,
VIDEO: Greece Debt Crisis: Despair as $1 Billion Withdrawn From Banks in a Day
ATHENS, Greece - Desperate Greeks expressed fears for their future Friday as more than $1.1 billion was withdrawn from banks in a single day, pushing the country closer towards a default.
Uncertainty grew after a meeting between the country's government and European creditors ended Thursday in acrimony.
Failure to clinch a deal by June 30 would see Greece default on a $1.8 billion loan payment to the International Monetary Fund, bankrupting the country and potentially driving it out of the Euro currency zone.
Talks resume Monday, but crisis-weary citizens already fear the worst - and that has prompted concerns of a potentially disastrous run on already-crippled banks.
"The situation is completely hopeless and it's getting worse day by day," said Evi Huraklia, 63. "We are all worried about our children. We've lived our lives but for the young people this is a catastrophe."
She told NBC News: "The Greek people are happy people, by nature positive. But right now they are a psychological wreck. It's not just the economic catastrophe we are dealing with it's the psychology of the people that have been driven to despair. We've become sick."
Including the $1.1 billion withdrawn from ATMs on Thursday, savers have pulled $4.5 billion from Greek banks since last weekend, banking sources told Reuters. That represents about 2.2 percent of household and corporate deposits held by Greek banks at the end of April.
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras expressed optimism that a deal would be reached, saying another emergency meeting on Monday was "a positive development on the road toward a deal."
"At this moment in time everyone must help … it's not the fault of the Greek people for all the debt, it's the fault of the government, it's the fault of capitalism," said retiree Anna Baltzopoulou, 67.
She cried as she described how she and her husband support themselves and their unemployed son from a monthly pension of $800.
"We feel betrayed. You know what it means to be a betrayed people? We feel betrayed by our government and the Europeans as well - by the political system."
Unemployed Alexander's Tsoumparis, 21, was forced to drop out of college because he couldn't pay for housing.
He said he was thinking of leaving Greece because there is no opportunity for him, and that he feels "hopeless."
"I'll go anywhere," he said. "At least I'll have a job. I don't care how much you pay me. At least I'll have a job."
Lawmakers echoed some of that frustration Friday. Haris Theoharis, member of parliament for the opposition Potami party, said the Greece face a choice "between a bad situation and a disastrous one."
So far, there have been no signs of panic on the streets of Athens. But if withdrawals continue faster than emergency cash assistance from the European Central Bank arrives, it could force the government to limit ATM transactions, as Cyprus did in 2013.
Although fed up with years of austerity, the majority of Greeks want to stay in the Euro currency zone. "The silent majority has spoken: we are staying in Europe," the conservative Greek daily Eleftheros Typos said in a commentary
http://ift.tt/1Locxn4
************
Walkingstick » June 19th, 2015,
Russia says willing to consider loans to Greece, as countries’ leaders prepare to meet
Jun 19, 2015 Lynn Berry And Nataliya Vasilyeva, The Associated Press
ST. PETERSBURG, Russia – Russia is willing to consider giving financial aid to Greece, President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman said Friday ahead of talks between the leaders of the two countries.
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras travelled to Russia as his country struggles to reach a deal with its creditors for new loans it needs to avoid defaulting on debt payments at the end of the month. Without the bailout, Greece could be headed for bankruptcy or an exit from the euro.
Tsipras’s visit has given rise to speculation that the Greeks may be seeking Russian loans.
“If the Greeks ask for a loan then we will consider it, but they have not yet asked,” Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told The Associated Press. “We would do this because they are our partners and this is a normal practice between countries who are partners.”
The talks between Putin and Tsipras began after both men addressed investors and Russian government officials at Russia’s biggest annual economic forum.
Putin made no mention of Greece’s predicament in his remarks, while Tsipras said his country strove to be a “bridge of co-operation” with “traditional friends like Russia” and others.
“As you all know, we are now in the middle of a great storm,” the Greek leader said. “But we are a seafaring nation that knows how to navigate through storms and is not afraid of heading to new seas and reaching new harbours.”
Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich also said Russia would consider a loan.
“The most important things for us are investment projects and trade with Greece. If financial support is needed, we will consider this question,” he said in an interview on RT television, the Tass news agency reported.
On the sidelines of the investment forum, Russia and Greece signed a deal Friday to build an extension of a prospective gas pipeline that would carry Russian gas to Europe through Turkey.
Russia promised Greece hundreds of millions of dollars in transit payments yearly if it agreed to build the pipeline. Construction of the pipeline is expected to start next year and be completed in 2019.
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Russia and Greece would be equal partners in the project, with Russia’s half owned by the state bank VEB.
Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said during a forum session that Russia has no plans to buy Greek bonds, but is ready support the Greek economy by stimulating investment by Russian companies. He pointed to the gas pipeline as an example.
Tsipras started his day by speaking to Russians of Greek ancestry at a memorial to Ioannis Kapodistrias, the founder of the modern Greek state who lived and worked in Russia as a Greek envoy from 1809 to 1822.
“We are starting a new era in Greek-Russian relations and we consider you who live here to be playing a very important part in this effort,” Tsipras said. “Greece has been waging a brave fight in these past few weeks and months. You are well aware of these types of difficulties and you are now standing on your feet. This is the key characteristic of the Greek people, to be able to overcome difficulties when right is on their side. The effort is one made not by the government but by the entire Greek people.”
http://ift.tt/1evjAjv
The Fed is Now Officially in VERY Serious Trouble
Submitted by Phoenix Capital Research on 06/18/2015 10:51 -0400
The market action of the last 24 hours can be summated as thus:
The Fed didn’t raise rates, so the US Dollar fell and all risk rallied hard.
The fact the Fed didn’t raise rates is not important. Interest rates have not been at zero for six years. And the last real period of tightening ended in 2006, nearly a full decade ago.
In the simplest of terms, for the Fed not to be raising rates is not interesting. What IS interesting is WHY the Fed is not raising rates.
Of course there are many reasons why: the economy is not strong enough to handle it, the Fed missed its chance to raise rates in 2011-2012, etc.
However, there is only one REAL reason why rates remain so low:
Actually it’s $555 trillion reason: and they are derivatives based on interest rates.
That is not a typo. $555 trillion… as in an amount greater than 700% of global GDP.
The world tracks "risk" based on the yield of the 10-Yr US Treasury. This yield has generally been falling non-stop since 1983. So we've had well over 30 years of money getting cheaper.
It is not coincidence that as money got cheaper, Wall Street went nuts with leverage. And given that rates have generally been trending down for over 30 years, betting on cheap money became one of the easiest trades in the world.
And that is how you get to where we are today: with a global bond bubble with over $555 trillion in derivatives trading based on it.
This is the REAL issue with interest rates, NOT the economy. The Fed cannot and will not raise rates any significant amount without risking a Crisis that would make 2008 look like a picnic (the CDO market which caused 2008 was a mere $50-60 trillion in size by comparison).
This is why Ben Bernanke told a group of hedge fund managers behind closed doors “rates will not normalize in my lifetime.” Rates CANNOT normalize because this would instantly implode the financial system.
However, the Fed has backed itself into a corner. Globally the bond markets are already starting to plunge pushing rates higher. Spain, and Italy’s bond yields have already taken out their downtrends (meaning bonds are falling and yields are rising). Japan is fast approaching the critical point at which it does the same.
And even the US is about to have its bonds test resistance (a break above the trendline means it’s GAME OVER for the Fed).
In short: 2008 was a warm up. The REAL Crisis concerns the bond bubble which is exponentially larger in scope.
http://ift.tt/1MOAN20
*************
BRICS to launch New Development Bank next week - Russia
* Leaders to decide between Shanghai and New Delhi for bank's HQ
* BRICS summit to be held July 15-16 in Brazil
* BRICS to sign a framework agreement on forex fund
By Lidia Kelly
MOSCOW, July 9 (Reuters) - Leaders of the BRICS nations will launch their long-awaited development bank at a summit next week and decide whether the headquarters should be in Shanghai or New Delhi, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday.
The creation by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa of a $100 billion bank to finance infrastructure projects has been slow in coming, with disagreements over its funding, management and headquarters.
"The (headquarters) issue will be decided on the level of the heads of the countries," Siluanov told journalists, adding that the choice is between China's Shanghai and India's New Delhi. BRICS leaders will meet July 15-16 in the Brazilian coastal city of Fortaleza.
The launch of the bank will be the group's first major achievement after struggling to take coordinated action following an exodus of capital from emerging markets last year, triggered by the scaling back of U.S. monetary stimulus.
The new bank will symbolize the growing influence of the BRICS, something that Russia has hoped for after the West imposed sanctions on Moscow in the spring for annexing part of Ukraine and its continued involvement in the country's crisis.
Capitalisation of the new bank has been a major sticking point, but Siluanov confirmed that the funding would be divided equally, with an initial total of $10 billion in cash over seven years and $40 billion in guarantees.
The $50 billion will be eventually built up to $100 billion, and the bank will be able to start lending in 2016, he said.
The bank was first proposed in 2012. The proposal was approved last year at a BRICS summit in South Africa but failed to be launched during the meeting in Russia last autumn of the Group of 20 developed and developing nations.
The bank will be open to other countries that are United Nations members, but the BRICS share is never to decline below 55 percent, Siluanov said.
The chairmanship, with a term of five years, will rotate among the members, but the first chairmanship is yet to be decided, Siluanov said.
FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT ON CURRENCY POOL
The heads of the BRICS will also sign a blueprint agreement on the group's other project - a $100 billion fund to steady the currency markets, which has also been off to a slow start.
The initiative became more acutely needed after an inflow of cheap dollars fuelled a boom in the BRICS for a decade and then reversed to a sharp outflow last year.
"We have reached an agreement that, in current conditions of capital volatility, it is important for our countries to have this buffer in addition to the International Monetary Fund," Siluanov said.
But the framework agreement to be signed in Brazil will not include any direct commitments, which are due to come later when the central banks sign agreements.
A senior Brazilian official who participates in the negotiations said the pool could become operational as soon as in 2015.
According to the agreement, the cash will continue to be held in the reserves of each BRICS country, but it can be transferred if needed to another member to soften volatility in its foreign exchange market.
China, holder of the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, will contribute the bulk of the contingency currency pool, or $41 billion.
Brazil, India and Russia will chip in $18 billion each and South Africa $5 billion.
"It is to be a mechanism that could react swiftly to capital outflow by offering swap operations .. in dollars," Siluanov said.
If a need arises, China will be eligible to ask for half of its contribution, South Africa for double and the remaining countries the amount they put in.
"Some countries may put in less, but their needs are also greater, proportionally," Siluanov said.
A BRICS member would be able to immediately get 30 percent of its eligible share and the remaining 70 percent only with a stabilisation programme from the IMF, Siluanov said. (Additional reporting by Alonso Soto in Brasilia; Writing by Lidia Kelly; editing by Jane Baird)
http://ift.tt/1evjAjz
http://ift.tt/1lW6szE
Submitted by Phoenix Capital Research on 06/18/2015 10:51 -0400
The market action of the last 24 hours can be summated as thus:
The Fed didn’t raise rates, so the US Dollar fell and all risk rallied hard.
The fact the Fed didn’t raise rates is not important. Interest rates have not been at zero for six years. And the last real period of tightening ended in 2006, nearly a full decade ago.
In the simplest of terms, for the Fed not to be raising rates is not interesting. What IS interesting is WHY the Fed is not raising rates.
Of course there are many reasons why: the economy is not strong enough to handle it, the Fed missed its chance to raise rates in 2011-2012, etc.
However, there is only one REAL reason why rates remain so low:
Actually it’s $555 trillion reason: and they are derivatives based on interest rates.
That is not a typo. $555 trillion… as in an amount greater than 700% of global GDP.
The world tracks "risk" based on the yield of the 10-Yr US Treasury. This yield has generally been falling non-stop since 1983. So we've had well over 30 years of money getting cheaper.
It is not coincidence that as money got cheaper, Wall Street went nuts with leverage. And given that rates have generally been trending down for over 30 years, betting on cheap money became one of the easiest trades in the world.
And that is how you get to where we are today: with a global bond bubble with over $555 trillion in derivatives trading based on it.
This is the REAL issue with interest rates, NOT the economy. The Fed cannot and will not raise rates any significant amount without risking a Crisis that would make 2008 look like a picnic (the CDO market which caused 2008 was a mere $50-60 trillion in size by comparison).
This is why Ben Bernanke told a group of hedge fund managers behind closed doors “rates will not normalize in my lifetime.” Rates CANNOT normalize because this would instantly implode the financial system.
However, the Fed has backed itself into a corner. Globally the bond markets are already starting to plunge pushing rates higher. Spain, and Italy’s bond yields have already taken out their downtrends (meaning bonds are falling and yields are rising). Japan is fast approaching the critical point at which it does the same.
And even the US is about to have its bonds test resistance (a break above the trendline means it’s GAME OVER for the Fed).
In short: 2008 was a warm up. The REAL Crisis concerns the bond bubble which is exponentially larger in scope.
http://ift.tt/1MOAN20
*************
BRICS to launch New Development Bank next week - Russia
* Leaders to decide between Shanghai and New Delhi for bank's HQ
* BRICS summit to be held July 15-16 in Brazil
* BRICS to sign a framework agreement on forex fund
By Lidia Kelly
MOSCOW, July 9 (Reuters) - Leaders of the BRICS nations will launch their long-awaited development bank at a summit next week and decide whether the headquarters should be in Shanghai or New Delhi, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday.
The creation by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa of a $100 billion bank to finance infrastructure projects has been slow in coming, with disagreements over its funding, management and headquarters.
"The (headquarters) issue will be decided on the level of the heads of the countries," Siluanov told journalists, adding that the choice is between China's Shanghai and India's New Delhi. BRICS leaders will meet July 15-16 in the Brazilian coastal city of Fortaleza.
The launch of the bank will be the group's first major achievement after struggling to take coordinated action following an exodus of capital from emerging markets last year, triggered by the scaling back of U.S. monetary stimulus.
The new bank will symbolize the growing influence of the BRICS, something that Russia has hoped for after the West imposed sanctions on Moscow in the spring for annexing part of Ukraine and its continued involvement in the country's crisis.
Capitalisation of the new bank has been a major sticking point, but Siluanov confirmed that the funding would be divided equally, with an initial total of $10 billion in cash over seven years and $40 billion in guarantees.
The $50 billion will be eventually built up to $100 billion, and the bank will be able to start lending in 2016, he said.
The bank was first proposed in 2012. The proposal was approved last year at a BRICS summit in South Africa but failed to be launched during the meeting in Russia last autumn of the Group of 20 developed and developing nations.
The bank will be open to other countries that are United Nations members, but the BRICS share is never to decline below 55 percent, Siluanov said.
The chairmanship, with a term of five years, will rotate among the members, but the first chairmanship is yet to be decided, Siluanov said.
FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT ON CURRENCY POOL
The heads of the BRICS will also sign a blueprint agreement on the group's other project - a $100 billion fund to steady the currency markets, which has also been off to a slow start.
The initiative became more acutely needed after an inflow of cheap dollars fuelled a boom in the BRICS for a decade and then reversed to a sharp outflow last year.
"We have reached an agreement that, in current conditions of capital volatility, it is important for our countries to have this buffer in addition to the International Monetary Fund," Siluanov said.
But the framework agreement to be signed in Brazil will not include any direct commitments, which are due to come later when the central banks sign agreements.
A senior Brazilian official who participates in the negotiations said the pool could become operational as soon as in 2015.
According to the agreement, the cash will continue to be held in the reserves of each BRICS country, but it can be transferred if needed to another member to soften volatility in its foreign exchange market.
China, holder of the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, will contribute the bulk of the contingency currency pool, or $41 billion.
Brazil, India and Russia will chip in $18 billion each and South Africa $5 billion.
"It is to be a mechanism that could react swiftly to capital outflow by offering swap operations .. in dollars," Siluanov said.
If a need arises, China will be eligible to ask for half of its contribution, South Africa for double and the remaining countries the amount they put in.
"Some countries may put in less, but their needs are also greater, proportionally," Siluanov said.
A BRICS member would be able to immediately get 30 percent of its eligible share and the remaining 70 percent only with a stabilisation programme from the IMF, Siluanov said. (Additional reporting by Alonso Soto in Brasilia; Writing by Lidia Kelly; editing by Jane Baird)
http://ift.tt/1evjAjz
http://ift.tt/1lW6szE
via Dinar Recaps - Our Blog http://ift.tt/1evjAjD
No comments:
Post a Comment