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Monday, January 25, 2016

Mnt Goat Monday Update - "To Activate the Non-Oil Productive Sectors in Iraq"  Part 1 of 2

(Thank you George for sending this so Recaps can post it.)

UU6861 – “To Activate the Non-Oil Productive Sectors in Iraq” by Mnt Goat

Hello Everyone,

So today I want to say one more time we will not see any significant value increase in the dinar unless certain laws and conditions are met. One of those conditions is the cleaning up of the CBI. I firmly believe that Dr Shabibi must be back in the CBI and it must be announced publicly that he is at the helm “officially” once again. From everything I am hearing from my CBI contact the USA is very angry that this has not yet already happened.

​They have also sent legislative consultants to assist in streamlining the parliamentary process and so keep asking what is the hold up in passing of the few last remaining needed laws.


As far as any progress on currency reform process we all know that the USA, WTO and the IMF want the lower denominations launched, like yesterday. So where are they?

​This weekend I figured it was time to catch up on any new news concerning the currency reform progress. So this was the big weekend to make my call. The contact in the CBI is telling me that Iraq is intentionally stalling, mostly from corruption in the leadership of the CBI. They tell me that since mid November they (meaning GOI) has scheduled the launching of the lower denominations twice already but still no action by the CBI.

The good news is there is no more guessing games. We now know who and the reason for holding up this event. One of the reasons is corruption  since the currency auctions will end once the RV happens. There is a ton of corruption in the auctions and huge sums of money being made by those controlling it. The other reason I am hearing is that some in the GOI finance committee feels it is not yet ready in meeting WTO requirements. On the other hand the WTO with the IMF say Iraq is more than ready.

So each points fingers at the other. This is of course ridiculous and so I want to add what I believe is happening. I believe it is the corruption in the CBI pure and simple and the GOI does not want to admit it has lost control of its monetary policy to the Maliki goons to the IMF or the USA. Remember the last two proxy governors were appointed by Maliki while he still held the prime minister position. But the good news is there is a plan to end this stalemate and return the CBI over to an independent monetary policy regulatory agency once again. I am being told the plan is to bring back Dr Shabibi.

We know that once they do launch the lower denominations their must be a 1:1 par with the US dollar for inflation adjustments first,  then later a full scale RV is planned at a much higher rate (pre-war plus equity).

Do not be fooled in thinking that this initial inflation adjustment is the RV, it is NOT. Many of these so called intel “gurus” will tell you it is and get you all hyper. They will use it to promote their wed sites and forums. But then when it does not show up in the exchanges or the banks, all will be disappointed once again for the 1,001 time. So please just ignore all these people since they haven’t a clue as to what is going on in Iraq.

For instance in Iraq (Iraq only) this is how it will work. Right now a 25,000 dinar note is worth about $23 US dollars. So once they adjust for inflation, the same note will be worth $22,500 – $28,500. Citizens will gladly run to the bank to exchange their bulky 3 zero notes (part of deletion of the zeros project) for the more secure, cleaner, newer notes and coins. They will no longer have to carry a stack of currency to the market for shopping or be weary of carrying stacks of currency home on pay day.

We may NEVER see this adjustment on the global exchanges since it will take between 5-10 days to rollout and monitor the impact first in Iraq. Get it straight in your head right now that Iraqi citizens will be converting from dinar old rate to dinar new rate and so when you hear rates in Iraq you must remember and apply this. For all of us in Europe, USA, Canada etc, we will be converting our dinar to our rate of exchange for our countries of origin currency. So you see in Germany my rate may be different than yours in USA since I am going from dinar to Euro and you are going from dinar to US dollars. Yes- you may hear about different rates in different countries. It all makes perfect sense (if we use our common sense).

I know, I know …..that these so called intel “gurus” get everyone very confused instead of truly helping since with all their jabber they always talk about rates in Iraq as they listen to their so called “boots on the ground” who know even less than they.   

Moving forward: I have heard that a delegation headed by secretary of the state for USA proceeded recently to Iraq for the main reason of moving the currency reform along and we may see some progress soon.  Look for articles about the change over in the CBI prior to any launching of these lower denominations.

Today’s News

Today is Monday January 25th  2016  and just 6 more days remaining in January. 

Parliament is now in session almost a week already and we have not yet seen much on the needed laws we have been waiting for.

Yesterday once again we hear confirmation that the Amnesty law is agreed upon by all and ready for a final vote. Will they vote on it soon?

The 2016 budget has also been passed, ratified and in the gazette. It is now open for spending allocations, but no RV(as I said it is not any indicator of the RV anyhow, it was not in 2015 and is not in 2016).

The problem of a huge deficit for 2016 still lingers as Abadi and parliament try to find ways to fill the gap. Now recent news that they are at least considering under study of increasing the value of the currency as an alternative. 

As I also commented many times already Iraq is trying to milk the west for more money and still feels it is entitled to it since it was bombed and the west should pay for its reconstruction. This is the attitude and they feel they are entitled to it. So this too has an impact on any movement for Iraq to take advantage for themselves the financial gains they can realize if they just moved forward more aggressively in all directions. They  also say that we must consider the large sums of monetary drain on fighting ISIS and DAASH on their economy. This is a factor that is impacting progress in the financial and economic sectors. But this fighting will not last much longer and then what will be their excuse?

Update: Needed Laws

Article Begins

NASSIF CONFIRM THE EXISTENCE OF A FULL AGREEMENT TO PASS A GENERAL AMNESTY LAW      

Special - scales News

He confirmed a member of the House of Representatives for high Nassif, on Thursday the National Alliance, there is full agreement to pass the amnesty law in the new legislative term, indicating that there is a partial agreement on the Federal Court Act.

Nassif said, L / scales News /, that "there is complete agreement between the political forces in the House of Representatives on the amnesty law," noting that "this law possible to pass in the new legislative term."
She added that "there are some partial agreements on the Federal Court Act in order to also passed in the current legislative term," pointing to "the need to amend the election law and amend the law of parties, which did not emanate to figure out where you this, O Party, which may not reach some kind of consensus between the Political forces".

The House of Representatives last Tuesday for its first session of the second legislative term to Thursday


Article Ends

Update: Currency Reforms

So I bring the article below which I believe is a very good summary of just where Iraq is now in their economy. Seems they know the problem but do not have the solution. The interesting part of the article is that this is the third time already we are hearing about the study underway of increasing the value of the dinar as an alternative to bridging the gap in the deficit.

The article is also warning everyone that if something is not done quickly that a severe financial crisis will emerge during the next 2 months.

I quote from the article below – “The Office of the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, said earlier that the government continues to search for sources of funding out of the economic crisis, including internal and external borrowing and taxation and activating the customs tariff and selling bonds, international and internal subscription and implementation of projects on credit.”

I quote from the article below- “that Iraq will go through a severe financial crisis during the next two months”

I quote from the article below- “there is a crisis of confidence between the Iraqi government and international banks and even friendly countries of Iraq, as Iraq may not be able to pay its debts in the future for not the existence of an integrated infrastructure in addition to the lack of productivity of vital sectors can be an alternative to oil, such as agriculture, industry and tourism, as well as who is waging war against Iraq and the terrorist gangs that need to be big money.”

I quote from the article below – “He continued, so the international banks apologize for Iraq if he asked her to lend to face the financial crisis or to fill the budget deficit, calling on the government to resort to other alternatives other than oil, including a focus on productive sectors such as industry, agriculture and tourism as well as the awareness of citizens and instill confidence in it in order to deposit his money in Iraqi banks on the grounds that there is also a crisis of confidence between the government and local banks on the one hand and between the Iraqi citizen on the other.”

I quote from the article below – “As a member of the Finance Committee MP Ahmad Rashid stressed that "the economic situation may be confusing but bridging the fiscal deficit is a real dilemma, noting that" there are several measures of the government to overcome this crisis and is now in the process of study, INCLUDING RAISING TAXES AND THE VALUE OF THE CURRENCY for the purpose of bridging the budget deficit .
Article Begins

SPECIALISTS: INTERNATIONAL BANKS MAY LEND TO APOLOGIZE FOR IRAQ      

BAGHDAD / JD / .. after the decline in oil prices to unprecedented levels, and the absence of a prudent economic policy read the economic and financial future of the country by successive governments, have warned a number of specialists and observers of the financial and economic vulnerability of the country to the financial bankruptcy and the inability of the government to pay the salaries of the affair employees and retirees to the lack of sufficient cash flow in light of the low world oil prices, Marjaheen the arrival of oil prices to below $ 10 a barrel, as pointed out that international banks and friendly countries may apologize for lending to Iraq to cope with its financial crisis because of the lack of real assurances the ability of the Iraqi government to repay debt in the future.

He says a member of the economic and investment commission deputy Almamori proof, that Iraq will go through a severe financial crisis during the next two months, which may lead to a lack of staff salaries the timing of schedule, because of low world oil prices.

He Mamouri told / JD /: that the solutions the government of the current financial crisis and processors and threats to the country does not do any good, including external borrowing, which may not be achieved because there is a crisis of confidence between the Iraqi government and international banks and even friendly countries of Iraq, as Iraq may not be able to pay its debts in the future for not the existence of an integrated infrastructure in addition to the LACK OF PRODUCTIVITY OF VITAL SECTORS CAN BE AN ALTERNATIVE TO OIL, SUCH AS AGRICULTURE, INDUSTRY AND TOURISM, AS WELL AS WHO IS WAGING WAR AGAINST IRAQ AND THE TERRORIST GANGS THAT NEED TO BE BIG MONEY.

He continued, so the international banks apologize for Iraq if he asked her to lend to face the financial crisis or to fill the budget deficit, calling on the government to resort to other alternatives other than oil, including a focus on productive sectors such as industry, agriculture and tourism as well as the awareness of citizens and instil confidence in it in order to deposit his money in Iraqi banks on the grounds that there is also a crisis of confidence between the government and local banks on the one hand and between the Iraqi citizen on the other.
The member of the parliamentary Economic Committee on the government to invest the border crossing points and activating the levies for some service organizations, as well as fees and taxes.

As a member of the Finance Committee MP Ahmad Rashid stressed that "the economic situation may be confusing but bridging the fiscal deficit is a real dilemma, noting that" there are several measures of the government to overcome this crisis and is now in the process of study, including raising taxes and the value of the currency for the purpose of bridging the budget deficit .

He told / JD / "The government is going to have all the answers and simple proportions even not be the there are gaps or heavy burden on the citizen. He noted that "the country to the brink of bankruptcy as a result of the financial crisis and low oil prices," likely the arrival of oil prices below $ 10.

It is noteworthy that, oil prices witnessed over the past week, a remarkable collapse which recorded the lowest level over the past 12 years since I arrived last Friday to $ 25 a barrel for the OPEC basket of crudes and less than $ 30 for Brent.

The Office of the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, said earlier that the government continues to search for sources of funding out of the economic crisis, including internal and external borrowing and taxation and activating the customs tariff and selling bonds, international and internal subscription and implementation of projects on credit.

For its part, the Supreme religious authority warned of the collapse of the economic situation in the country, stressing that successive governments have wasted financial resources without the benefit them economically.
The representative of the religious authority in the province of Karbala, Ahmed net during his speech at the Friday prayer sermon, that "everyone knows that Iraq has economic and financial elements of a strong state and what God blessed him of Yes various whether the potential of the minds and the arms of his sons or natural wealth in the ground and the face of it, but the successive governments of the country for decades did not work to harness this potential to serve the people and to provide a decent life for him, but most of its financial resources wasted in successive freaks and temporary dictators wars. "

He said net "in recent years, despite emitted governments of free elections, but the situation has not changed for the better in a lot of areas, but increased the suffering of the citizens, many aspects of the Poor management and broad scale financial and administrative hand-corruption and security situations deteriorating the other hand, was prevented from investment potential of the country and financial resources for the sake of his children and their happiness service. " He called on the government to the need to find real alternatives and plans to address the financial crisis. 


Article Ends

​Soon Link to PART 2



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