Don't WAIT!

Friday, February 5, 2016

Friday Mnt Goat Update - "Its Déjà vu - Again"  Part 2 of 2

Update: Economic Reforms

So we see Jubouri traveling to the USA to have a meeting with the VP.

I quote from the article – “during the meeting, in-depth research of the developments in the political situation in addition to the security situation”

I can assure you this meeting was mostly about the Chalibi files surrounding the corruption with the currency auctions, money laundering  and the corruption in the CBI. How will they handle the make-over of the CBI that is way over due?
Article Begins

IRAQI PARLIAMENT SPEAKER MEETS WITH BIDEN, A NUMBER OF POLITICAL AND SECURITY FILES      

Khandan - Search Iraqi Parliament Speaker Salim al-Jubouri, in the framework of his visit to the United States, with US Vice President a number of political and security files.

Jabouri's media office said in a statement, said the head of the House of Representatives met at the White House headquarters, Wednesday evening, US Vice President Joe Biden.

The statement said that "during the meeting, in-depth research of the developments in the political situation in addition to the security situation, especially with regard to countering terrorism and the importance of intensifying US support for Iraq in order to complete the liberation of Anbar and Ninevah start liberalization processes."

The meeting also discussed the "overall situation in the liberated areas and to continue efforts for reconstruction and rehabilitation and to support stability through a complete re-displaced people to it," according to the statement

Article Ends

In my news letter dated 2/3 (LINK),  I presented an article on the CBI and how they were offering to the banks 18% interest if citizens kept money in their bank accounts. We all thought that the 18% seemed very high and asked ourselves why would the CBI be doing this and why such a high rate. Certainly 2% or maybe even 4% would be an incentive enough,  so why 18%?

So truth be told… finally.
Now we know why the CBI was offering 18% interest on accounts left in the banks. Do you see now how one article connects with another from the past. Nothing just happens. There is always a reason for it.  See article below.

Looks like the CBI has their hands full to turn around this economy of Iraq. Where is Dr Shabibi when you need him….loo…lol…?

I quote from the article below – “The Finance Minister Hoshyar Zebari, had confirmed last month that the government may not be able to pay its employees with the holy month of April / April next, due to the oil crisis and the depletion of state resources by the war.”

By the way just in case you have not realized it the government’s ability to pay these salaries and pensions and pay them on time and on a regular schedule is one of the most significant factors in public confidence. It they really, really want to build up confidence in the banks they will have to concentrate more effort on payment of this money on time. Then we can see everything else will fall into place. Let me explain to you why I believe tis to be the case.

What the citizens really need is confidence in the government to pay its debts and manage the banking system. 

In the past I have showed you what will trigger Iraq to pop out any significant increase in value of its currency. I told you that the RV would be a by-product of Iraq being almost forced to go global to be able to appropriately trade thus ability of ease to pay foreign investors for both goods and services. Moving from a “closed” economy to a “global” economy would force their hand to move from Article 14 to Article 8 of the UN charter as a member nation.

If the people had confidence in the banks and kept their money in the banks, then the banks would have more money thus more liquidity and more money to loan out. With more loans there would be more investments. More investments would push the envelope to move towards a global economy (a market economy).

If you no longer have a need for the currency auctions (thus eliminate more corruption) they go away since you can now pay foreign investors with Iraqi dinar instead of  US dollars. THIS IS THE KEY.

The key is NOT to watch for the Iraq dinar value to rise (good luck with that!) but to watch for efforts to move from their closed economy to a global market economy. The rising of the dinar value is only a byproduct of the process and I have said this to you many times already.  The RV comes later only once the economy adjust for inflation (1:1 par with USD). 

It is the necessity to go global and move from a “closed” economy to a “market” economy. Again this is the KEY. Get it now? We are  now watching for the dinar to rise in value as you would a stock on the NYSE. So once they decide to move to Article 8 we watch for them to put the dinar on a float. Once the currency is on the global exchanges the rate will then settle to the market value (with spikes in between). This process has nothing to do with any other nations “signing off” or China approval or any of these other idiotic news you are hearing. Instead it is simply when the PTB including the IMF, WTO and the USA feel Iraq is ready they will move in this direction. How do we know when Iraq will be ready?

READ THE ARTICLES! THEY ARE TELLING US!

Just as I have been passing the news on to you in my news letters.  I have told you what we are waiting for. It is like we all are waiting at a train station for our train to arrive. But where is it? They told us which train (what events are needed) they told us the track number (where to look) but they have not yet told us fully the arrival time of the train (but they will). Actually they have in the past but they always seem to postpone it. So here we wait and watch for the train and a new arrival time. 

It is all a cycle but you have to start somewhere. I think perhaps the CBI management just does not know where to begin or is placing the emphasis on the wrong issues to start the needed cycle. Or perhaps it’s the war with ISIS that is sucking up their money. Perhaps once this final battle with ISIS is over things will begin to turnaround.  Perhaps this is what we have to wait for. Can you now understand why finishing up with ISIS is important? Once this is completed then they can manage more effectively and give us a more accurate time table for our train…lol…

So now based on what I presented to you TODAY we must ask ourselves this question AT THIS POINT IN TIME. Do you think foreign investors would want to flock into Iraq AT THIS POINT IN TIME?

I am not saying that this situation can’t be fixed and in a relatively short period of time perhaps once ISIS is done. But who is going to fix it? We all know how inept the CBI is with it’s current makeup of leadership. Something has to be done.

I have been making a case for restructuring of the CBI now for many months since my contact in the CBI has been telling me it’s coming..it’s coming. But like waiting for the “basket” of laws in parliament where also are  the CBI reforms? Again we are waiting for this train to arrive and we know there is some level of priority put on the tasks to which they chose to tackle and when they tackle them. Wish I had their list but I don’t.

Article Begins

IRAQIS ARE PULLING THEIR MONEY OUT OF BANKS FOR FEAR OF BANKRUPTCY      
Incoherence of Iraqi citizens on the Banks main government in Iraq to withdraw their deposits for fear of worsening of the financial crisis plaguing the country, with a hint officials not to the government's ability to pay dues and salaries of employees and retirees in the middle of this year.

The Finance Minister Hoshyar Zebari, had confirmed last month that the government may not be able to pay its employees with the holy month of April / April next, due to the oil crisis and the depletion of state resources by the war.

the banker said Hamed Ali: "after waving Iraqi officials recently against the state's ability to pay employees and pensioners in April / next April, the Iraqis began to withdraw their money from banks for fear of seizure by the state if the crisis worsened. " He explained that "the amounts drawn ranging from $ 100 thousand for the accounts of the millions in dollars and 20 million Iraqi dinars for the accounts of millions of Iraqi dinars."

Iraqis currently resort to save their money in their homes or converted to gold hard currencies for easy converted to banks in neighboring countries.

He said economists that Iqbal Iraqis to withdraw their money deposited in state banks comes to a lack of confidence in the government and the fear of the looting of their money if a major breakdown in the state happened. Experts said that the volume of private deposits in state banks could reach 40 trillion Iraqi dinars (about US $ 35 billion), a huge sum leads withdrawn the erosion of the banking system and exacerbate the country's crisis. The economist said Muwaffaq Mahmoud's "new Arab": "81.3% of the deposits are found in government banks worth more than 40.5 trillion dinars and the rest found in private banks, this represents a threat to the banking system."

Morteza Hasani, 51, a citizen believes that "the withdrawal of funds from the State-owned banks is an urgent necessity in the current circumstances, trust non-existent between the citizen and the government does not know what's in store for us the next few days", according to his words.

He said al-Hassani's "new Arab": "If you got an economic collapse it means the collapse of the state from where we will get our money deposited in state banks and even remained the state with the economic meltdown, it ensures that our money will not detain the State or will not be looted if I got a big mess in the country. "

This comes at a time when several Iraqi civil banks declared bankruptcy, because of the manipulation some money customers through trade real estate, raising fears of investors about their money.

The CBI had earlier announced its commitment to provide financial liquidity to domestic banks, which declared bankruptcy because of the acute shortage of foreign and national have currency, but the approach of government banks from bankruptcy is other than it complicated.

The number of the Iraqi government banks 6 banks are Mesopotamia, rational, socialist, and the bank's real estate and the agricultural Bank and the industrial Bank, while nearly 20 Iraqi banks, non-governmental prominent of these banks, the Middle East, investment and Baghdad.

Article Ends
Update: Fighting ISIS

Article Begins

THE IRAQI DEFENSE MINISTRY, ON WEDNESDAY,   THE ARRIVAL OF FIGHTER THE F-16 US TO IRAQ

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN)

"Arrived on Tuesday afternoon a new batch of aircraft the F16 to one of the Iraqi bases air, and was received by the commander of air force Lt. Gen. Anwar Hama Amin, this is the sequel to the series installment payments will arrive in Iraq in the near future update of the contract concluded between the Republic of Iraq and the United States later this year."

Article Ends

One more item today:

Let’s not forget to keep praying for the success of THESE IRAQI AND COALITION SOLDIERS. I believe our prayers are in part some of the acceleration of the process we are now witnessing. 

Remember too to pray to the princess of peace – Our Blessed Virgin Mary. She has the ear of Christ and she can intercede in heaven and bring us the peace we all desire here on earth. We can not do it alone. I believe that if we all make this our daily prayer you will see change. It is already working even in the short time since I have been publishing this prayer section. It does not matter what religion you believe, if you pray then to your oven beliefs entity it is still the same powers and good for all of mankind. Ultimately it is all the same God anyhow.

“Lord, protect Abadi and all who stand with him in righteousness, the Iraq and coalition soldiers who are fighting the good fight against terrorism, that they would be shielded from the enemy and would be victorious against them in the battle for Mosul! We ask that the victory comes swiftly and healing of the Iraqi peoples and all whom have been effected by these evil doers can begin!

We pray for the process of the currency reform, the full implementation of  the Iraqi economy to full  international status and the bringing of prosperity and wealth to its people“  Amen!

Till next time…. Auf Wiedersehen!

Peace and Luv To Ya All, 
Mnt Goat


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