KTFA:
66GTO: backdoc, MM or anybody can reply. Backdoc has touched on this but I want to make sure I'm thinking the right way. Lets say our fiat dollar devalues %50 and you owe the back $100,000.00 would that take the value of that loan down to $50,000.00?
Thanks for any response Gitty up GTO
BACKDOC: IT DEPENDS WHAT CURRENCY YOU PAY OFF THAT DEBT WITH! HEE HEE
Mountainman: So What You are saying is The PRINCIPLE of The LOAN REMAINS.......But The "PURCHASING POWER" from The OLD FIAT to a NEW MERCEDES is The "BIG DEAL".....???
....
66GTO: backdoc, MM or anybody can reply. Backdoc has touched on this but I want to make sure I'm thinking the right way. Lets say our fiat dollar devalues %50 and you owe the back $100,000.00 would that take the value of that loan down to $50,000.00?
Thanks for any response Gitty up GTO
BACKDOC: IT DEPENDS WHAT CURRENCY YOU PAY OFF THAT DEBT WITH! HEE HEE
Mountainman: So What You are saying is The PRINCIPLE of The LOAN REMAINS.......But The "PURCHASING POWER" from The OLD FIAT to a NEW MERCEDES is The "BIG DEAL".....???
....
NoKaOi: SOME ONE WROTE THAT IF YOU LOOK AT THE S&P500 A DOUBLE BOTTOM HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED. THE MONTHLY CHART ON THE S&P 500
MAY ALSO GIVE A MONTHLY HAMMER BOTTOM. THEY ALSO SAY THE TOP WILL BE IN 2017 FOR THE STOCK MARKET.
PERSONALLY I AM WAITING FOR DOW 20,000 THIS YEAR. THAT IS ALL I AM WAITING FOR ACCORDING TO KIM CLEMENT AND THE DINAR.
WE MAY SEE DOW 20,000 THIS YEAR AND IF NOTHING HAPPENS WHEN DOW HITS 20,000 THEN WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.
THEY ARE 99% SURE THE BOTTOM IN THE STOCK MARKET HAS OCCURRED.
ALOHA, NO KA OI
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BACKDOC: OF COURSE EVERYONE HAS A VALID OPINION AND I THANK BROTHER FRANK FOR OUR OPPORTUNITY TO SHARE THEM AND BE RESPECTFUL OF OTHERS!
I APPRECIATE YOUR INFO FOR SURE!
AS TRADERS SAY THATS WHAT MAKES A MARKET! HEE HEE
I'M LOOKING AT FUNDAMENTAL INDICATORS THAT ARE CERTAINLY NOT IN FAVOR OF A BULLISH MARKET.
ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATION THAT THE CHARTS DON'T CONSIDER IS : THE TRANSITION TO THE NEW REALITY WITH A HIGHER VALUED ASSET BACKED CURRENCY WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A REPRICING OF EQUITIES MUCH MUCH LOWER ONCE THE TRANSITION BEGINS!
TRADERS CAN'T RESPOND TO THIS YET BECAUSE THEY HAVENT BEEN INTRODUCED OFFICIALLY YET!
JUST SOME MORE THOUGHTS FOR US ALL TO CONSIDER. DOC IMO
Mountainman: Hey DOC.....Isn't That WHY???.....We SEE CHINA and Other MARKETS....Devaluing Because "EVERYTHING" Must reflect it's TRUE ASSET VALUES.....Thus THE NEW REALITY Will show As The MARKETS TRANSITION....... Which is WHY CHINA Lost 40%....IMO.....Meeting Out Their TRUE REALITY from THE Manipulated REALITY.....USA...same PROBLEM.....IMO
BACKDOC: WHAT WE SEE PRESENTLY IS THE OLD REALITY! FIAT!
WE NEED THE DIGITAL CURRENCIES TO BEGIN THEIR ENTRY, WHEN WE SEE THAT WE WILL ALSO SEE WHAT WE'VE BEEN LOOKING FOR! I'M DOUBTFUL THAT THIS WILL BE ANYTHING BUT SMOOTH.
THIS COULD EASILY TRIGGER A MASSIVE SELLOFF AS COMPANIES MOVE TO BECOME SECURITIZED!
AS COMPANIES ADJUST ASSET OR STOCK PRICES SHOULD BE 30 TO 50% LOWER BECAUSE THEY WILL BE ASSET BACKED!
HOPE THAT HELPS! RIGHT NOW WE ARE STILL FUNCTIONING IN THE NEW REALITY UNTIL THE GCR TRIGGER JUMPSTARTS THE GLOBAL NEW REALITY! DOC IMO
Mountainman: Sorry DOC......I wasn't Very CLEAR w/ what I was saying......CHINA is still REPRICING to their NEW REALITY as EVERYONE Will as The NEW SYSTEM is UNVEILED=TRANSITION....RIGHT NOW they are Moving thru the "PHASES"....UNTIL Things HIT......So as to NOT Create A GLOBAL HEART ATTACK....So to speak....LOL....IMO
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BACKDOC: IT'S NO WONDER THE G-20 IS SUPPOSED TO COME UP WITH A STIMULUS PLAN FOR THE GLOBE!
MAYBE THERE WILL BE SOME NEWLY VALUED CURRENCIES THAT FIND THEIR WAY INTO INVESTMENTS AROUND THE GLOBE SOON! DOC IMO
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
Recession sign is in play and has 81% accuracy
Since corporate profits turned negative in mid-2015, Wall Street has pondered whether it's just a passing phase or a signal of something worse. History strongly suggests the latter.
Recessions have followed consecutive quarters of earnings declines 81 percent of the time, according to an analysis from JPMorgan Chase strategists, who said they combed through 115 years of records for their findings.
The news gets worse: Of the remaining 19 percent of the time, recession was only avoided through either monetary or fiscal stimulus. With the Federal Reserve holding limited easing options and a deeply dysfunctional Washington thwarting a fiscal boost, the prospects for help are not good.
The warning comes amid a stock market hovering around correction territory and a mixed economic picture. Citigroup this week warned of escalating risks for a global recession, though data Thursday on durable goods orders suggested the manufacturing sector may be shaking off a contraction phase. Fed officials in recent days have been talking down recession risks.
"Absent a pickup in consumption and further weakening in the U.S. dollar, we continue to see rising risk of earnings recession in the U.S." JPMorgan's equity strategy team said in a note to clients.
Corporate earnings began to weaken significantly in the third quarter of 2015. The drop became more pronounced in the nearly completed fourth quarter reporting season, which is likely to see a drop of 3.6 percent.
Worse, future estimates are declining, indicating the damage won't end until at least the third quarter of 2016. First-quarter profits are likely to fall 6.5 percent, while the second quarter is expected to show a 1.1 percent drop, according to FactSet. Sales already are well into recession territory, with four consecutive quarterly declines.
Despite the mounting problems, JPMorgan still only assigns a one-third chance of recession this year, though the probability seems to be rising. The firm said its Qualitative Macro Index measuring business conditions shows "a cycle that remains in contraction (weak and decelerating) over the coming months."
The index's reading is consistent with a bear market 64 percent of the time and has been below the current level just four times since 1980, each occasion signaling a recession. Those cycles also featured the Fed raising rates in the face of inflation — the central bank is currently in the early stages of what is expected to be a gradual tightening cycle — though the target funds rate was much higher, averaging 2.7 percent compared with the current 0.38 percent.
For investors, the ramifications are substantial.
A QMI at current levels has signaled a bear market 34 percent of the time. The four readings below generated average peak-to-trough plunges of 35 percent in the S&P 500.
As such, JPMorgan is advising significant shifts in positioning.
In what it calls a "fairly unique" backdrop, the firm is advocating a move to a balance between momentum and value, with a focus on emerging market and commodity-linked stocks, as well as multinationals and dividends. It is advising limited exposure to discretionary, tech and health care or at least moving toward "reasonably priced sub-industries."
"Absent a more material pickup in top-line growth or U.S. dollar weakening, margin compression is likely to intensify on sluggish productivity, tightening labor markets and rising wages, as well as increasing credit costs," the firm said in the note. "More so, at 6.6 years old the current cycle appears to be suffering from age-related degeneration."
http://ift.tt/20ZA7gh ... uracy.html
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Mountainman: REMEMBER One THING....WHEN "THEY" Make Major Changes.....the 12 have to SELL it to The MASSES as Well....Which is WHY....IMO...ALL these G20 Meetings are a "WAY" for Them to COOPERATE and CREATE STRATEGY thru MEDIA/Rhetoric etc.....to "CONDITION" Your Mind to ACCEPT the CHANGES...Ie....The NEW GLOBAL REALITY!!!!!!!!
BACKDOC: DANGER! DANGER! WILL ROBINSON! HEE HEE
WHAT HAVE WE BEEN SAYING? A BREXIT COULD TRIGGER WHETHER THE EUROZONE WOULD CONTINUE TO EXIST OR NOT!
SCOTLAND SAYS THEY WILL LEAVE FOR SURE IF THE BRITS LEAVE!
THE NUCLEAR AND MOST OF THE NAVY IS BASED THERE! DOC
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
UK's Osborne pushes G20 to warn against Brexit: FT
British finance minister George Osborne is pushing the Group of 20 leading economies to warn about the dangers of Britain leaving the European Union, the Financial Times reported on Thursday.
Osborne said he hoped G20 support for Britain staying in the EU would be an important outcome of a meeting on Friday and Saturday in Shanghai of finance ministers, the FT said, citing people close to the finance minister. (on.ft.com/1Oyl320)
Britain's finance ministry declined to comment.
Chinese officials expressed concerns about a "Brexit" in bilateral meetings with their British counterparts in Beijing on Wednesday, the FT said.
A G20 official, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said the prospect of Britain voting to leave the EU in a referendum on June 23 had been raised with Osborne by officials from other countries on the sidelines of the G20 meetings.
"We understand some countries are raising the issue with the Chancellor in bilateral meetings. If they are concerned, then it could end up in the communique, though this would be unusual and the British have not put it on the agenda," the official said.
The possibility that Britain might leave the EU has led to a sharp fall in sterling in recent weeks. Some economists say an 'out' vote could deliver a shock to the global economy, which is already struggling to grow quickly, because it would raise questions about the future of the bloc as a whole.
Prime Minister David Cameron is campaigning to keep Britain in the EU and has the support of London's financial district, major companies, much of the Labour Party, major trade unions, international allies and Scottish nationalists.
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde, in an interview with CNN Money on Wednesday, warned Britain against Brexit. She said trade and financial ties, and migration between the UK and Europe have boosted growth.
http://ift.tt/1S655Di ... SKCN0VY2Y9
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BACKDOC: UNTIL WE LEAVE THE FIAT WORLD WHICH WE ALL BELIEVE WILL BE SOON CHINA IS A VERY HUGE RISK FACTOR SINCE THEIR COMPANIES HOLD THE HIGHEST DEBT LOAD IN THE WORLD.
JUST HOW THEY TRANSITION TO THE NEW ASSET BACKED SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE HISTORICAL HOWEVER IT PLAYS OUT!
IT WILL BE LIKE A RIPPLE IN A POND ONCE IT BEGINS, OR WILL IT BE A SUNAMI? MMMM DOC IMO
Mountainman: OK.....So HINT.....As The NEW VALUES come Into PLAY=2016....IMO........CHINA'S Economy will "GROW"...Not SHRINK....Ok Got It!!!!!!!!.....LOL
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
China capital outflows pose risk to global growth: IMF chief
Large capital outflows from China pose risks to the global economy, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said on Friday, as Beijing grapples with the country's slowest growth in 25 years.
Lagarde, speaking in Shanghai at the opening of a G20 meeting of central bank governors and finance ministers, also forecast economic growth of 6.3 percent for China in 2016.
http://ift.tt/1VGRdOJ ... SKCN0VZ0A8
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BACKDOC: CLEARLY, CHINA IS NOT ON STABLE FOOTING.
THEY TALK HERE OF ECONOMIC AND STRUCTURAL IMBALANCES THAT EXIST!
IN ADDITION TO THOSE CHALLENGES THERE IS CONCERN OVER THEIR DEBT RIDDEN COMPANIES AS I TOLD YOU ABOUT! THEY REFER TO IT AS A DEBT FUELD INVESTMENT! I CALL IT AN ACCIDENT WAITING TO HAPPEN! DOC IMO
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
China central bank head says country has more room to support economy
Chinese policymakers told global financial leaders on Friday the world's second-largest economy remains on a sound footing, while also seeking to manage expectations around the pace of economic reforms in the country.
Speaking at the G20 meeting of central bank governors and finance ministers kicked off in Shanghai, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan sent a message of confidence and repeated earlier reassurances the country would not stage another devaluation of its currency to support the economy.
The latest economic data shows positive signs for China's growth prospects in 2016, and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) still has room and tools in its monetary policy to deal with potential downside risks to its economy, Zhou told a conference held by the Institute of International Finance in conjunction with the G20 meeting.
At the same time, policy makers need to strike a balance between growth, restructuring and managing risks to the economy.
"While the reform direction is clear, managing the reform pace will need windows (of opportunity) and conditions...The pace will vary, but the reform will be set to continue and the direction is not changed," Zhou said in English.
Global financial policymakers gathered in Shanghai are watching closely for signs that China is ready to tackle economic imbalances they see standing in the way of getting China's economy onto more sustainable footing.
Speaking at the opening of the G20 meeting, International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde said China faces an "overwhelming" agenda of structural reforms, reinforcing the large task ahead as its leaders seek to open up the financial sector and move the economy away from debt-fueled investment.
Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei also called for G20 countries to work together more on economic policy and to further reduce barriers to cross-border trade and business.
The world's financial leaders meeting in Shanghai will discuss ways to calm global markets and spur economic growth, and are likely to declare their readiness to take action if conditions worsen.
China's central bank reiterated assurances made on Thursday that it will not use currency depreciation to boost exports, and that it intends to keep the yuan basically stable against a basket of currencies.
The statement followed an admonition from U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew in an interview with the Wall Street Journal to refrain from another sharp devaluation to the exchange rate like the one engineered in August.
Lew also called on China to communicate its policy intentions "clearly publicly or it will be interpreted for you".
Zhou said he was not worried about China's external payments situations despite recent falls in its foreign exchange reserves, and that fluctuations in the reserves are normal. He added that China's fiscal policy would be more proactive.
However, beyond the focus on China, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble struck a more pessimistic tone, saying room for monetary and fiscal policy in Europe has been exhausted.
Speaking at the conference, Schaeuble stressed it was necessary to continue with financial regulation, implement structural reforms, and to make markets less volatile.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is also scheduled to speak on Friday.
A report published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday called for a coordinated stimulus program to support a slowing global economy.
An official with a European delegation to the G20 earlier in the week said policymakers recognize elevated risks and will express the need for coordinated action in their joint communique at the summit.
"There is general agreement that should the situation worsen considerably, there needs to be a discussion on what should we do collectively or in a coordinated manner, but this is not what we would do today," the official said.
G20 financial leaders are likely to push for better implementation of the already agreed reforms and an assessment of where implementation is lacking and why.
http://ift.tt/20ZA7gp ... onomy.html
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Mountainman: RUSSIA says....No WORRIES.....The NEW SILK ROAD/GOLDEN TRIANGLE will Move Us FORWARD......IMO
BACKDOC: WITH THESE GOLD BACKED BONDS ABOUT TO SURFACE, NO DOUBT THEY WOULD BE LUCRATIVE!
THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE (RUSSIA,CHINA,AND IRAN) WILL PUT A HURT ON THE DOLLAR HERE AS THEY LEAD THE WAY INTO THE SECURITIZED DIGITAL WORLD!
THE U.S. IS REALLY WORKING HARD FOR AMERICAN INVESTORS TO KEEP FROM INVESTING IN IRAN AND RUSSIA BY KEEPING THESE SANCTIONS ON!
INTERESTING THAT WE ARE THE ONLY COUNTRY THAT IS DOING SO!
IS THIS ABOUT SERIOUS REALITY OR IS THE US PROTECTING ITS CURRENCY? MMMM DOC IMO
Thunderhawk: U.S. Warns Banks Off Russian Bonds
The U.S. government has warned some top U.S. banks not to bid on a potentially lucrative but politically risky Russian bond deal, saying it would undermine international sanctions on Moscow, people familiar with the matter said.
The move, apparently the first of its kind since the sanctions went into effect, has sent Wall Street bankers scrambling to determine whether the opportunity for new business is worth the political downside of bucking the administration's warning. The rules don't explicitly prohibit banks from pursuing the business, but U.S. State Department officials hold the view that helping finance Russia would run counter to American foreign policy.
Russia plans to issue at least $3 billion of foreign bonds—its first international issue since the U.S. and its allies imposed sanctions in 2014 following Moscow's annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter.
So far, there is no consensus among the Wall Street firms about whether to move ahead. Some bank officials, including at Citigroup, say they won't participate. Other banks, including Goldman and J.P. Morgan, continue to weigh their options.
Officials at the State Department and Treasury Department issued the caution in response to questions from some of the banks about whether they were permitted to arrange a bond sale for Russia.
U.S. government officials say helping Russia finance its debt would run counter to the objectives of the sanctions.
"It is essential that private companies—in the U.S., EU and around the world—understand that Russia will remain a high-risk market so long as its actions to destabilize Ukraine continue," the State Department said in a statement to The Wall Street Journal. The State Department also warned of "reputational" risks of returning "to business as usual with Russia."
American banks had made inroads into the Russian market, setting up offices there and pitching for deals. Since 2002, U.S. banks have collectively captured roughly a quarter of annual Russian investment-banking revenue on average. In 2007, U.S. banks did nearly $630 million of more than $2 billion in investment-banking business in Russia, but that amount dropped to $26 million last year after the sanctions took effect.
J.P. Morgan has been among the more active U.S. banks in Russia, though its business in the country has always been a small part of the overall picture. In 2015, J.P. Morgan made more than any other U.S. bank in investment-banking revenue, though the amount was only $9 million, according to Dealogic.
Still, Russian business has mostly been at a standstill. Banks have cut the size of their staff in Moscow or closed operations in the past year.
Russia last issued foreign bonds in 2013, a record year with $11.4 billion in total, according to Dealogic data. Russian bonds have been strong performers. Last year, they delivered a total return of 21.1% for investors, making them one of the top performers among 65 emerging countries that J.P. Morgan tracks.
The Obama administration's guidance comes at a particularly sensitive time in U.S.-Russia relations due to the continuing civil war in Syria. The White House and Kremlin have closely cooperated in fashioning a cease-fire in Syria that is supposed to go into effect Saturday.
But U.S. officials are skeptical Russia is serious about enforcing an end to hostilities. Moscow has intensified military operations in Syria in recent weeks in a bid to strengthen President Bashar al-Assad, Russia's closest Middle East ally.
While the U.S. has applied sanctions against major Russian companies and individuals, it hasn't taken the more radical step of imposing broader sanctions on sectors of the Russian economy such as energy and banking, or blocked the entire government.
Some U.S. officials are pressing for Washington to impose new sanctions on Russia if it doesn't abide by the cease- fire agreement. The selective sanctions now in place have scared away Western investment banks anyway, as has the U.S. government's behind-the-scenes lobbying against doing business in Russia.
Moscow has seen a sharp deterioration in its fiscal health due to the sanctions and plummeting oil prices. The country has also been hit by high inflation and rising unemployment. The Kremlin is already considering cuts to some areas of the federal budget, which relies on oil and gas for half of its revenue.
Any debt arranged between the Russian government and U.S. financial-services firms wouldn't technically violate the U.S. sanctions. Executives at some of the banks, however, worry that if they participate in the current deal, Russia could then inject the funds into companies currently under sanctions. As a result, the banks could run the risk of inadvertently violating the sanctions in spirit.
Some bank officials believe they were invited to participate by the Russians partly because Moscow wanted to test this loophole, and it could turn into a foreign-policy debacle if Russia later says the sanctions are meaningless because Wall Street banks are still helping them indirectly.
The U.S. and European Union imposed sanctions on Russia in 2014 after it annexed Crimea and supported separatists in eastern Ukraine. U.S. and European investors are banned from buying new debt from several Russian companies that are under sanctions. Even for Russian companies that are free of sanctions, the cost of borrowing in foreign markets has been high.
The Russian bond deal will land at a time when fewer emerging-market countries are tapping international markets, given that the strong dollar and a sharp selloff in bonds from these countries have driven up borrowing costs. According to J.P. Morgan, developing countries are expected to raise $64.9 billion in 2016, a smaller funding need compared with the $82 billion raised by these countries last year.
http://ift.tt/1S6595M ... 0224-01433
MAY ALSO GIVE A MONTHLY HAMMER BOTTOM. THEY ALSO SAY THE TOP WILL BE IN 2017 FOR THE STOCK MARKET.
PERSONALLY I AM WAITING FOR DOW 20,000 THIS YEAR. THAT IS ALL I AM WAITING FOR ACCORDING TO KIM CLEMENT AND THE DINAR.
WE MAY SEE DOW 20,000 THIS YEAR AND IF NOTHING HAPPENS WHEN DOW HITS 20,000 THEN WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.
THEY ARE 99% SURE THE BOTTOM IN THE STOCK MARKET HAS OCCURRED.
ALOHA, NO KA OI
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BACKDOC: OF COURSE EVERYONE HAS A VALID OPINION AND I THANK BROTHER FRANK FOR OUR OPPORTUNITY TO SHARE THEM AND BE RESPECTFUL OF OTHERS!
I APPRECIATE YOUR INFO FOR SURE!
AS TRADERS SAY THATS WHAT MAKES A MARKET! HEE HEE
I'M LOOKING AT FUNDAMENTAL INDICATORS THAT ARE CERTAINLY NOT IN FAVOR OF A BULLISH MARKET.
ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATION THAT THE CHARTS DON'T CONSIDER IS : THE TRANSITION TO THE NEW REALITY WITH A HIGHER VALUED ASSET BACKED CURRENCY WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A REPRICING OF EQUITIES MUCH MUCH LOWER ONCE THE TRANSITION BEGINS!
TRADERS CAN'T RESPOND TO THIS YET BECAUSE THEY HAVENT BEEN INTRODUCED OFFICIALLY YET!
JUST SOME MORE THOUGHTS FOR US ALL TO CONSIDER. DOC IMO
Mountainman: Hey DOC.....Isn't That WHY???.....We SEE CHINA and Other MARKETS....Devaluing Because "EVERYTHING" Must reflect it's TRUE ASSET VALUES.....Thus THE NEW REALITY Will show As The MARKETS TRANSITION....... Which is WHY CHINA Lost 40%....IMO.....Meeting Out Their TRUE REALITY from THE Manipulated REALITY.....USA...same PROBLEM.....IMO
BACKDOC: WHAT WE SEE PRESENTLY IS THE OLD REALITY! FIAT!
WE NEED THE DIGITAL CURRENCIES TO BEGIN THEIR ENTRY, WHEN WE SEE THAT WE WILL ALSO SEE WHAT WE'VE BEEN LOOKING FOR! I'M DOUBTFUL THAT THIS WILL BE ANYTHING BUT SMOOTH.
THIS COULD EASILY TRIGGER A MASSIVE SELLOFF AS COMPANIES MOVE TO BECOME SECURITIZED!
AS COMPANIES ADJUST ASSET OR STOCK PRICES SHOULD BE 30 TO 50% LOWER BECAUSE THEY WILL BE ASSET BACKED!
HOPE THAT HELPS! RIGHT NOW WE ARE STILL FUNCTIONING IN THE NEW REALITY UNTIL THE GCR TRIGGER JUMPSTARTS THE GLOBAL NEW REALITY! DOC IMO
Mountainman: Sorry DOC......I wasn't Very CLEAR w/ what I was saying......CHINA is still REPRICING to their NEW REALITY as EVERYONE Will as The NEW SYSTEM is UNVEILED=TRANSITION....RIGHT NOW they are Moving thru the "PHASES"....UNTIL Things HIT......So as to NOT Create A GLOBAL HEART ATTACK....So to speak....LOL....IMO
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BACKDOC: IT'S NO WONDER THE G-20 IS SUPPOSED TO COME UP WITH A STIMULUS PLAN FOR THE GLOBE!
MAYBE THERE WILL BE SOME NEWLY VALUED CURRENCIES THAT FIND THEIR WAY INTO INVESTMENTS AROUND THE GLOBE SOON! DOC IMO
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
Recession sign is in play and has 81% accuracy
Since corporate profits turned negative in mid-2015, Wall Street has pondered whether it's just a passing phase or a signal of something worse. History strongly suggests the latter.
Recessions have followed consecutive quarters of earnings declines 81 percent of the time, according to an analysis from JPMorgan Chase strategists, who said they combed through 115 years of records for their findings.
The news gets worse: Of the remaining 19 percent of the time, recession was only avoided through either monetary or fiscal stimulus. With the Federal Reserve holding limited easing options and a deeply dysfunctional Washington thwarting a fiscal boost, the prospects for help are not good.
The warning comes amid a stock market hovering around correction territory and a mixed economic picture. Citigroup this week warned of escalating risks for a global recession, though data Thursday on durable goods orders suggested the manufacturing sector may be shaking off a contraction phase. Fed officials in recent days have been talking down recession risks.
"Absent a pickup in consumption and further weakening in the U.S. dollar, we continue to see rising risk of earnings recession in the U.S." JPMorgan's equity strategy team said in a note to clients.
Corporate earnings began to weaken significantly in the third quarter of 2015. The drop became more pronounced in the nearly completed fourth quarter reporting season, which is likely to see a drop of 3.6 percent.
Worse, future estimates are declining, indicating the damage won't end until at least the third quarter of 2016. First-quarter profits are likely to fall 6.5 percent, while the second quarter is expected to show a 1.1 percent drop, according to FactSet. Sales already are well into recession territory, with four consecutive quarterly declines.
Despite the mounting problems, JPMorgan still only assigns a one-third chance of recession this year, though the probability seems to be rising. The firm said its Qualitative Macro Index measuring business conditions shows "a cycle that remains in contraction (weak and decelerating) over the coming months."
The index's reading is consistent with a bear market 64 percent of the time and has been below the current level just four times since 1980, each occasion signaling a recession. Those cycles also featured the Fed raising rates in the face of inflation — the central bank is currently in the early stages of what is expected to be a gradual tightening cycle — though the target funds rate was much higher, averaging 2.7 percent compared with the current 0.38 percent.
For investors, the ramifications are substantial.
A QMI at current levels has signaled a bear market 34 percent of the time. The four readings below generated average peak-to-trough plunges of 35 percent in the S&P 500.
As such, JPMorgan is advising significant shifts in positioning.
In what it calls a "fairly unique" backdrop, the firm is advocating a move to a balance between momentum and value, with a focus on emerging market and commodity-linked stocks, as well as multinationals and dividends. It is advising limited exposure to discretionary, tech and health care or at least moving toward "reasonably priced sub-industries."
"Absent a more material pickup in top-line growth or U.S. dollar weakening, margin compression is likely to intensify on sluggish productivity, tightening labor markets and rising wages, as well as increasing credit costs," the firm said in the note. "More so, at 6.6 years old the current cycle appears to be suffering from age-related degeneration."
http://ift.tt/20ZA7gh ... uracy.html
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Mountainman: REMEMBER One THING....WHEN "THEY" Make Major Changes.....the 12 have to SELL it to The MASSES as Well....Which is WHY....IMO...ALL these G20 Meetings are a "WAY" for Them to COOPERATE and CREATE STRATEGY thru MEDIA/Rhetoric etc.....to "CONDITION" Your Mind to ACCEPT the CHANGES...Ie....The NEW GLOBAL REALITY!!!!!!!!
BACKDOC: DANGER! DANGER! WILL ROBINSON! HEE HEE
WHAT HAVE WE BEEN SAYING? A BREXIT COULD TRIGGER WHETHER THE EUROZONE WOULD CONTINUE TO EXIST OR NOT!
SCOTLAND SAYS THEY WILL LEAVE FOR SURE IF THE BRITS LEAVE!
THE NUCLEAR AND MOST OF THE NAVY IS BASED THERE! DOC
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
UK's Osborne pushes G20 to warn against Brexit: FT
British finance minister George Osborne is pushing the Group of 20 leading economies to warn about the dangers of Britain leaving the European Union, the Financial Times reported on Thursday.
Osborne said he hoped G20 support for Britain staying in the EU would be an important outcome of a meeting on Friday and Saturday in Shanghai of finance ministers, the FT said, citing people close to the finance minister. (on.ft.com/1Oyl320)
Britain's finance ministry declined to comment.
Chinese officials expressed concerns about a "Brexit" in bilateral meetings with their British counterparts in Beijing on Wednesday, the FT said.
A G20 official, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said the prospect of Britain voting to leave the EU in a referendum on June 23 had been raised with Osborne by officials from other countries on the sidelines of the G20 meetings.
"We understand some countries are raising the issue with the Chancellor in bilateral meetings. If they are concerned, then it could end up in the communique, though this would be unusual and the British have not put it on the agenda," the official said.
The possibility that Britain might leave the EU has led to a sharp fall in sterling in recent weeks. Some economists say an 'out' vote could deliver a shock to the global economy, which is already struggling to grow quickly, because it would raise questions about the future of the bloc as a whole.
Prime Minister David Cameron is campaigning to keep Britain in the EU and has the support of London's financial district, major companies, much of the Labour Party, major trade unions, international allies and Scottish nationalists.
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde, in an interview with CNN Money on Wednesday, warned Britain against Brexit. She said trade and financial ties, and migration between the UK and Europe have boosted growth.
http://ift.tt/1S655Di ... SKCN0VY2Y9
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BACKDOC: UNTIL WE LEAVE THE FIAT WORLD WHICH WE ALL BELIEVE WILL BE SOON CHINA IS A VERY HUGE RISK FACTOR SINCE THEIR COMPANIES HOLD THE HIGHEST DEBT LOAD IN THE WORLD.
JUST HOW THEY TRANSITION TO THE NEW ASSET BACKED SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE HISTORICAL HOWEVER IT PLAYS OUT!
IT WILL BE LIKE A RIPPLE IN A POND ONCE IT BEGINS, OR WILL IT BE A SUNAMI? MMMM DOC IMO
Mountainman: OK.....So HINT.....As The NEW VALUES come Into PLAY=2016....IMO........CHINA'S Economy will "GROW"...Not SHRINK....Ok Got It!!!!!!!!.....LOL
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
China capital outflows pose risk to global growth: IMF chief
Large capital outflows from China pose risks to the global economy, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said on Friday, as Beijing grapples with the country's slowest growth in 25 years.
Lagarde, speaking in Shanghai at the opening of a G20 meeting of central bank governors and finance ministers, also forecast economic growth of 6.3 percent for China in 2016.
http://ift.tt/1VGRdOJ ... SKCN0VZ0A8
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BACKDOC: CLEARLY, CHINA IS NOT ON STABLE FOOTING.
THEY TALK HERE OF ECONOMIC AND STRUCTURAL IMBALANCES THAT EXIST!
IN ADDITION TO THOSE CHALLENGES THERE IS CONCERN OVER THEIR DEBT RIDDEN COMPANIES AS I TOLD YOU ABOUT! THEY REFER TO IT AS A DEBT FUELD INVESTMENT! I CALL IT AN ACCIDENT WAITING TO HAPPEN! DOC IMO
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
China central bank head says country has more room to support economy
Chinese policymakers told global financial leaders on Friday the world's second-largest economy remains on a sound footing, while also seeking to manage expectations around the pace of economic reforms in the country.
Speaking at the G20 meeting of central bank governors and finance ministers kicked off in Shanghai, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan sent a message of confidence and repeated earlier reassurances the country would not stage another devaluation of its currency to support the economy.
The latest economic data shows positive signs for China's growth prospects in 2016, and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) still has room and tools in its monetary policy to deal with potential downside risks to its economy, Zhou told a conference held by the Institute of International Finance in conjunction with the G20 meeting.
At the same time, policy makers need to strike a balance between growth, restructuring and managing risks to the economy.
"While the reform direction is clear, managing the reform pace will need windows (of opportunity) and conditions...The pace will vary, but the reform will be set to continue and the direction is not changed," Zhou said in English.
Global financial policymakers gathered in Shanghai are watching closely for signs that China is ready to tackle economic imbalances they see standing in the way of getting China's economy onto more sustainable footing.
Speaking at the opening of the G20 meeting, International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde said China faces an "overwhelming" agenda of structural reforms, reinforcing the large task ahead as its leaders seek to open up the financial sector and move the economy away from debt-fueled investment.
Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei also called for G20 countries to work together more on economic policy and to further reduce barriers to cross-border trade and business.
The world's financial leaders meeting in Shanghai will discuss ways to calm global markets and spur economic growth, and are likely to declare their readiness to take action if conditions worsen.
China's central bank reiterated assurances made on Thursday that it will not use currency depreciation to boost exports, and that it intends to keep the yuan basically stable against a basket of currencies.
The statement followed an admonition from U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew in an interview with the Wall Street Journal to refrain from another sharp devaluation to the exchange rate like the one engineered in August.
Lew also called on China to communicate its policy intentions "clearly publicly or it will be interpreted for you".
Zhou said he was not worried about China's external payments situations despite recent falls in its foreign exchange reserves, and that fluctuations in the reserves are normal. He added that China's fiscal policy would be more proactive.
However, beyond the focus on China, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble struck a more pessimistic tone, saying room for monetary and fiscal policy in Europe has been exhausted.
Speaking at the conference, Schaeuble stressed it was necessary to continue with financial regulation, implement structural reforms, and to make markets less volatile.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is also scheduled to speak on Friday.
A report published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday called for a coordinated stimulus program to support a slowing global economy.
An official with a European delegation to the G20 earlier in the week said policymakers recognize elevated risks and will express the need for coordinated action in their joint communique at the summit.
"There is general agreement that should the situation worsen considerably, there needs to be a discussion on what should we do collectively or in a coordinated manner, but this is not what we would do today," the official said.
G20 financial leaders are likely to push for better implementation of the already agreed reforms and an assessment of where implementation is lacking and why.
http://ift.tt/20ZA7gp ... onomy.html
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Mountainman: RUSSIA says....No WORRIES.....The NEW SILK ROAD/GOLDEN TRIANGLE will Move Us FORWARD......IMO
BACKDOC: WITH THESE GOLD BACKED BONDS ABOUT TO SURFACE, NO DOUBT THEY WOULD BE LUCRATIVE!
THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE (RUSSIA,CHINA,AND IRAN) WILL PUT A HURT ON THE DOLLAR HERE AS THEY LEAD THE WAY INTO THE SECURITIZED DIGITAL WORLD!
THE U.S. IS REALLY WORKING HARD FOR AMERICAN INVESTORS TO KEEP FROM INVESTING IN IRAN AND RUSSIA BY KEEPING THESE SANCTIONS ON!
INTERESTING THAT WE ARE THE ONLY COUNTRY THAT IS DOING SO!
IS THIS ABOUT SERIOUS REALITY OR IS THE US PROTECTING ITS CURRENCY? MMMM DOC IMO
Thunderhawk: U.S. Warns Banks Off Russian Bonds
The U.S. government has warned some top U.S. banks not to bid on a potentially lucrative but politically risky Russian bond deal, saying it would undermine international sanctions on Moscow, people familiar with the matter said.
The move, apparently the first of its kind since the sanctions went into effect, has sent Wall Street bankers scrambling to determine whether the opportunity for new business is worth the political downside of bucking the administration's warning. The rules don't explicitly prohibit banks from pursuing the business, but U.S. State Department officials hold the view that helping finance Russia would run counter to American foreign policy.
Russia plans to issue at least $3 billion of foreign bonds—its first international issue since the U.S. and its allies imposed sanctions in 2014 following Moscow's annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter.
So far, there is no consensus among the Wall Street firms about whether to move ahead. Some bank officials, including at Citigroup, say they won't participate. Other banks, including Goldman and J.P. Morgan, continue to weigh their options.
Officials at the State Department and Treasury Department issued the caution in response to questions from some of the banks about whether they were permitted to arrange a bond sale for Russia.
U.S. government officials say helping Russia finance its debt would run counter to the objectives of the sanctions.
"It is essential that private companies—in the U.S., EU and around the world—understand that Russia will remain a high-risk market so long as its actions to destabilize Ukraine continue," the State Department said in a statement to The Wall Street Journal. The State Department also warned of "reputational" risks of returning "to business as usual with Russia."
American banks had made inroads into the Russian market, setting up offices there and pitching for deals. Since 2002, U.S. banks have collectively captured roughly a quarter of annual Russian investment-banking revenue on average. In 2007, U.S. banks did nearly $630 million of more than $2 billion in investment-banking business in Russia, but that amount dropped to $26 million last year after the sanctions took effect.
J.P. Morgan has been among the more active U.S. banks in Russia, though its business in the country has always been a small part of the overall picture. In 2015, J.P. Morgan made more than any other U.S. bank in investment-banking revenue, though the amount was only $9 million, according to Dealogic.
Still, Russian business has mostly been at a standstill. Banks have cut the size of their staff in Moscow or closed operations in the past year.
Russia last issued foreign bonds in 2013, a record year with $11.4 billion in total, according to Dealogic data. Russian bonds have been strong performers. Last year, they delivered a total return of 21.1% for investors, making them one of the top performers among 65 emerging countries that J.P. Morgan tracks.
The Obama administration's guidance comes at a particularly sensitive time in U.S.-Russia relations due to the continuing civil war in Syria. The White House and Kremlin have closely cooperated in fashioning a cease-fire in Syria that is supposed to go into effect Saturday.
But U.S. officials are skeptical Russia is serious about enforcing an end to hostilities. Moscow has intensified military operations in Syria in recent weeks in a bid to strengthen President Bashar al-Assad, Russia's closest Middle East ally.
While the U.S. has applied sanctions against major Russian companies and individuals, it hasn't taken the more radical step of imposing broader sanctions on sectors of the Russian economy such as energy and banking, or blocked the entire government.
Some U.S. officials are pressing for Washington to impose new sanctions on Russia if it doesn't abide by the cease- fire agreement. The selective sanctions now in place have scared away Western investment banks anyway, as has the U.S. government's behind-the-scenes lobbying against doing business in Russia.
Moscow has seen a sharp deterioration in its fiscal health due to the sanctions and plummeting oil prices. The country has also been hit by high inflation and rising unemployment. The Kremlin is already considering cuts to some areas of the federal budget, which relies on oil and gas for half of its revenue.
Any debt arranged between the Russian government and U.S. financial-services firms wouldn't technically violate the U.S. sanctions. Executives at some of the banks, however, worry that if they participate in the current deal, Russia could then inject the funds into companies currently under sanctions. As a result, the banks could run the risk of inadvertently violating the sanctions in spirit.
Some bank officials believe they were invited to participate by the Russians partly because Moscow wanted to test this loophole, and it could turn into a foreign-policy debacle if Russia later says the sanctions are meaningless because Wall Street banks are still helping them indirectly.
The U.S. and European Union imposed sanctions on Russia in 2014 after it annexed Crimea and supported separatists in eastern Ukraine. U.S. and European investors are banned from buying new debt from several Russian companies that are under sanctions. Even for Russian companies that are free of sanctions, the cost of borrowing in foreign markets has been high.
The Russian bond deal will land at a time when fewer emerging-market countries are tapping international markets, given that the strong dollar and a sharp selloff in bonds from these countries have driven up borrowing costs. According to J.P. Morgan, developing countries are expected to raise $64.9 billion in 2016, a smaller funding need compared with the $82 billion raised by these countries last year.
http://ift.tt/1S6595M ... 0224-01433
Mountainman: SOMEHOW....SOME WAY........The BREXIT will Pass....After All You did ALLOW the REFUGEES to Enter Your Country On PURPOSE/W/PURPOSE....Right???.....IMO
BACKDOC: WELL THUNDER, THE DEAL THEY PASS IF THEY PASS IT IS HARDLY EVEN A DEAL SO WHY WOULD THE PEOPLE WANT TO STAY IN?
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST COUNTRIES ARE ELIMINATING THE PURPOSE FOR THE SHENZENG BY PUTTING UP BORDERS AGAIN!
MMMM I GUESS THE MIGRANTS DID THEIR JOB DESTROYING THE VERY AGREEMENT THAT SUPPORTS THE EURO SINCE ITS ONLY A TREATY THAT BACKS THE CURRENCY!
LOOK FOR EVERY COUNTRY IN THE EUROZONE TO SAY I'M NOT PAYING TO BAIL OUT THE EUROZONE! WHAT WILL BE LEFT TO SUPPORT IT? THEREFORE, WHAT WILL BE LEFT TO GIVE THE EURO ITS VALUE? DOC IMO
Thunderhawk: Britain registers EU reform deal with the United Nations
Britain has registered David Cameron's reform deal to try to keep the UK in the European Union at the United Nations .
The world body's British ambassador Matthew Rycroft said that under the UN Charter, member states had to register treaty-level decisions.
"That puts beyond doubt that the deal that the Prime Minister agreed is legally binding and irreversible in international law," he said.
The agreement was key to Britain's announcement of a referendum on June 23 on whether it should remain in the EU or leave the 28-nation bloc.
Mr Cameron said the deal with the EU would give Britain more control over its future, lessen welfare payments to migrants, and protect the country from being absorbed into a feared European "superstate".
The referendum is expected to be hard-fought, especially because Mr Cameron's Conservative Party is divided and the "out" campaign has the support of popular London mayor Boris Johnson, a Conservative and possible future prime minister.
EU president Donald Tusk, who oversaw the deal Mr Cameron brokered with the 27 other EU leaders, insisted that an "out" vote in the British referendum would "change Europe forever. And it will be a change for the worse".
Mr Rycroft said there was an issue about when the agreement with the EU came into effect, because part of it applies only if Britain votes to remain in the EU.
"But officially it has entered into force now, and it has effect on June 23 if indeed the UK votes to remain in the EU," he said.
http://ift.tt/1S656XQ ... 84492.html
BACKDOC: WELL THUNDER, THE DEAL THEY PASS IF THEY PASS IT IS HARDLY EVEN A DEAL SO WHY WOULD THE PEOPLE WANT TO STAY IN?
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST COUNTRIES ARE ELIMINATING THE PURPOSE FOR THE SHENZENG BY PUTTING UP BORDERS AGAIN!
MMMM I GUESS THE MIGRANTS DID THEIR JOB DESTROYING THE VERY AGREEMENT THAT SUPPORTS THE EURO SINCE ITS ONLY A TREATY THAT BACKS THE CURRENCY!
LOOK FOR EVERY COUNTRY IN THE EUROZONE TO SAY I'M NOT PAYING TO BAIL OUT THE EUROZONE! WHAT WILL BE LEFT TO SUPPORT IT? THEREFORE, WHAT WILL BE LEFT TO GIVE THE EURO ITS VALUE? DOC IMO
Thunderhawk: Britain registers EU reform deal with the United Nations
Britain has registered David Cameron's reform deal to try to keep the UK in the European Union at the United Nations .
The world body's British ambassador Matthew Rycroft said that under the UN Charter, member states had to register treaty-level decisions.
"That puts beyond doubt that the deal that the Prime Minister agreed is legally binding and irreversible in international law," he said.
The agreement was key to Britain's announcement of a referendum on June 23 on whether it should remain in the EU or leave the 28-nation bloc.
Mr Cameron said the deal with the EU would give Britain more control over its future, lessen welfare payments to migrants, and protect the country from being absorbed into a feared European "superstate".
The referendum is expected to be hard-fought, especially because Mr Cameron's Conservative Party is divided and the "out" campaign has the support of popular London mayor Boris Johnson, a Conservative and possible future prime minister.
EU president Donald Tusk, who oversaw the deal Mr Cameron brokered with the 27 other EU leaders, insisted that an "out" vote in the British referendum would "change Europe forever. And it will be a change for the worse".
Mr Rycroft said there was an issue about when the agreement with the EU came into effect, because part of it applies only if Britain votes to remain in the EU.
"But officially it has entered into force now, and it has effect on June 23 if indeed the UK votes to remain in the EU," he said.
http://ift.tt/1S656XQ ... 84492.html
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