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Sunday, February 28, 2016

Dinar Updates Sunday AM Chat  2-28-16    Part 2 of 3

Post From Dinar Updates 2-28-16
Chat Room Excerpts & Highlights

Dinar Updates Sunday AM Chat  2-28-16    Part 2 of 3


Holly1 says to rcookie(     After a 2.2 per cent contraction in 2014 and estimated 0.3 per cent growth in 2015, real GDP growth will by our projection likely rise to an average of 6 per cent in 2016-2019, assuming the government's expansion of oil production proceeds as planned. In January 2016, Iraq's oil production had already reached 4.1 million barrels per day (bpd),
 
which was the target the government planned to achieve by the end of the 2016. This compares with targeted exports of 3.6 million bpd in 2016, up from 2.5 million bpd in 2014.
 
We think that Iraq's oil output could reach 5 million-5.5 million bpd by 2019 (with exports of about 4.5 million-5 million bpd). We think that Iraq's oil output could reach 5 million-5.5 million bpd by 2019 (with exports of about 4.5 million-5 million bpd). We expect domestic demand will remain weak for at least two years, owing to the war against IS, internally displaced populations, and general social uncertainty.
 ~~~
Holly1 says to rcookie(   The internal and external shocks--the IS conflict and sharply lower oil revenues--that Iraq has faced since 2014 have hurt public finances. We project the general government fiscal deficit will rise to 18 per cent of GDP in 2015 and 14 per cent of GDP in 2016 from a deficit of 5.5 per cent of GDP in 2014.
 
The widening deficit will result largely from falling oil revenues and high military and humanitarian expenditures. We think that the IMF's Staff-Monitored Program approved in December 2015, will help restore some order to public finances and pave the way to a possible IMF financing arrangement in 2016, which could include budgetary support.
 
Holly1 says to rcookie(   The drop in oil revenues is hurting the government's debt position. We understand that domestic issuance is the main funding source for the 2016 government financing requirement. We expect most of the debt will be taken up by Iraq's commercial banks, led by the two largest: Raffidain Bank and Rashid Bank.
 
We expect that the banks will fund these purchases by incremental deposit growth and by repurchase operations with the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI). In addition, the government has indicated it is planning external financing from the IMF, the World Bank, and bilateral creditors, as well as from a possible Eurobond offering.
 
We project that general government debt will average 78 per cent of GDP in 2016-2019, up from about 39 per cent of debt in 2014. Iraq's debt stock has benefited from an 80 per cent haircut that the government negotiated with its Paris Club creditors in 2003-2004.
 
Holly1 says to rcookie(    Iraq's current account has typically run a surplus thanks to the country's large oil exports. However, we expect the current account balance will turn to a deficit and remain in deficit until 2019 because of the sharp drop in the oil prices.
 
We forecast Iraq's current account deficit will average 5 per cent of GDP in 2016-2019, compared with an average surplus of 10 per cent of GDP in 2011-2014. We understand that the current account deficits will be financed by a substantial drawdown of official foreign exchange reserves, as well as external borrowing.
 
We forecast external debt, net of public and financial sector external assets, at about eight per cent of current account receipts during 2016-2019, and we estimate average gross external financing needs as a percentage of current account receipts and usable reserves at about 82 per cent.
 
Holly1 says to rcookie(    Inflation currently remains low, with consumer price inflation in the low single digits (approximately 2.2 per cent in 2014). We expect that the CBI will maintain the dinar peg to the U.S. dollar, albeit with minor fluctuations, unless financing conditions are more difficult than we currently expect.
 
While the peg has helped control inflation, it limits the CBI's monetary flexibility. Moreover, although the liabilities and guarantees of the domestic banks appear high compared with the fair value of their assets, we view financial sector stability as a secondary issue compared with the country's security and the consequences of negative terms of trade.
 
David[X25SNDAUGTUKHUQWI6BTABCMVI@yahoo..] says    US shale drilling yesterday news release that there was a a lot of fracking fluid released into a large California aquifer is another nail in the shale production.
 
Holly1 says to rcookie(   The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Iraq's large fiscal and external deficits will be financeable, and that its conflict with IS will be contained. It also incorporates our forecast of a return to strong growth from 2016 thanks to the increases we project in Iraqi oil production and oil exports.
 
David[X25SNDAUGTUKHUQWI6BTABCMVI@yahoo..] says(    Between Oklahoma earthquakes and groud water contamination plus high extraction cost will take enough production offline to get ME oil back to $40 plus
 
rcookie says(    THIS FROM THE REPORT HOLLY BROUGHT IN LST NIGHT AND DA58 TODAY.....
 
rcookie says(    TALKED ABOUT LAST NIGHT....ROLE AND PREAMBLE OF CENTRAL BANK...CURRENCY VALUE STABILITY.....STRATEGY OF CENTRAL FUNCTIONS....MANAGING THE ECONOMY...
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT...QUOTED 5 GOALS/5 YEAR PLAN...
 
COOPERATION WITH PRIVATE BANK ASSOCIATION TOWARD FOSTERING CONSUMER EDUCATION AND AWARENESS OF IMPORTANCE OF BANKING...
 
DEVELOPING BANKING SECTOR POLICIES & PRACTICES GEARED TO PRIVATE SECTOR BUSINESSES
 
COOPERATION BETWEEN CBI AND PRIVATE BANKS.....AND ACTIONS TOWARD ACHIEVING FINANCIAL STABILITY...ESTABLISHING A BASIS FOR EVALUATING ASSETS....
 
rcookie says(    READ THIS....
rcookie says(    pointing to the hiring of an international center to evaluate the banks in terms of the physical aspects, warning of the importance of protect the financial system , where it is exposed to crimes such as money laundering, referring to the exceptional effort in the preparation of money based laundering law on the basis of international standards to be acceptable at the international level.
 
sell the currency Keywords revealed the contract with the Office of international scrutiny to develop procedures for the sale of currency «dollar» to control on dollar cash flow, also pointed out that the central focus on the topic of financial inclusion for the positive role in the economic life,
 
referring to the quest to develop the financial sector and small and medium-sized projects that we will have an integrated legal framework,
David[X25SNDAUGTUKHUQWI6BTABCMVI@yahoo..] says(    Nice work Holly
 
rcookie says(    as well as work to stimulate Islamic banking field , which is expanding in Iraq. He said the establishment of guarantee deposits in the banking institution, as we are now close to passing a law it will pass in the House, pointing to the continuing efforts to develop a universal banking system ,
 
which represents a significant shift for the work of the central bank. That there was extensive discussion by the participants on the strategic challenges and implementation mechanisms, also answered questions Keywords on banks regarding strategy.
 
_firefly_ says to rcookie(   (y)
rcookie says(    29. The CBI will continue to implement reform measures to enhance the stability of the banking sector in Iraq which includes inter alia:
 
_firefly_ says to rcookie(    Why is the finance minister making decisions for the CBI !!!!!!!
 
David[X25SNDAUGTUKHUQWI6BTABCMVI@yahoo..] says(    Where does the CBI stand on dinar/$ auctions?
 
rcookie says(    Introducing the international bank account number (IBAN) system in Iraq;
Increasing the capital requirement of banks to ID 250 billion ($214 million), a level to which allprivate banks except one have increased their capital;
 
Contracting a consultant to assist the CBI in rating banks, whereby they rated 17 banks: threebanks were rated “satisfactory”, eight banks rated “fair” and six banks “marginal”;
 
Contacting a consultant to assist the CBI in upgrading the prudential regulations on “Liquidity” and “Capital Adequacy Ratio”;IRAQ
 
_firefly_ says to rcookie(    CBI is supposed to be a seperate entity from the government
jarhead says(    tels me they want to get rid of keywords :D
jarhead says(    tells
_firefly_ says to rcookie(   Interesting ..............
 
David[X25SNDAUGTUKHUQWI6BTABCMVI@yahoo..] says(    Dinar Tier 1 capital who cares?
 
rcookie says(    Working on reviewing and assessing CBI prudential regulations with the assistance of the IMF Middle East Technical Assistance Center (METAC);P
 
reparing a Deposit Insurance Scheme which stipulates the establishment of a corporation to be licensed by the CBI, of which banks will have the opportunity to take a share in the capital;
 
rcookie says(    Contracting a private firm to provide the CBI with a credit registry system for sharing information among banks on their common existing and potential borrowers;
 
Holly1 says to David[X25SNDAUGTUKHUQWI6BTABCMVI@yahoo..](    IMO.. only... cause what is said on the other side .... looking for 50 and higher in oil.and is expecting this in the second half... recall they also said a couple weeks ago the currency will be the strongest in the world .... IMO.... 3PLUS WHEN THEY ROCK THIS OUT ... ONLY MY OPINION
 
rcookie says(    Issuing a banking law for financial institutions offering Islamic services; and
 
rcookie says(    Penalizing financially and administratively banks and non-banks financial institutions for anynon-compliance with laws and regulations in force.
 
rcookie says(    THOSE ARE DIRECTLY FROM IMF LOI.....LOOK FAMILIAR?.......
 
David[X25SNDAUGTUKHUQWI6BTABCMVI@yahoo..] says to Holly1(    I think that is the natural out come but interesting that the banking sustems integrity is key to everything including WTO so to meet reserve /capital levels they need a currency or securities that have value. Not the case now.
 
clay01 says(    we wont see 50 for oil this year, unless OPEC agrees AND adheres to the agreement to cut production     clay01 says(   but they wont
 
Holly1 says to David[X25SNDAUGTUKHUQWI6BTABCMVI@yahoo..](     AND ALSO DOLLAR AND IRAQ DINAR .... MADE A COMMENT I READ A FEW DAYS AGO ...
 
FOR SECURITY REASONS HE CAN NOT SAY MUCH REGARDING EXCHANGE IN SO MANY WORDS .... WHEN HE WAS ASKED ..... :)
 
David[X25SNDAUGTUKHUQWI6BTABCMVI@yahoo..] says to Holly1(    Warren Buffet likes the US economy so the totally non consensus view is a commodity rally driven by DEMAND sounds crazy
 
Holly1 says to clay01(     IMO... I THINK WE WILL SEE IT .... :)
 
clay01 says(     to much supply this year
jarhead says(    agreed cushing OK is flooded and so is houston
 
clay01 says(  I work in this field, a lot of supply out there
jarhead says(    same here
clay01 says(    everywhere is flooded
 
David[X25SNDAUGTUKHUQWI6BTABCMVI@yahoo..] says to Holly1(    Seems to be but the volitility with compressed moves especially your business with the contango that could help upside pricing.
 
jarhead says(\    theyve stop building pipelines because theres nowhere to take it
love it 2 says to David[X25SNDAUGTUKHUQWI6BTABCMVI@yahoo..](     he may like it but seems Carl Ichan does not not see a bright future :(
 
Holly1 says to clay01(    THEY MAY BE WRONG ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WORLD BUT THEY DO EXPECT NOT MY WORDS .. BUT BY THE IRAQIS ..
 
jarhead says(    to da woodshed w ya holly :D
David[X25SNDAUGTUKHUQWI6BTABCMVI@yahoo..] says to Holly1(   Icahns stocks have all been dogs
jarhead says(  jk
love it 2 says to jarhead(    easy cowboy ...(lol)
Holly1 says to clay01(    HEY I JUST BRING WHAT I READ AND GIVE IT TO YOU .... (F)
jarhead says(    i know sweetie
 
love it 2 says to Holly1(    its all good...beats the funny papers :)
jarhead says(    amen
clay01 says(     l would love to see it back up to 50, cant look for it for a while
 
David[X25SNDAUGTUKHUQWI6BTABCMVI@yahoo..] says to Holly1(   The rating agencies are whimps they will do anything to avoid sub prime AAA ratings so they are starting to get the picture. 
rcookie says( HIRING INTERNATIONAL AUDITING STAFF TO EVALUATE BANKS PHYSICAL ASPECTS..
 
TO PROTECT FINANCIAL SYSTEM....INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS & LEVELS AGAINST MONEY LAUNDERING (INCLUDING AML) THROUGH CONTRACT WITH OFFICE OF INTERNATIONAL SCRUTINY...
 
TO DEVELOP PROCEDURES FOR SALE OF CURRENCY (DOLLAR)...AND CONTROL DOLLAR CASH FLOW....ALONG WITH ROLE IN DEVELOPING FINANCIAL INCLUSION IN ROLE OF FINANCIAL SECTOR SME'S....
 
clay01 says(    Holly lovve what you bring in, thanks for all you do :)
Holly1 says to clay01(    TY CLAY01:)
Holly1 says to rcookie(    :)
 
Holly1 says to rcookie(    HIRING INTERNATIONAL AUDITING STAFF TO EVALUATE BANKS PHYSICAL ASPECTS..TO PROTECT FINANCIAL SYSTEM....
 
INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS & LEVELS AGAINST MONEY LAUNDERING (INCLUDING AML) THROUGH CONTRACT WITH OFFICE OF INTERNATIONAL SCRUTINY...
 
TO DEVELOP PROCEDURES FOR SALE OF CURRENCY (DOLLAR)...AND CONTROL DOLLAR CASH FLOW....ALONG WITH ROLE IN DEVELOPING FINANCIAL INCLUSION IN ROLE OF FINANCIAL SECTOR SME'S....

Holly1 says to rcookie(    (v)
rcookie says to Holly1(   ROCKIN HOLLY!!!!
jeffusa says to Holly1(   there is an echo in chat?
 
Holly1 says to jeffusa(   AND THAT NEEDS TO BE HEARD (y)
 
Holly1 says to jeffusa(   HIRING INTERNATIONAL AUDITING STAFF TO EVALUATE BANKS PHYSICAL ASPECTS..TO PROTECT FINANCIAL SYSTEM....
 
INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS & LEVELS AGAINST MONEY LAUNDERING (INCLUDING AML) THROUGH CONTRACT WITH OFFICE OF INTERNATIONAL SCRUTINY...
 
TO DEVELOP PROCEDURES FOR SALE OF CURRENCY (DOLLAR)...AND CONTROL DOLLAR CASH FLOW....ALONG WITH ROLE IN DEVELOPING FINANCIAL INCLUSION IN ROLE OF FINANCIAL SECTOR SME'S....

Holly1 says to jeffusa(     (lol)
love it 2 says to jarhead(    have a great day :)
 
jeffusa says to Holly1(    my 41st wedding anniversary is Tuesday... can you and Rcookie make this happen?
jeffusa says to Holly1(    can't believe I got married at age 5

 
Comments may be made at the end of Part 3  Thank You  


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