Part 2
BACKDOC: THE BIGGEST OIL PRODUCERS WILL ADJUST QUICKLY BUT THERE WILL BE PAIN!
MASSIVE LAYOFFS ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY. BUDGETS WILL GET SLASHED!
THEY WILL SHRINK TO A MORE PROFITABLE MORE MANAGEABLE LEVEL! THEY WILL BEGIN TO MAKE THEIR REFINERIES MORE PROFITABLE!
THEY WILL JUST SHIFT TO THE AREA THEY CAN MAKE MORE MONEY. I GUESS THAT'S WHY WARREN BUFFET JUST BOUGHT A MASSIVE STAKE IN CONOCO PHILLIPS, A REFINER! DOC IMO
Thunderhawk: It's Financial "WAR" - Position and Power. What say you DOC?
ExxonMobil, Chevron Facing Cash Flow Problems From Oil Glut
Moody’s Investors Service has placed the US energy corporation Chevron on review for downgrade, and changed the outlook for the oil and gas corporation ExxonMobil to negative.
....
BACKDOC: THE BIGGEST OIL PRODUCERS WILL ADJUST QUICKLY BUT THERE WILL BE PAIN!
MASSIVE LAYOFFS ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY. BUDGETS WILL GET SLASHED!
THEY WILL SHRINK TO A MORE PROFITABLE MORE MANAGEABLE LEVEL! THEY WILL BEGIN TO MAKE THEIR REFINERIES MORE PROFITABLE!
THEY WILL JUST SHIFT TO THE AREA THEY CAN MAKE MORE MONEY. I GUESS THAT'S WHY WARREN BUFFET JUST BOUGHT A MASSIVE STAKE IN CONOCO PHILLIPS, A REFINER! DOC IMO
Thunderhawk: It's Financial "WAR" - Position and Power. What say you DOC?
ExxonMobil, Chevron Facing Cash Flow Problems From Oil Glut
Moody’s Investors Service has placed the US energy corporation Chevron on review for downgrade, and changed the outlook for the oil and gas corporation ExxonMobil to negative.
....
Moody’s Investors Service has placed the US energy corporation Chevron on review for downgrade, and changed the outlook for the oil and gas corporation ExxonMobil to negative, the rating agency’s Senior Vice President Pete Speer said in a press release.
"Despite sizable reductions in its 2016 capital budget, we expect that Chevron will have substantial negative free cash flow in 2016 and 2017 because of low oil prices," Speer stated on Thursday.
In a separate release, Speer pointed out that ExxonMobil is expected to experience cash flow difficulties too.
"While the company is cutting its capital spending and operating costs in response to lower commodity prices, this diminished level of capital reinvestment could adversely affect ExxonMobil's reserve replacement and production profile in the latter part of this decade," he explained.
Global oil prices plunged from $115 to less than $30 per barrel between June 2014 and January 2016, hitting their lowest levels since 2003, mostly because of prolonged global oversupply and sluggish demand.
Moody's argued that low oil and natural gas prices will persist for several years.
http://ift.tt/1Q84vlK ... -oil-glut/
************
Mountainman: We are in a "TIME" in "HISTORY" where ALL Countries "NEED" Each Other....Which is WHY???....ALL The RUNNING to Make These "TRADE AGREEMENTS"......W/Out which....your Country is Eating TOP RAMEN and Drinking KOOL AID.....LOL.......IMO
Thunderhawk: Greece, Italy to Strengthen Relationship with ASEAN
AKARTA, 25 February 2016 – Greece will work to strengthen its relations with ASEAN to tap the vast potentials both sides have to offer, said the new Ambassador of Greece to ASEAN, H.E. Georgios Dogoritis, during his presentation of Letter of Credence to H.E. Le Luong Minh, Secretary-General of ASEAN, at the latter’s office yesterday. Ambassador Dogoritis also said that Greece will promote cooperation with ASEAN within the ASEAN-EU dialogue framework.
Secretary-General Minh welcomed Ambassador Dogoritis and noted that ASEAN and Greece could further tap on each other’s potentials to promote substantial cooperation including in the fields of trade and investment. Secretary-General Minh and Ambassador Dogoritis discussed possible ways to further promote business-to-business cooperation. They also exchanged views on regional and international issues of common concerns.
In a separate occasion, the new Ambassador of the Italian Republic to ASEAN, H.E. Vittorio Sandalli, who presented his Letter of Credence to the Secretary-General of ASEAN, H.E. Le Luong Minh, said that Italy seeks to strengthen its relationship with ASEAN and its Member States. Ambassador Sandalli added that Italy would also promote cooperation between ASEAN and the EU.
Secretary-General Minh welcomed Ambassador Sandalli and noted the substantial economic relations between ASEAN and Italy, and the potentials to be further tapped and promoted. They also exchanged views on ways and means to further promote private sector engagement between both sides. Ambassador Sandalli recalled the establishment of an Italy-ASEAN forum/association which would serve as a platform to provide greater awareness for Italian private sector and businesses on the trade and investment opportunities in ASEAN. The announcement on the establishment of an Italy-ASEAN forum/association was made by H.E. Enrico Letta, former Prime Minister of Italy, who accompanied President Mattarella during the latter’s visit to the ASEAN Secretariat on 10 November 2015.
Secretary-General Minh told Ambassador Sandalli that the realisation of the ASEAN Community is significant as it signals to the rest of the world how far and how well the ASEAN Member States have achieved in coming together as one Community. It is a historic milestone for the region and a culmination of ASEAN’s resilience and dynamism throughout a journey that spans nearly half a century.
http://ift.tt/1Q84tKG ... ith-asean/
************
Mountainman: "HUNGER GAMES"....DOC......Well Let The "COMPETITION BEGIN".....Says AIIB and 56 other Countries.........IMO
Thunderhawk: Poland to invest hundreds of millions into AIIB
The Sejm has completed the first reading of a bill ratifying the creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). No MP declared any objections to the bill, paving the way for Poland to fully participate in its formation.
The Bank is a new Chinese initiative, designed to be an alternative for international financial institutions dominated by the USA, such as the IMF or the World Bank. It will simultaneously act as an engine for infrastructural investments and the economic development of China. Along with 56 other countries, Poland signed a deal on the June 29, 2015 declaring that it would engage in the bank’s creation.
Vice-minister of Foreign Affairs Katarzyna Kacprzyk told the members of the Sejm that “the decision to involve Poland in this undertaking was supported by a thorough analysis,” which showed that the deal would be beneficial for Poland. She also added that the establishment of the bank would help strengthen relations between China and Poland as well as other Asian countries, giving Polish businesses more opportunities to expand in those regions.
The AIIB’s capital is to amount to $100 billion; each individual country’s contribution will depend on its GDP and the purchasing power of its currency.
http://ift.tt/1Q84tKK ... into-aiib/
************
Mountainman: Well DOC....W/TRADE Windows TIGHTENING UP/TIMING.......The WORD(EXPEDITE)....Is SPEAKING VOLUMES......GET these DEALS In PLACE.....Something BIG is COMING and It's "NOT" A CIRCUS.....LOL.......IMO
BACKDOC: IT'S NO WONDER THE WORLD WILL TURN THEIR EYES TO THE MIDDLE EAST AND BE IN AWE!
BUSINESS IS ABOUT TO EXPLODE THERE AND WE ARE BLESSED TO BE PART OF THAT EXPERIENCE!
DOC IMO
BACKDOC: Iran, EurAsia discuss bilateral trade ties
Iranian Ambassador to Russia met EurAsia economic alliance's new trade minister discussed bilateral trade and economic ties.
Mehdi Sanayee and Veronica Nikishina underlined the need for broadening of bilateral ties between Iran and EurAsia.
Ms. Nikishina in a meeting with Sanayee pointed to Iran's role and status in the region, and called for the expansion of trade and economic relations as well as expediting the trend of singing of free trade agreement between Iran and the EurAsia economic alliance.
The EurAsia economic alliance is comprised of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia.
The commencement of EurAsia's economic alliance will create a big market within the regulations framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO) which in turn will improve trade exchanges among its members and provide the member-states with a lot of facilities.
http://ift.tt/1pcnCm0
************
Mountainman: Yes W/PROBLEMS w/RUSSIA/CRIMEA......EUROPE "NEEDS" IRAN'S PETROLEUM like A BABY "NEEDS" it's MOTHER'S MILK......Their "LIFE" Depends UPON It!!!!!!!!.......IMO......(8)......BTW.....Is GREECE Still BROKE.....Hmmm
BACKDOC: THIS SHOULD BE THE NAIL IN THE COFFIN AS TO IRAN, GREECE, AND ITALY WORKING TOGETHER FOR THE SILK ROAD AS WE HAVE BEEN TEACHING! DOC IMO
Thunderhawk: Iran may boost gas exports to Europe through Greece facilities
Greece is in preliminary talks with Iran to secure natural gas for local needs and provide a gateway for the Persian Gulf nation to supply fuel to other parts of Europe, Greek Energy Minister Panos Skourletis said on Thursday.
According to Bloomberg, Greece produces little oil and almost no gas, while Iran is a member of OPEC and holds gas reserves that BP Plc ranks as the world’s largest.
The countries agreed in January for Iran to supply crude to Hellenic Petroleum SA and buy oil products from the refiner.
That deal, possibly Iran’s first such agreement with a European company since the lifting of sanctions, opens the road to cooperation in the gas market too, Skourletis said in an interview in Athens.
“What’s sure is that Iran wants to start selling its natural gas in liquefied form using ships and is interested in Greece,” he said.
The Revythousa re-gasification terminal near Athens is one potential entry point for Iranian gas, and a planned facility at Alexandroupolis in the north of the country is another. Iran is interested in both sites “for exporting to Europe,” Skourletis said.
Iranian companies have expressed interest in participating with Depa, Greece’s state-run gas supplier, in a company that will build and run the planned floating LNG storage and re-gasification facility at Alexandroupolis, Skourletis said.
Expansion of the Revythousa gas-importing terminal will be completed in 2017, and with adequate investment, the plant could also send gas northward to other areas in Europe, he said.
Both facilities will be connected to two international pipeline systems, the planned Trans Adriatic Pipeline and Gas Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria links, Skourletis said.
The market test for the Interconnector pipeline, which will link the Greek and Bulgarian gas systems, is due to be finished this month.
http://ift.tt/1Q84tKM
************
BACKDOC: INTERESTING THAT INDIA JUST MAKES A BUNCH OF MONEY FROM A COUNTRY CURRENCIES REVALUING! HEE HEE
NO WONDER THEY WANT TO INVEST SOME OF THAT HARD EARNED, OR I MEAN REVALUED CURRENCY PROFIT INTO A SHIPPING GOLD MINE! WOW! DOC IMO
Thunderhawk: India to invest $150 million in Chabahar
Indian Prime Minister's Office announced that cabinet has approved a credit of 150 million dollars for development of strategic Port of Chabahar in Iran.
In a statement which was released here on Thursday by the office, it said that investment in Chabahar will prepare opportunities for Indian companies for more presence in the area and consolidation of India's stance in the region.
The statement added that the government cabinet has approved a credit line of $150 million for Iran to develop Chabahar Port.
Indian Minister of Shipping Nitin Gadkari and Iranian Minister of Road and Urban Development Abbas Akhundi signed an investment agreement for 75 million dollars to develop Chabahar Port on April in Tehran, but after 8 months, there was no action by India in this concern.
Following nuclear deal and implementation of JCPOA more than 50 delegations and economic and trade groups from different countries had visited Chabahar and considered its capacities and potentials.
India by investment in Chabahar may access to markets of Central Asia, Caucasus and Europe through north-south corridor.
http://ift.tt/1pcnCm2
************
Mountainman: Sheesh HAWK......to Hear that WORD.....(NEGOTIATING)......and TRUMP wasn't NEXT to it......WOW......LOL......EVERYONE GLOBALLY is Realizing HOW "IMPERATIVE" it is to MOVE w/IRAN for THEY Lead to A WALTZ down MEMORY LANE.....REAL SOON....IMO.....and ALL want to Make Sure they are "THERE" when The WEDDING CAKE is CUT.......LOL.......
Thunderhawk: Russia expresses readiness to grant financial facilities to Iran
Deputy Finance Minister of Russia Sergei Storchak expressed his country's readiness to grant financial facilities to Iran.
He said that legal arrangement of signed agreements is among remaining issues in this concern.
Energy Minister of Russia Alexander Novak, who is head of joint Economic Cooperation Commission of Russia and Iran, had recently declared that the Russian Bank of Vancha Economy is setting an agreement to lend two-billion-euro financial facilities to Iran.
He added that also an agreement to lend a five-billion-dollar public export loan to Iran is to set.
Iran and Russia are negotiating since several months ago for a five-billion-dollar loan to Iran.
http://ift.tt/1Q84tKQ
*************
BACKDOC: NEGOTIATING THE INTERESTS OF THE U.S. WHILE THE U.S. IS THE ONLY ONE STANDING WITH SANCTIONS! MMMM
ARE THE SWISS NEGOTIATING WITH RUSSIA FOR THE U.S. TOO? HEE HEE
I SAY THIS IS ALL ABOUT CURRENCY PROTECTION FOR THE U.S.!
BY KEEPING UP THE BAD BOY STORY IT KEEPS THE MOST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD WITH MONEY FROM INVESTING IN IRAN NOT TO MENTION RUSSIA!
REMEMBER THE SWISS WERE THE FIRST TO RELEASE SANCTIONS ON IRAN! DOC IMO
Thunderhawk: Hey DOC seems like they are playing both sides - Aren't they? MMMMMM
The US and Iran enemies? Yeah Right - Who do They think there kidding.We know from the get it was a charade all along - Ya'll better realize it too. Hawk IMO
Mountainman: Sheesh HAWK...........ALL I can say is........(8)BALL CORNER POCKET!!!!!!!!........You WIN........LOL.......IMO
Thunderhawk: Iran and the Swiss connection – a guide
Switzerland, like much of the rest of the world, has an eye on deepening its trade relations and other opportunities emerging from Iran’s newly open marketplace; but that’s where many of the comparisons end, because of a decades-long special relationship between the two countries.
Swiss President Johann Schneider-Ammann’s visit to Tehran this weekend comes at a special time, just after the implementation of a nuclear deal by six world powers aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting some of the international sanctions that have crippled its economy.
Here, swissinfo.ch explains some of the new opportunities emerging from Iran’s domestic market of almost 80 million people, but also some of the potential pitfalls in a theocratic Islamic republic. Excerpts.
What is the purpose of Schneider-Ammann’s visit?
The Swiss president joins a growing line of world leaders who are making a visit to Iran to size up the opportunities and send a message that encourages new investment. In late January, the Chinese president was the first to visit Tehran since the nuclear deal took effect.
The lifting of sanctions against Iran, plus the release of up to $100 billion (CHF100.5 billion) in frozen Iranian assets as part of the nuclear agreement, will help revitalize the Iranian economy. Schneider-Ammann, whose delegation will include several dozen handpicked Swiss business and academic leaders, also represents Switzerland’s growing portfolio of diplomatic responsibilities involving Iran.
What are those new diplomatic responsibilities?
Only this month Switzerland announced it has agreed to represent Saudi Arabia’s interests in Iran so that Iranians can continue to visit the kingdom. Switzerland separately offered to represent Iranian interests in Saudi Arabia, once the Swiss representation of Saudi Arabia is clearly established.
Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic ties with Iran in January after protesters outraged over the kingdom's execution of a prominent Shiite cleric set fire to the Saudi Embassy in Tehran and another diplomatic mission. The Swiss role would primarily be to facilitate visits by Iranian Muslims to Saudi Arabia for religious pilgrimages.
How big are the opportunities for Switzerland?
Iran has what the World Bank calls the second-largest economy in the Middle East and North Africa, after Saudi Arabia. Iran’s economic output was an estimated $406.3 billion and it had a population of 78.5 million in 2014.
Switzerland’s exports to Iran were worth CHF610 million ($630 million) in 2014 and could double or triple within a decade, says Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, or SECO. However, even a doubling or tripling would still only amount to about 1% of Swiss exports.
How big are the challenges?
Swiss direct investment in Iran has increased significantly in recent years; three Swiss-Iranian treaties already exist for investment protection, double taxation and aviation. The Swiss also play host to global governance in trade issues.
Partly because Switzerland is not a member of the European Union, Iran has used Switzerland as a hub – sometimes through hard-to-pin-down intermediaries – for procurement in oil and finance. Bureaucracy, money laundering and other corruption are widely cited obstacles. Switzerland’s financial centers and banks could run reputational risks trying to provide services in Iran.
Is there any “low-hanging fruit” to be found in Iran?
Manufacturers of Swiss watches and household goods, and some of Switzerland’s major industrial producers, such as Nestlé for food processing, Novartis and Roche for pharmaceuticals, and LafargeHolcim for construction materials, are global giants and could benefit from Iran’s consumers – which includes 55 million mobile phone subscribers, nearly the size of those in France or Britain.
Swiss companies that can provide improvements, high-tech or otherwise, in services, industry and agriculture are the most likely to benefit. More specifically, there are big possibilities in areas such as foods, sanitary products, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, insurance, banking and aviation.
Iran’s economy is dominated by its hydrocarbon, small-scale agriculture and services sectors. The breakdown is 45% on service; 44.5% on industry; and 10.5% on agriculture, according to SECO.
What about the oil and gas sector? Iran ranks second in the world in natural gas reserves and fourth in proven crude oil reserves. There also is a notable government presence in manufacturing and financial services. And some of the world’s biggest oil traders, such as Vitol, Glencore and Trafigura, are headquartered in Switzerland.
Those traders mostly ended their dealings in Iranian oil and refined products in the past four years after US and EU sanctions were put in place that prohibited dealing in Iranian crude. But with the lifting of many sanctions, Iran plans to begin selling 300,000 barrels of oil per day to the European market, and Glencore has become the first Western company to deal again in Iranian crude.
How competitive are the Swiss?
At a time when the global economy shows high volatility, Switzerland gets top marks for innovation, business sophistication and labor market efficiency out of 140 countries surveyed for the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report. Singapore, the United States, Germany and the Netherlands are next. But that’s more an index of industry on Swiss soil.
The Lausanne-based IMD business school’s annual competitiveness report, in which countries were assessed by 6,000 global executives, also gives the Swiss high marks. In 2014, Iranian and Swiss business leaders launched a chamber of commerce between the two countries. It has sponsored seminars for prospective businesses, including talk from officials in Swiss government and others in the private sector on the hurdles they face.
What’s the status of Swiss sanctions?
In January, Switzerland lifted some of its economic sanctions against Iran in keeping with the United Nations and European Union. The remaining restrictions are based on UN and EU measures to limit the arms trade and other equipment that could be used to repress society.
Others target nuclear goods and nuclear-related dual-use goods. There also are financial and travel restrictions for a limited number of people and firms, along with some that affect Iranian cargo aircraft.
Why do the Swiss have a special relationship?
For decades, there has been a steady stream of Swiss diplomacy, business and other shared interests with Iran. Switzerland has served as a bridge to Iran, which has played a role in helping to bring the gas-rich Middle Eastern regional power back into the fold of the international community.
Switzerland has represented the interests of the US in Iran since 1980, when Washington broke off formal relations with Tehran after a group of revolutionary Iranian students seized the US Embassy in Tehran and took 52 Americans hostage. Switzerland also has represented the interests of Iran in Egypt since the 1979 Iranian revolution against the country's hereditary ruler, the shah.
What’s behind the recent tensions?
Despite the nuclear deal calming the waters, in recent months there have been more provocations between Iran and the West. They reflect huge stakes behind the balance of Middle East power. US-Iran relations remain up in the air. In the absence of a US diplomatic mission, the Swiss Embassy in Tehran continues to provide consular services to American citizens living in or travelling to Iran.
Iran detained ten American sailors and aired a Revolutionary Guard video of them kneeling on the decks of their boats with their hands on their heads, before releasing them a day later. A Swiss-facilitated prisoner swap between the US and Iran brought the release of Washington Post correspondent Jason Rezaian and three other Americans in exchange for seven Iranians in US prisons.
Nuclear deal
Swiss-Iran trade relations stand to deepen in the wake of a nuclear deal reached earlier this year between the Islamic Republic and the United States, Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia.
The new deal seeks to curb Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions imposed by the UN, US and European Union, which have seriously hindered the state’s economic development.
The agreement with Iran concluded 12 years of negotiations, a number of which were held in the Swiss cities of Geneva and Lausanne. The Swiss have a particular interest in the Islamic Republic, having represented the interests of the US there for more than 35 years.
http://ift.tt/1pcnCm4
Mountainman: ??? KTFA FAMILY.......Are You SEEING HOW and WHY???......This is ALL About A NEW "GLOBAL" REVELATION/REBIRTH.......Not Just IRAQ Or IRAN.....But MANY.....
BACKDOC: I KNOW IT'S LATE BUT JUST STAY WITH ME THUNDER, THE MARKETS ARE OPEN IN THE EU!
SLAP! OK, NOW PAY ATTENTION. HEE HEE
DEFLATION FROM THE UNIVERSAL CURRENCY (OIL), IS NOW UNAVOIDABLE.
WHEN THIS HAPPENS THE CONCEPT OF VALUE WILL BE REDETERMINED!
SEEK AND YE SHALL FIND BROTHER.
THIS WILL BRING US THE GLOBAL REALITY VALUE THAT WE SEEK. ONCE WE GET THERE WE HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH DAMAGE IS DONE TO THE BIG BANKS OR IF THEY ARE STILL STANDING? THE BAILINS ARE READY TO GO IF NEED BE!
JUST BE CAREFUL AND KNOW YOUR EXIT BEFORE YOUR ENTRANCE ON YOUR CURRENCY SWAP! DOC
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
Opinion: ‘Smart-beta’ investing guru is now warning of a crash
Dump “quality” stocks and buy “value” stocks.
That’s the call from Rob Arnott, the legendary financial guru and chairman of Research Affiliates, an investment firm in Newport Beach, Calif.
He says stocks bearing high-quality characteristics — such as high profits, strong balance sheets and so on — have now become far too expensive in relation to the rest of the stock market.
Meanwhile, so-called “value” stocks — which generally mean boring companies that have low future growth prospects but are cheap in relation to current profits and dividends — are at one of their biggest discounts in modern history.
Arnott’s latest research is a salutary warning that smart beta, like anything, is subject to the laws of financial gravity, known in the trade as ‘mean reversion.’
Arnott’s call may be useful for investors looking to find the best bargains. But how he reaches this conclusion is equally fascinating.
The big trend in investing since the financial crisis has been the discovery of so-called “smart beta,” which means investing in stocks based on characteristics like low volatility, high quality and high momentum. A ton of academic research has found that such strategies would have earned you higher returns with lower risk over many decades if you had followed them.
As a result, there’s been a flood of mutual funds, exchange traded funds and institutional portfolios designed to help investors profit from the “alpha” of “smart beta” — which is Wall Street jargon for saying they hope to make you lots of money.
Arnott was among the pioneers of this research, and is one of the most respected names in finance. So why has he turned against it?
Simple. Smart beta has become so popular, it’s now dangerous, he says. Indeed, a “smart-beta crash” is now “reasonably likely,” he warns.
A stock is worth only the present value of its future cash flow, just as, say, investment property is worth only the present value of its future net rents.
The more you pay for the investment, the less a bargain it is. During a mania, a fad or a bubble, people end up paying too much. So even though the future cash flow (or net rents) flow through, the investor loses money.
Historically, you’ve done very well if you invested in the stocks of companies that had high business quality (such as high profits, low debts, stability and so on), and in stocks that had low volatility. You made more money, with less risk, over time. Hence the rise of “smart-beta” strategies that targeted such stocks.
But as more people discovered these phenomena, they joined in the demand for smart-beta stocks – and drove up the price. At some point, while the business remains one with high quality or low volatility, the stock itself ceases to be a bargain.
http://ift.tt/1L3bKqJ? ... c6f280bdbe
Thunderhawk: Good Night Frank - Family – Friends ENJOYED IT
Thanks for all you do MM
Your on FIRE brother DOC….THE MARCH TOWARDS MARCH CONTINUES
BACKDOC: THANKS THUNDER! START SPREADING THE NEWS! HEE HEE
GOD BLESS! TOMORROW IS THE REST OF THE STORY! DOC
BACKDOC: I KNOW IT'S LATE BUT JUST STAY WITH ME THUNDER, THE MARKETS ARE OPEN IN THE EU!
SLAP! OK, NOW PAY ATTENTION. HEE HEE
DEFLATION FROM THE UNIVERSAL CURRENCY (OIL), IS NOW UNAVOIDABLE.
WHEN THIS HAPPENS THE CONCEPT OF VALUE WILL BE REDETERMINED!
SEEK AND YE SHALL FIND BROTHER.
THIS WILL BRING US THE GLOBAL REALITY VALUE THAT WE SEEK. ONCE WE GET THERE WE HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH DAMAGE IS DONE TO THE BIG BANKS OR IF THEY ARE STILL STANDING? THE BAILINS ARE READY TO GO IF NEED BE!
JUST BE CAREFUL AND KNOW YOUR EXIT BEFORE YOUR ENTRANCE ON YOUR CURRENCY SWAP! DOC
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
Opinion: ‘Smart-beta’ investing guru is now warning of a crash
Dump “quality” stocks and buy “value” stocks.
That’s the call from Rob Arnott, the legendary financial guru and chairman of Research Affiliates, an investment firm in Newport Beach, Calif.
He says stocks bearing high-quality characteristics — such as high profits, strong balance sheets and so on — have now become far too expensive in relation to the rest of the stock market.
Meanwhile, so-called “value” stocks — which generally mean boring companies that have low future growth prospects but are cheap in relation to current profits and dividends — are at one of their biggest discounts in modern history.
Arnott’s latest research is a salutary warning that smart beta, like anything, is subject to the laws of financial gravity, known in the trade as ‘mean reversion.’
Arnott’s call may be useful for investors looking to find the best bargains. But how he reaches this conclusion is equally fascinating.
The big trend in investing since the financial crisis has been the discovery of so-called “smart beta,” which means investing in stocks based on characteristics like low volatility, high quality and high momentum. A ton of academic research has found that such strategies would have earned you higher returns with lower risk over many decades if you had followed them.
As a result, there’s been a flood of mutual funds, exchange traded funds and institutional portfolios designed to help investors profit from the “alpha” of “smart beta” — which is Wall Street jargon for saying they hope to make you lots of money.
Arnott was among the pioneers of this research, and is one of the most respected names in finance. So why has he turned against it?
Simple. Smart beta has become so popular, it’s now dangerous, he says. Indeed, a “smart-beta crash” is now “reasonably likely,” he warns.
A stock is worth only the present value of its future cash flow, just as, say, investment property is worth only the present value of its future net rents.
The more you pay for the investment, the less a bargain it is. During a mania, a fad or a bubble, people end up paying too much. So even though the future cash flow (or net rents) flow through, the investor loses money.
Historically, you’ve done very well if you invested in the stocks of companies that had high business quality (such as high profits, low debts, stability and so on), and in stocks that had low volatility. You made more money, with less risk, over time. Hence the rise of “smart-beta” strategies that targeted such stocks.
But as more people discovered these phenomena, they joined in the demand for smart-beta stocks – and drove up the price. At some point, while the business remains one with high quality or low volatility, the stock itself ceases to be a bargain.
http://ift.tt/1L3bKqJ? ... c6f280bdbe
Thunderhawk: Good Night Frank - Family – Friends ENJOYED IT
Thanks for all you do MM
Your on FIRE brother DOC….THE MARCH TOWARDS MARCH CONTINUES
BACKDOC: THANKS THUNDER! START SPREADING THE NEWS! HEE HEE
GOD BLESS! TOMORROW IS THE REST OF THE STORY! DOC
via Dinar Recaps - Our Blog http://ift.tt/1Q84u17
No comments:
Post a Comment