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Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Backdoc, Thunderhawk and Mountainman at KTFA: 2-16-16     Part 2

Part 2

BACKDOC:   RECENTLY WE SAW CANADA SELLING GOLD AND HERE WE SEE THEM WORKING IN A SIGNIFICANT ROLE TO HELP IRAQ!

WHAT DO YOU THINK THEY GET IN RETURN? HEE HEE   DOC

Thunderhawk:   Is Canada training a separatist army in Iraq?

By Levon Sevunts | Sunday 14 February, 2016

In the millennia-old history of Kurds, there has never been a time when this ancient people of the Middle East were so tantalisingly close to statehood.

And if in the next few years, the Kurds do manage to bridge their political, tribal, religious and cultural differences, and declare statehood in their ancient homeland in northern Iraq, they’ll owe a small debt of gratitude to Canada.
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That’s because whether Ottawa likes it or not, Canada’s elite special forces have been training the nucleus of what is likely to become the army of independent Kurdistan.

And with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s newly announced plan to triple the number of Canadian special forces advisers and to equip the Kurdish peshmerga fighters with light arms, the future Kurdish army will not only be one of the best fighting forces in the region but will also likely sport Canadian-made assault rifles, machine guns and light mortars.

The irony, of course, is that neither Canada nor its Western allies want the Kurds to secede from Iraq, says Michael Bell, a four-time Canadian ambassador in the Middle East and Paul Martin (Sr.) Senior Scholar in International Diplomacy at University of Windsor.

But the resolution of the broader problem of Iraqi unity has taken second place to the urgent need to confront the so-called Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), says Bell.
Effective ground force

The Kurds have proven to be the most effective ground force confronting ISIS in Iraq and in Syria, and it makes sense to support them in the campaign against ISIS, says Bell.

The Western strategy of dealing with ISIS is to use the Kurds as a ground fighting force while the U.S.-led alliance uses its overwhelming air power to debilitate ISIS to a point when it will be difficult for its supporters to equate it with the Islamic caliphate in the heart of the Middle East that ISIS leadership has been pushing for.

In Western calculations, ISIS with its drive to carve out a Sunni Islamist proto-state from Iraq and Syria poses a much greater threat than any eventual Kurdish independent state in northern Iraq.

The allies would prefer a united Iraq with a confederated system that allows the Kurds to exist in a quasi-independent state without actually declaring de jure independence. The problem is the Sunni population of Iraq is alienated from the Shia-dominated government in Baghdad, says Bell.

The government in Baghdad represents the interests of the Shia majority and Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi is in a very weak position, says Bell. Al-Abadi is under tremendous pressure from Iranians who control what the government does, he says.

“What Iran doesn’t want, won’t happen,” Bell says.

With the ongoing sectarian tensions between Sunnis and Shias throughout the Middle East their peaceful coexistence in unified Iraq will be very difficult if not impossible.

Even with ISIS severely degraded, Iraq faces the possibility of breaking up into three entities: a Sunni part, a Shia part and a Kurdish state.
Eye on Mosul

Moreover, even the operation to retake Mosul from ISIS could accelerate a Kurdish drive for independence.

The Kurds have for years yearned for control of Iraq’s second-largest city, which they claim is part of the Kurdish homeland along with the oil-rich city of Kirkuk.

They managed to get a foothold in Kirkuk and its vast oil fields following the spectacular collapse of Iraqi forces in the face of a rapid advance by ISIS militants in June of 2014. Now, they share an uneasy cohabitation with Shia militias sent to the city by the government in Baghdad to prevent it from falling under full Kurdish control.

Despite their successful operation to recapture Ramadi, Iraqi security forces will need the help of Kurdish peshmerga fighters if they ever hope to recapture Mosul, a city ten times larger than Ramadi.

Leaked U.S. plans to recapture Mosul last year suggested that a force of at least 25,000 fighters strong was needed to take the city of 1.5 million inhabitants. The plans called for five Iraqi army brigades and three Kurdish brigades to work together to liberate the city.

About 65 per cent of Mosul’s population are Sunni Arabs, and the city has significant Turkoman and Kurdish minorities, especially in its eastern quarters.

Mosul’s multicultural mosaic, just like that of Kirkuk, is rife for interethnic conflict. Neither Mosul’s Arabs nor Turkomans are likely to be very welcoming of Kurdish forces. Even if the attacking forces manage to capture Mosul in one swift blow, the city runs the risk of being turned into Beirut or Tripoli-like fiefdoms controlled by various factions, with simmering tensions rippling through the rest of the fragile relationship between Baghdad and Kurdish leadership in Irbil.

Heavy losses and an inconclusive operation to recapture Mosul from ISIS could also spur Kurdish President Masoud Barzani to seek formal independence to deflect public attention from the growing economic crisis to due to falling oil prices and internal political challenges.
Training ‘separatist army’

In any case, it seems Canadian special forces soldiers are going to play a key role in training Kurdish fighters for the operation in Mosul, according to U.S. military officials.

Speaking to reporters from Brussels on Thursday, Canada’s Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan said U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland commended Canada for being “very forward looking” in its approach to tripling the number of Canadian special forces trainers in northern Iraq and expanding its intelligence capabilities.

MacFarland told him those expanded intelligence capabilities were what he needed to refine his plan to retake Mosul from ISIS, as well as having the Canadian trainers conduct training tailored for the operation, Sajjan said.

“Ther is an irony in that we and other are investing in the peshmerga and are actually aiding a separatist army,” says Bell. “But at this point, there is no alternative to that.”

Bell says the United States and its allies including Canada are putting tremendous diplomatic pressure on Barzani to persuade him not pursue full independence, that the Kurds will be better off with very wide autonomy inside a unified Iraq without the trappings of an independent state.

“Canada is committed to the unity and territorial integrity of the Republic of Iraq,” Tania Assaly, a spokesperson for Global Affairs Canada, said in a statement. “This position is well known to our Iraqi interlocutors, including in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region.”

Canadian officials are in close contact with the Iraqi authorities on the implementation of Ottawa’s new strategy, which will be carried out with the full consent of the Iraqi government, Assaly said.

For now, it appears Iraqi officials in Baghdad are happy with Canada’s role, but it remains to be seen whether their calculations change.....

(read more at link)

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Thunderhawk:  Backdoc alert

PBOC's Zhou Breaks His Long Silence

China’s central bank has stepped up efforts to restore stability to the nation’s currency and economy, with Governor Zhou Xiaochuan breaking his long silence to argue there’s no basis for continued yuan depreciation.

The nation’s balance of payments is good, capital outflows are normal and the exchange rate is basically stable against a basket of currencies, Zhou said in an interview published Saturday in Caixin magazine. That’s an escalation in verbal support after such comments have been left in recent months to deputies and the central bank research department’s chief economist.

Zhou dismissed speculation that China plans to tighten capital controls and said there’s no need to worry about a short-term decline in foreign-exchange reserves. The country has ample holdings for payments and to defend stability, he said.

"He’s desperately trying to make sure that all of his work in the past few years on capital liberalization does not go to waste," said Victor Shih, a professor at the University of California at San Diego who studies China’s politics and finance. "He’s trying hard to instill investor confidence in the renminbi so that the Chinese government does not have to resort to the extreme measure of unwinding all of the progress on offshore renminbi in the past few years."

The comments come as Chinese financial markets prepare to reopen Monday after the week-long Lunar New Year holiday. The weakening exchange rate and declining Chinese share markets have fueled global turmoil and helped send world stocks to their lowest levels in more than two years.
The People’s Bank of China set the daily fixing against the dollar, which restricts onshore moves to a maximum 2 percent on either side, 0.3 percent higher at 6.5118, the strongest since Jan. 4. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2.3 percent as of 9:39 a.m. local time.

Ample Liquidity

Lost amid the angst over China’s stocks, currency and sliding foreign exchange reserves is the flush liquidity situation at home. The People’s Bank of China has been putting its money where its mouth is, pumping cash into the financial system to offset record capital outflows amid fears the yuan could weaken further.

Data that could come as soon as Monday is expected to show China’s broadest measure of new credit surged in January on a seasonal uptick in lending, and as companies borrowed to pay off foreign debt. Aggregate financing likely grew 2.2 trillion yuan ($335 billion), according to the median forecast of a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Bloomberg’s China Monetary Conditions Index, a gauge that includes inflation-adjusted interest rates and the exchange rate, has been improving since June. Past episodes of improvement have presaged either an acceleration in economic growth, or a stabilization.

Even as foreign exchange reserves have declined since mid 2014 -- to a four-year low of $3.23 trillion in January -- M1 money supply has continued to rise.

Cash Injections

The central bank has turned to cash injections instead of cutting benchmark interest rates, as cuts could further exacerbate capital outflows. Net injections have totaled more than 1 trillion yuan since mid-January, or about the same as a 1 percentage point cut to banks’ required reserve ratios -- the traditional way to boost liquidity. The difference is that injections are temporary and can be scaled back if policy makers don’t roll over lending facilities, whereas a RRR cut is more permanent.

"The actions taken already arguably have taken away the need for an immediate ‘announcement event’ of a reserve ratio cut, which could have hit sentiment towards the yuan further," said David Mann, chief Asia economist at Standard Chartered Plc.

China has no incentive to depreciate the currency to boost net exports, and there’s no direct link between the nation’s gross domestic product and its exchange rate, Zhou said in the Caixin interview. Capital outflows need not be capital flight, and it would be hard to implement tighter controls because of the size of global trade, the movement of people and the number of Chinese living abroad, he added.

The country will not peg the yuan to a basket of currencies but rather will seek to rely more on a basket for reference and try to manage daily volatility versus the dollar, Zhou said. The bank also will use a wider range of macro-economic data to determine the exchange rate, he said.
Zhou’s remarks should provide some reassurance to investors, said Bloomberg Intelligence economists Tom Orlik and Fielding Chen. "The absence of public comment from Zhou during months of market turmoil was itself a source of uncertainty."


Packed Cinemas

Meantime, China’s economy continues to give mixed signals. While areas like consumption and services show signs of holding up, the manufacturing sector remains in the doldrums.

Retail sales over the Spring Festival holiday rose 11.2 percent from the same vacation period a year earlier, with cinemas posting sharp increases in box-office sales, the country’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement Saturday.

A fuller reading on how China’s economy has started 2016 won’t be available until next month, when fresh readings on retail sales, investment and industrial output are due.

"The flush monetary condition is expected to help buffer the acute downside risk in the Chinese economy," said Andy Ji, a Singapore-based foreign-exchange strategist and economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

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Mountainman:  That SOUNDS to Me WHAT???....You are Saying DOC....Well SAID.......IMO.........(8) BALL Corner POCKET!!!!!!!!....LOL

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Backdoc:  AS WE'VE POINTED OUT IN THE PAST RATIFICATION ON THESE TRADE DEALS ARE UNDER SERIOUS SCRUTINY DUE TO THE BREECH OF SOVREIGNTY!

WE WILL WATCH THIS AS IT PLAYS OUT!  DOC  IMO

Thunderhawk:  TTIP 'Could Prevent Tax Justice' Amid Concerns Over Corporate Courts

Any potential ratification of the controversial TTIP trade deal would play into the hands of large multinational corporations and threaten the ability of EU member states to crack down on tax evasion, new research has claimed.

A new study released by research advocate groups Transnational Institute (TNI) and Global Justice Now (GJN), has warned that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, otherwise known as TTIP, would seriously hamper efforts aimed at targeting tax avoidance, over fears that governments could be sued in corporate courts.

The report titled, 'Taxes on Trial: How Trade Deals Threaten Tax Justice' details how multinational corporations in 24 different countries have used what are known as 'corporate courts' — legal mechanisms included in many trade deals — to sue governments for introducing reforms deemed to harm investment opportunities — even if the reforms are regarded as beneficial for the public good.

The study argues that if the TTIP, currently being negotiated between the US and EU, is agreed and then ratified, the 'corporate court' feature would prevent signature countries from signing effective tax legislation amid fears it may trigger legal action.

"If member states of the EU tried to introduce tax practices with social or environmental benefits that meant that companies had to pay more, they could be subjected to a law suit in a closed door 'corporate court' that could result in damages of billions of pounds being awarded to the company," the report warned.

Corporate Grab Behind 'Toxic' Trade Deal

Following the hugely embarrassing LuxLeaks scandal of 2014, the findings come amid heightened debate about the issue of tax avoidance in Europe, with the European Commission last month launching new guidelines which it has claimed will stop multinationals from using loopholes to avoid paying tax.

The UK, which has jurisdiction over tax havens like the Cayman Islands, Jersey and Guernsey, was recently accused of striking a "sweetheart" deal with Internet giant Google, after announcing that the company would pay back only US$190 million (£130 million) worth of tax based the past decade's earnings.

Proponents of the TTIP, which is still in the negotiating phase, say the deal will be hugely beneficial to all parties involved as it will slash red-tape between the US and EU, allowing for more trade and business.

However, critics say it will wash away labor and environment standards in Europe and allow large multinational corporations to undermine the sovereignty of member states in such areas such as tax.

Nick Dearden, director of Global Justice Now said approving the TTIP "could effectively prevent us from bringing about laws that could address tax injustice."

"The ability to enact effective and fair tax systems to finance vital public services is one of the defining features of sovereignty. The fact that multinational companies would be able to challenge and undermine that under TTIP is testament to the terrifying extent of the corporate grab embedded in this toxic trade deal."

Concerns Over Corporate Courts

The issue of corporate courts, formally known as investor-state dispute settlement systems (ISDS), have been hugely controversial amid concerns over their transparency, objectiveness and the impacts they can have on national policy.

Proponents say such mechanisms are put in place to protect investors and ensure foreign investment is worthwhile, however critics argue that such measures are unjust and give unprecedented power to multinational corporations.


The report argues that such measures are unjust, noting that while corporations can sue governments for anything perceived to have breached investment potential, "there is no comparable system of international justice for states" to do the same.
"If a state has a dispute with a corporation over its tax bill, it can't launch an ISDS case — this is a one-way system, accessible only to foreign investors (domestic companies can't use it either)."

Cecilia Olivet from the Transnational Institute said the trade deals like TTIP need to be challenged to prevent such corporate courts from being allowed to operate in Europe.

"The evidence of the dangers of these investment deals continues to mount. Not only do they affect health and the environment and cost taxpayers millions in legal fees… they also affect the ability of governments to tax corporations effectively. This is yet more money lining the pockets of corporate executives stolen from the public taxpayer."

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Mountainman:  Soooo......COME One Come ALL.......It's "TIME" for IRAN and INVESTORS to Gather at "THE (8) BALL...WHEN????????........MARCH(8) of 2/016= a PAIR of (8)'s.......LOL.....IMO

Thunderhawk:   London to host 2 big economic summits on Iran next month

London will host an exclusive summit examining the opportunities and challenges surrounding Iran's reintegration into the global economy in early March.

Bringing the political and commercial leadership of Iran together with major international investors, corporations and civil society organizations, the FT Iran Summit will explore Iran’s potential as an economic powerhouse as well as the political, geopolitical and cultural forces shaping its future.

The Euromoney will contribute to holding the summit with the aim of taking the needed steps for return and integration of Iran's banks to the global economic market on March 8.

Iran is undoubtedly a blessed country. In addition to its vast reserves of natural resources, its vibrant culture makes it so much more than just another resource-rich developing economy.

Its young, technologically savvy and highly educated population has the potential to propel this country into a brave, new era.

Greater demand and much needed reform of key sectors will also open up new investor opportunities.

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BACKDOC:  GUYS, PATIENTS COME EARLY AND I NEED A KNAP!

WOW! IRAN SAID THEY WOULD ENTER SLOWLY BUT LESS THAN A MONTH!

THE SWIFT CODE ACTIVATING MAKES ONE WONDER WHERE IS THERE RATE HIDING! I'M SURE THEY CAN'T HIDE LONG!

I'M READY TO TEE OFF ON THE 18TH HOLE!!! HEE HEE

GOOD NIGHT ALL!   DOC    IMO


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