KTFA:
BACKDOC: WITH CURRENCY FLUCTUATIONS BECOMING SO DRAMATIC IN WORLD MARKETS, COMPANIES ARE UNABLE TO PREDICT PROFITS DUE TO DECLINING SALES AND MARGIN PRESSURES FROM COMPETITION IN THIS DEFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENT! (See article below)
WITH COMPANIES CHALLENGED FOR GROWTH AND YEILD, IT SEEMS A PROFIT DEATH SPIRAL IS IN PLAY FOR MANY COMPANIES.
THIS PROCESS TO THE DIGITAL WORLD MAY BE MORE CHALLENGING THAN THE SMARTEST EVEN KNOW!
HOW CAN YOU PLAN ANYTHING WHEN THE BASIS OF VALUE IS NEVER THE SAME? IMPOSSIBLE!
DOC IMO
....
BACKDOC: WITH CURRENCY FLUCTUATIONS BECOMING SO DRAMATIC IN WORLD MARKETS, COMPANIES ARE UNABLE TO PREDICT PROFITS DUE TO DECLINING SALES AND MARGIN PRESSURES FROM COMPETITION IN THIS DEFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENT! (See article below)
WITH COMPANIES CHALLENGED FOR GROWTH AND YEILD, IT SEEMS A PROFIT DEATH SPIRAL IS IN PLAY FOR MANY COMPANIES.
THIS PROCESS TO THE DIGITAL WORLD MAY BE MORE CHALLENGING THAN THE SMARTEST EVEN KNOW!
HOW CAN YOU PLAN ANYTHING WHEN THE BASIS OF VALUE IS NEVER THE SAME? IMPOSSIBLE!
DOC IMO
....
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
Morgan Stanley strategist: Our moves were 'horrendous'
Up is down, down is up, the bull is a bear, the bear is a bull and an economy in recovery is really in recession.
Such is the current state of the markets, according to Morgan Stanley strategists, who see a "Bizarro World" where nothing makes sense and it's getting tougher and tougher to make a buck.
"Everything seems backwards," Adam Parker, the firm's chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note to clients. "Sell winners, buy losers, own staples in both up and down markets. Just do the opposite of what makes sense."
The "Bizzaro" reference is familiar to Superman fans for a world where the Man of Steel is really a bad guy and everything else is upside down as well.
But for Morgan Stanley, it's been no comic book but rather stark reality. The firm's investment portfolio registered its worst month in more than five years — 61 months, to be exact — as the stock market got off to one of its worst starts ever this year.
"Our portfolio advice has been pretty horrendous lately," Parker confessed. He added:
For those who follow our portfolio, we did quite well over the five years from 2011-2015. But, our portfolio just had its worst month in 61 months in January,and things have not improved in February.The market is down more than we thought it would be. Our biggest sector bet has been financials (particularly credit cards). As an investor recently said to us at a conference, "I am doing a lot of things, just nothing with confidence." Doing the opposite of what were commended would have been better. Bizarro World. Or at least hopefully not the real world.
Parker and Morgan Stanley, of course, have plenty of company.
Most Wall Street firms had a fair amount of confidence and have been forced to walk back their aggressive forecasts in recent days. Barely a month into 2016 Bank of America Merrill Lunch on Friday cut its full-year S&P 500 forecast from 2,200 to 2,000. Wells Fargo on Tuesday followed by slicing its range from 2,230-2,330 to 2,000-2,100, a 10 percent reduction.
The typical investor portfolio had declined 10.35 percent year to date, according to Openfolio, which compiles the number from results of 60,000 users on its social networking site.
Parker reiterated many of the oft-cited factors working against the market, such as the sharp decline in energy prices, a slowdown in China and worries that the Fed might make a policy mistake.
He added a few: That the health of the U.S. consumer may have been overstated; an investor focus during earnings season on punishing companies that missed estimates rather than rewarding the beats; and fears that the fixed income market and its plunging bond yields are a more accurate forecaster of the road ahead than the optimistic equity market.
Added together, Parker still holds a generally bullish case for the market, stated with a contrarian twist:
The positives are this: No one is articulating a bull case for U.S. equities with conviction. Earnings expectations are potentially low.There is some fiscal stimulus this year (vs. drag previous years). The presidential candidates don't appear to be multiple expanders now, but they will get more centrist and the riffraff will be removed in a few more weeks. Sentiment is low (two weeks ago an investor on a panel we moderated said, "It is a multi-variable world and every variable is negative".) The U.S. probably looks relatively better than other parts of the world. So maybe, the bull case is just that no one can articulate a bull case.
From a strategic standpoint, Parker said the firm is "a bit more nervous than we were last year."
That translates to overweighting health care and utilities, staying underweight energy and cutting discretionary. Morgan Stanley also is cutting its position in American Express and Hewlett-Packard and upping its stake in Apple, among other moves.
http://ift.tt/1Og90q6 ... ndous.html
************
BACKDOC: THERE MAY BE MORE TO THIS STORY IN THE FUTURE! (see article below)
TOO BIG TO FAIL MAY BE BROKEN UP INTENTIONALLY TO SPREAD THE TOXIC DEBT AROUND SO THAT IT PREVENTS A COMPLETE SYTEM BREAKDOWN!
WE WILL KEEP OUR EYES ON THIS PROCESS! DOC IMO
Blinkster: That is along the lines of what I'm thinking, BackDoc. How on earth can just breaking up "too big to fail" banks solve any toxic financial problems (ie derivatives) that they already are infected with...unless, somehow, they can muddy the waters a bit by somehow spreading the infection around? How to get unencumbered banks to take on some of this negativity, or at least somehow to be burdened with it (let's share the problem, shall we??) is a big unknown at this time...
Dnari131: yep and sometimes the dam just breaks in a Blink..
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
Fed's Kashkari, in first speech, suggests radical Wall St. overhaul
The U.S. Federal Reserve's newest policymaker and a former point man for the government's bailout of the financial industry on Tuesday called on lawmakers to take radical action to rein in banks and protect taxpayers.
In his first speech as head of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, a Goldman Sachs executive before he worked at the U.S. Treasury, urged Congress to consider "bold, transformational" rules including the breaking up of the nation's largest banks to avoid bailouts.
Kashkari indicated that his work at Treasury, where he managed a key part of the banking and auto industry bailouts during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, helped inform his current view.
A set of regulations introduced since the crisis, known as Dodd-Frank, did not go far enough, he said in prepared remarks that straddled the line between the Fed's policymaking remit and political advocacy.
"Now is the right time for Congress to consider going further than Dodd-Frank with bold, transformational solutions to solve this problem once and for all," Kashkari said, arguing that the biggest banks are still too big to fail and continue to pose a significant, ongoing risk to the U.S. economy.
He urged lawmakers to consider breaking up large banks into "smaller, less connected, less important entities" and took a swipe at existing rules for winding down failing banks should they run into difficulty amid a weak global economy.
"I am far more skeptical that these tools will be useful," Kashkari said, adding that "we won't see the next crisis coming."
He said Congress should consider compelling banks to hold so much capital that they "virtually can't fail," in effect treating them like public utilities.
Speaking after his address, Kashkari said global economic and financial developments would be an "important" input when the Federal Reserve next meets on March 15-16.
He hewed closely to the Fed's January statement, saying he sees moderate growth and a gradual increase in interest rates. He declined to specify how many rate hikes there might be this year.
Kashkari added he does not expect negative rates will be needed in the United States but it was something the central bank could use if deemed necessary.
Financial markets have plunged amid slowing global growth and several central banks are using negative interest rates to avoid deflation and stimulate economic activity.
Kashkari took the helm of the Fed's smallest regional bank last month, two weeks after the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time in a decade.
He does not have a vote on the Fed's rate-setting committee until 2017 under its rotation system, but participates in deliberations.
http://ift.tt/1U7IgPU ... SKCN0VP1Y4
Morgan Stanley strategist: Our moves were 'horrendous'
Up is down, down is up, the bull is a bear, the bear is a bull and an economy in recovery is really in recession.
Such is the current state of the markets, according to Morgan Stanley strategists, who see a "Bizarro World" where nothing makes sense and it's getting tougher and tougher to make a buck.
"Everything seems backwards," Adam Parker, the firm's chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note to clients. "Sell winners, buy losers, own staples in both up and down markets. Just do the opposite of what makes sense."
The "Bizzaro" reference is familiar to Superman fans for a world where the Man of Steel is really a bad guy and everything else is upside down as well.
But for Morgan Stanley, it's been no comic book but rather stark reality. The firm's investment portfolio registered its worst month in more than five years — 61 months, to be exact — as the stock market got off to one of its worst starts ever this year.
"Our portfolio advice has been pretty horrendous lately," Parker confessed. He added:
For those who follow our portfolio, we did quite well over the five years from 2011-2015. But, our portfolio just had its worst month in 61 months in January,and things have not improved in February.The market is down more than we thought it would be. Our biggest sector bet has been financials (particularly credit cards). As an investor recently said to us at a conference, "I am doing a lot of things, just nothing with confidence." Doing the opposite of what were commended would have been better. Bizarro World. Or at least hopefully not the real world.
Parker and Morgan Stanley, of course, have plenty of company.
Most Wall Street firms had a fair amount of confidence and have been forced to walk back their aggressive forecasts in recent days. Barely a month into 2016 Bank of America Merrill Lunch on Friday cut its full-year S&P 500 forecast from 2,200 to 2,000. Wells Fargo on Tuesday followed by slicing its range from 2,230-2,330 to 2,000-2,100, a 10 percent reduction.
The typical investor portfolio had declined 10.35 percent year to date, according to Openfolio, which compiles the number from results of 60,000 users on its social networking site.
Parker reiterated many of the oft-cited factors working against the market, such as the sharp decline in energy prices, a slowdown in China and worries that the Fed might make a policy mistake.
He added a few: That the health of the U.S. consumer may have been overstated; an investor focus during earnings season on punishing companies that missed estimates rather than rewarding the beats; and fears that the fixed income market and its plunging bond yields are a more accurate forecaster of the road ahead than the optimistic equity market.
Added together, Parker still holds a generally bullish case for the market, stated with a contrarian twist:
The positives are this: No one is articulating a bull case for U.S. equities with conviction. Earnings expectations are potentially low.There is some fiscal stimulus this year (vs. drag previous years). The presidential candidates don't appear to be multiple expanders now, but they will get more centrist and the riffraff will be removed in a few more weeks. Sentiment is low (two weeks ago an investor on a panel we moderated said, "It is a multi-variable world and every variable is negative".) The U.S. probably looks relatively better than other parts of the world. So maybe, the bull case is just that no one can articulate a bull case.
From a strategic standpoint, Parker said the firm is "a bit more nervous than we were last year."
That translates to overweighting health care and utilities, staying underweight energy and cutting discretionary. Morgan Stanley also is cutting its position in American Express and Hewlett-Packard and upping its stake in Apple, among other moves.
http://ift.tt/1Og90q6 ... ndous.html
************
BACKDOC: THERE MAY BE MORE TO THIS STORY IN THE FUTURE! (see article below)
TOO BIG TO FAIL MAY BE BROKEN UP INTENTIONALLY TO SPREAD THE TOXIC DEBT AROUND SO THAT IT PREVENTS A COMPLETE SYTEM BREAKDOWN!
WE WILL KEEP OUR EYES ON THIS PROCESS! DOC IMO
Blinkster: That is along the lines of what I'm thinking, BackDoc. How on earth can just breaking up "too big to fail" banks solve any toxic financial problems (ie derivatives) that they already are infected with...unless, somehow, they can muddy the waters a bit by somehow spreading the infection around? How to get unencumbered banks to take on some of this negativity, or at least somehow to be burdened with it (let's share the problem, shall we??) is a big unknown at this time...
Dnari131: yep and sometimes the dam just breaks in a Blink..
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
Fed's Kashkari, in first speech, suggests radical Wall St. overhaul
The U.S. Federal Reserve's newest policymaker and a former point man for the government's bailout of the financial industry on Tuesday called on lawmakers to take radical action to rein in banks and protect taxpayers.
In his first speech as head of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, a Goldman Sachs executive before he worked at the U.S. Treasury, urged Congress to consider "bold, transformational" rules including the breaking up of the nation's largest banks to avoid bailouts.
Kashkari indicated that his work at Treasury, where he managed a key part of the banking and auto industry bailouts during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, helped inform his current view.
A set of regulations introduced since the crisis, known as Dodd-Frank, did not go far enough, he said in prepared remarks that straddled the line between the Fed's policymaking remit and political advocacy.
"Now is the right time for Congress to consider going further than Dodd-Frank with bold, transformational solutions to solve this problem once and for all," Kashkari said, arguing that the biggest banks are still too big to fail and continue to pose a significant, ongoing risk to the U.S. economy.
He urged lawmakers to consider breaking up large banks into "smaller, less connected, less important entities" and took a swipe at existing rules for winding down failing banks should they run into difficulty amid a weak global economy.
"I am far more skeptical that these tools will be useful," Kashkari said, adding that "we won't see the next crisis coming."
He said Congress should consider compelling banks to hold so much capital that they "virtually can't fail," in effect treating them like public utilities.
Speaking after his address, Kashkari said global economic and financial developments would be an "important" input when the Federal Reserve next meets on March 15-16.
He hewed closely to the Fed's January statement, saying he sees moderate growth and a gradual increase in interest rates. He declined to specify how many rate hikes there might be this year.
Kashkari added he does not expect negative rates will be needed in the United States but it was something the central bank could use if deemed necessary.
Financial markets have plunged amid slowing global growth and several central banks are using negative interest rates to avoid deflation and stimulate economic activity.
Kashkari took the helm of the Fed's smallest regional bank last month, two weeks after the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time in a decade.
He does not have a vote on the Fed's rate-setting committee until 2017 under its rotation system, but participates in deliberations.
http://ift.tt/1U7IgPU ... SKCN0VP1Y4
Mountainman: ???......Is it "TIME" to MOVE the GLOBAL OIL Budgets FORWARD.....As Negotiations UNVEIL and NEW CONTRACTS "Expose"..... IRAQ/IRAN to Re-ENTER the GLOBAL STAGE w/Their "NEW VALUES" ???.....Many other Countries have Agreed to Halt Production as WELL=ALL PUMPS are "PRIMED for TIME"!!!!!!!!.....IMO Blessings,Mountainman
BACKDOC: IRAQ HAS THE SPIRIT OF COOPERATION, AND IS READY AND WILLING BUT IRAN IS SEEMS TO BE A HOLD OUT SO NOTHING WILL HAPPEN UNTIL THERE MAY BE SERIOUS PAIN IN THE MARKETS!
WITH A 3 TO 7 DOLLAR EXTRACTION COST , IRAN AND IRAQ HAVE A MAJOR ADVANTAGE OVER OTHER COUNTRIES! LOWEST EXTRACTION COSTS WIN! DOC IMO
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
Iraq ready to freeze oil output at January levels pending deal - source
Iraq is ready to commit to freezing its oil production at January levels if a deal is reached among OPEC and non-OPEC countries, an Iraqi oil ministry source said on Tuesday.
"Iraq is with any decision that contributes to propping up oil prices," the source said.
Top oil exporters Russia and Saudi Arabia have agreed to freeze output levels but said the deal was contingent on other producers joining in - a major sticking point with Iran absent from the talks and determined to raise production.
The Saudi, Russian, Qatari and Venezuelan oil ministers announced the proposal after a previously undisclosed meeting in Doha. It could become the first joint OPEC and non-OPEC deal in 15 years, aimed at tackling a growing oversupply of crude and helping prices recover from their lowest in over a decade.
Iraq's oil ministry said on Tuesday production hit a record high in January, with crude output from all the country's fields, including those controlled by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), averaging 4.775 million barrels per day (bpd).
It said earlier in the month that production from southern fields, excluding KRG-controlled fields, had dropped to 3.9 million bpd in January from 4.13 million bpd the previous month, itself a record high for the southern fields alone.
The KRG does not disclose production figures for fields in the autonomous northern region and the disputed Kirkuk field, which is operated by Iraq's state-run North Oil Co but has been under Kurdish control since June 2014. It has said exports via pipeline to Turkey rose to an average of 601,811 bpd in January.
Exports via the pipeline increased steadily last year as the Kurds cut allocations to Iraq's state oil marketing firm SOMO from June, ramping up their own independent crude sales in an effort to tackle an acute economic crisis.
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi on Monday suggested a deal on sharing oil and revenues between Baghdad and Erbil could be revived if the KRG stopped selling oil independently.
http://ift.tt/1U7Ijet ... SKCN0VP1R8
BACKDOC: IRAQ HAS THE SPIRIT OF COOPERATION, AND IS READY AND WILLING BUT IRAN IS SEEMS TO BE A HOLD OUT SO NOTHING WILL HAPPEN UNTIL THERE MAY BE SERIOUS PAIN IN THE MARKETS!
WITH A 3 TO 7 DOLLAR EXTRACTION COST , IRAN AND IRAQ HAVE A MAJOR ADVANTAGE OVER OTHER COUNTRIES! LOWEST EXTRACTION COSTS WIN! DOC IMO
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
Iraq ready to freeze oil output at January levels pending deal - source
Iraq is ready to commit to freezing its oil production at January levels if a deal is reached among OPEC and non-OPEC countries, an Iraqi oil ministry source said on Tuesday.
"Iraq is with any decision that contributes to propping up oil prices," the source said.
Top oil exporters Russia and Saudi Arabia have agreed to freeze output levels but said the deal was contingent on other producers joining in - a major sticking point with Iran absent from the talks and determined to raise production.
The Saudi, Russian, Qatari and Venezuelan oil ministers announced the proposal after a previously undisclosed meeting in Doha. It could become the first joint OPEC and non-OPEC deal in 15 years, aimed at tackling a growing oversupply of crude and helping prices recover from their lowest in over a decade.
Iraq's oil ministry said on Tuesday production hit a record high in January, with crude output from all the country's fields, including those controlled by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), averaging 4.775 million barrels per day (bpd).
It said earlier in the month that production from southern fields, excluding KRG-controlled fields, had dropped to 3.9 million bpd in January from 4.13 million bpd the previous month, itself a record high for the southern fields alone.
The KRG does not disclose production figures for fields in the autonomous northern region and the disputed Kirkuk field, which is operated by Iraq's state-run North Oil Co but has been under Kurdish control since June 2014. It has said exports via pipeline to Turkey rose to an average of 601,811 bpd in January.
Exports via the pipeline increased steadily last year as the Kurds cut allocations to Iraq's state oil marketing firm SOMO from June, ramping up their own independent crude sales in an effort to tackle an acute economic crisis.
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi on Monday suggested a deal on sharing oil and revenues between Baghdad and Erbil could be revived if the KRG stopped selling oil independently.
http://ift.tt/1U7Ijet ... SKCN0VP1R8
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