KTFA:
BACKDOC: THUNDER ITS AN OBVIOUS FACT IN WORLD MARKETS THAT THE YUAN HAS BEEN UNDER PRESSURE TO DEVALUE SINCE CHINA HAS BEEN BURNING THROUGH ITS RESERVES TO DEFEND ITS CURRENCY!
WE SEE CHINA CONTINUE TO SAY THEY ARE KEEPING THE YUAN STABLE!
HAVE THEY BEEN WAITING TO DECOUPLE THE YUAN WHEN ALL COUNTRIES ARE READY TO RESET?
MMMM THEY KEEP TALKING ABOUT DE PEGGING AGAINST THE DOLLAR BUT SO FAR NO ACTION!
SEEMS LIKE A LOGICAL TIME TO DO IT IS THE BEGINNING OF THEIR NEW YEAR WHICH IS THE 8TH! MMMM
OH BY GOSH BY GOLLY ITS..... SLAP! DOC QUIT MESSIN AROUND THIS IS SERIOUS STUFF!
....
BACKDOC: THUNDER ITS AN OBVIOUS FACT IN WORLD MARKETS THAT THE YUAN HAS BEEN UNDER PRESSURE TO DEVALUE SINCE CHINA HAS BEEN BURNING THROUGH ITS RESERVES TO DEFEND ITS CURRENCY!
WE SEE CHINA CONTINUE TO SAY THEY ARE KEEPING THE YUAN STABLE!
HAVE THEY BEEN WAITING TO DECOUPLE THE YUAN WHEN ALL COUNTRIES ARE READY TO RESET?
MMMM THEY KEEP TALKING ABOUT DE PEGGING AGAINST THE DOLLAR BUT SO FAR NO ACTION!
SEEMS LIKE A LOGICAL TIME TO DO IT IS THE BEGINNING OF THEIR NEW YEAR WHICH IS THE 8TH! MMMM
OH BY GOSH BY GOLLY ITS..... SLAP! DOC QUIT MESSIN AROUND THIS IS SERIOUS STUFF!
....
OHH I'M SORRY
I THINK TWO SHIA BROTHERS WERE SUPPOSED TO TEAM UP AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL. BAAA HAA (Iraq and Iran)
WELL, WE WILL SEE IF THEY FOLLOW THROUGH BUT THIS DECOUPLING NARRATIVE RAISED MY EYEBROW TODAY! HEE HEE
8@8, DOC IMO
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Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
U.S. Treasury Secretary urges China to communicate FX policy clearly
U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew reiterated to China the importance of transitioning to a market-determined exchange rate in an orderly and transparent way, the Treasury said on Wednesday.
During a phone call with Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang on Tuesday evening, Lew also urged Beijing to clearly communicate its exchange rate policies and actions to financial markets, the Treasury said in a statement.
Wang said in the call that China remained capable of keeping the exchange rate of China's currency, the renminbi, "basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level", the official Xinhua news agency reported late on Wednesday.
Xinhua added Wang and Lew also discussed how to push forward a bilateral investment treaty, under discussion for much of last year, to help improve business ties between the two countries.
http://ift.tt/1TGkomn ... SKCN0VC1OL
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BACKDOC: CLEARLY, WE ARE ONE FINANCIAL STUMBLE FROM MORE THAN A STUBBED TOE! LOL (see article below)
IF WE SEE THE ACCIDENT ON PURPOSE, THE FINANCIAL LANDSCAPE WILL END UP A LOT DIFFERENT THAN IT IS TODAY!
WHICH CURRENCIES WILL SURVIVE AND WHICH ONES WILL GO? HOW WILL THIS ASSET BACKED TRANSITION TAKE PLACE INTO THE NEW REALITY?
WILL THERE BE A BANKRUPT EURO?
WHAT ASSETS ARE THERE TO BACK IT? NONE! ITS ONLY BACK BY A TREATY AND THAT TREATY IS UNDER PRESSURE WITH THE SHENZENG AGREEMENT AS WELL AS CATALONIA SPLITTING FROM SPAIN!
OH AND LETS NOT FORGET ABOUT GREECE AND POSSIBLY GREAT BRITAIN EXITING THE EURO!
CERTAINLY PRESSURE IS MOUNTING! WHERE WILL THE SYSTEM BLOW UP AT?
DOC IMO
************
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
VIDEO: European banks near 'terrifying' crisis: Raoul Pal
With European banks sitting at multiyear lows, one widely followed market watcher said some of the biggest ones could go bankrupt.
Former hedge fund manager and Goldman Sachs alumnus Raoul Pal said his scenario is one most investors aren't looking at right now.
Pal said the banking issues have the potential to overtake risks associated with China's growth slowdown and cheap oil.
"So many of these [bank stocks] are falling so sharply. I think people haven't even caught up with what is going on, and that really concerns me," the founder of Global Macro Investor told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Tuesday. "I look at the big long-term share charts of them, and I think this looks very terrifying indeed. I have not seen anything like this for a long time."
For Pal, negative interest rates are the chief reason why the bank stocks are in trouble. He said European banks have a tougher time coping in the environment than U.S. banks.
The major European banks, he added, are already being stretched by global worries and issues within the banking system. He said the trouble could spread to U.S. banks.
He suggested going short in this type of market despite a potential "free-fall" scenario
http://ift.tt/1VQi0I7 ... l-pal.html
BACKDOC: BOY, THAT'S A BET I WOULDN'T TAKE IN LIGHT OF THE POSSIBILITIES!! (see article below)
CAN YOU IMAGINE HOW THE MARKET WOULD REACT IF INSTEAD OF DEVALUING THE YUAN DE PEGS ALONG WITH SAUDI ARABIA?
IF THE SAUDIS' SWITCH THEIR SETTLEMENT OF OIL SALES TO BE IN YUAN THERE WOULD BE NO REASON TO DEVALUE THE YUAN WOULD THERE?
ALSO THE SAUDIS WOULD WIN BIG BECAUSE THEY GET A HIGHLY VALUED CURRENCY THATS COMPATIBLE WITH THEIR MUSLIM BROTHERS AND TRADING PARTNERS! MMMMM
COULD THIS BE WHY "OK JACK" WANTS THEM TO WARN THE MARKETS AND BE CLEAR? MMMMM HOW IN THE WORLD COULD THEY TELL THE MARKETS THAT?
THAT WOULD CREATE A BLACK SWAN EVENT FOR SURE!
I HAD A CHANCE TO VISIT OZ AND HE TOLD ME GOVERNMENTS AND PEOPLE WILL QUESTION WHAT IS OR WILL BE A RESERVE CURRENCY THEY CAN TRUST IN?
HEE HEE DOC IMO
************
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
Bets against China's yuan build as traders eye G20 deal
Billions of dollars in new bets against China's yuan have been placed on derivatives markets this week as currency dealers weigh the chance of an official devaluation around this month's G20 finance chiefs' meeting in Shanghai.
Yuan volatility and the bias toward a weaker yuan in options markets have surged to record highs in the past week and dealers say billions of "low delta puts", which pay out only when the offshore yuan rate gets above 7.20 per dollar, have been taken out.
The yuan is also back under pressure in the offshore spot market, falling to a three-week low of 6.6510 yuan as London opened on Wednesday CNH=D3. Onshore rates, which China controls tightly, were steady at 6.5778 CNY=.
One-month volatility on the offshore yuan jumped from below 8 percent to almost 10 percent, a record high, versus 8.5 percent on the euro-dollar equivalent.
Traders said option volumes - difficult to track because most of the market is conducted over-the-counter rather than on traceable platforms or exchanges - reached $12 billion on Monday and almost $17 billion on Tuesday.
In morning trade in London, when dealers in the world's biggest currency trading center are operating alongside their counterparts in Beijing and Shanghai, the bias toward a weaker yuan - essentially a net measurement - on 1-, 2-, 3- and 6-month contracts all surpassed record levels hit in August.
"Clearly, the market sees that the intensive intervention from PBoC (People's Bank of China) is not sustainable, and therefore the central bank will have to let the currency go at some point," said Hao Zhou, a currency strategist at Commerzbank in Singapore.
Much talk centers around how much more China will have leaked in reserves in January, in data due by the end of this week.
Reuters polling ECONCN of more than a dozen banks puts the fall at a record $130 billion, reducing China's war chest to combat yuan weakness to $3.2 trillion.
Some hedge funds betting against the yuan have speculated the drop will be $200 billion or more. The sales desk of one large international bank in London was circulating an estimate of $262 billion to selected clients on Tuesday in an email seen by Reuters.
WARNINGS
Analysts from Bank of America Merrill Lynch called on Friday for G20 financial leaders to agree next month in Shanghai to joint steps that would include a one-off devaluation of the yuan and a commitment to a stable dollar to prop up flagging growth and head off another financial market panic.
Against that, China has repeatedly warned "speculators" in the run up to the week-long Lunar New Year starting this weekend that it will keep the yuan steady.
China launches its 12-month presidency of the G20 group of developed and developing economies with the Shanghai meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors on Feb. 26-27.
Another big report this week on the yuan, from analysts at French bank Societe Generale, gave a one-in-three probability of the currency sliding to 7.50 by the end of 2016.
"The People's Bank of China (PBoC) may insist that it has no intention to devalue the yuan, but capital flows are putting significant downward pressure on the currency. China's FX reserves are large but far from unlimited, or even sufficient, if large capital outflows persist.
"Our central scenario (65 percent probability) envisions USD/CNY reaching 6.80 in 2016 in a largely gradual and controlled manner, but there is a large and growing risk that USD/CNY trades up to 7.50 this year."
http://ift.tt/1VQi22C ... SKCN0VC1HU
CAN YOU IMAGINE HOW THE MARKET WOULD REACT IF INSTEAD OF DEVALUING THE YUAN DE PEGS ALONG WITH SAUDI ARABIA?
IF THE SAUDIS' SWITCH THEIR SETTLEMENT OF OIL SALES TO BE IN YUAN THERE WOULD BE NO REASON TO DEVALUE THE YUAN WOULD THERE?
ALSO THE SAUDIS WOULD WIN BIG BECAUSE THEY GET A HIGHLY VALUED CURRENCY THATS COMPATIBLE WITH THEIR MUSLIM BROTHERS AND TRADING PARTNERS! MMMMM
COULD THIS BE WHY "OK JACK" WANTS THEM TO WARN THE MARKETS AND BE CLEAR? MMMMM HOW IN THE WORLD COULD THEY TELL THE MARKETS THAT?
THAT WOULD CREATE A BLACK SWAN EVENT FOR SURE!
I HAD A CHANCE TO VISIT OZ AND HE TOLD ME GOVERNMENTS AND PEOPLE WILL QUESTION WHAT IS OR WILL BE A RESERVE CURRENCY THEY CAN TRUST IN?
HEE HEE DOC IMO
************
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
Bets against China's yuan build as traders eye G20 deal
Billions of dollars in new bets against China's yuan have been placed on derivatives markets this week as currency dealers weigh the chance of an official devaluation around this month's G20 finance chiefs' meeting in Shanghai.
Yuan volatility and the bias toward a weaker yuan in options markets have surged to record highs in the past week and dealers say billions of "low delta puts", which pay out only when the offshore yuan rate gets above 7.20 per dollar, have been taken out.
The yuan is also back under pressure in the offshore spot market, falling to a three-week low of 6.6510 yuan as London opened on Wednesday CNH=D3. Onshore rates, which China controls tightly, were steady at 6.5778 CNY=.
One-month volatility on the offshore yuan jumped from below 8 percent to almost 10 percent, a record high, versus 8.5 percent on the euro-dollar equivalent.
Traders said option volumes - difficult to track because most of the market is conducted over-the-counter rather than on traceable platforms or exchanges - reached $12 billion on Monday and almost $17 billion on Tuesday.
In morning trade in London, when dealers in the world's biggest currency trading center are operating alongside their counterparts in Beijing and Shanghai, the bias toward a weaker yuan - essentially a net measurement - on 1-, 2-, 3- and 6-month contracts all surpassed record levels hit in August.
"Clearly, the market sees that the intensive intervention from PBoC (People's Bank of China) is not sustainable, and therefore the central bank will have to let the currency go at some point," said Hao Zhou, a currency strategist at Commerzbank in Singapore.
Much talk centers around how much more China will have leaked in reserves in January, in data due by the end of this week.
Reuters polling ECONCN of more than a dozen banks puts the fall at a record $130 billion, reducing China's war chest to combat yuan weakness to $3.2 trillion.
Some hedge funds betting against the yuan have speculated the drop will be $200 billion or more. The sales desk of one large international bank in London was circulating an estimate of $262 billion to selected clients on Tuesday in an email seen by Reuters.
WARNINGS
Analysts from Bank of America Merrill Lynch called on Friday for G20 financial leaders to agree next month in Shanghai to joint steps that would include a one-off devaluation of the yuan and a commitment to a stable dollar to prop up flagging growth and head off another financial market panic.
Against that, China has repeatedly warned "speculators" in the run up to the week-long Lunar New Year starting this weekend that it will keep the yuan steady.
China launches its 12-month presidency of the G20 group of developed and developing economies with the Shanghai meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors on Feb. 26-27.
Another big report this week on the yuan, from analysts at French bank Societe Generale, gave a one-in-three probability of the currency sliding to 7.50 by the end of 2016.
"The People's Bank of China (PBoC) may insist that it has no intention to devalue the yuan, but capital flows are putting significant downward pressure on the currency. China's FX reserves are large but far from unlimited, or even sufficient, if large capital outflows persist.
"Our central scenario (65 percent probability) envisions USD/CNY reaching 6.80 in 2016 in a largely gradual and controlled manner, but there is a large and growing risk that USD/CNY trades up to 7.50 this year."
http://ift.tt/1VQi22C ... SKCN0VC1HU
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